Severe Thunderstorm Warning 401, NWS Tulsa, OK

FPUS3 KTUL 070854
AFDTUL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
355 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 1994

SCTD TRW HV FINALLY DVLPD AND MOVD INTO ZNS 54/59 THIS MORN AS UPR SYSM
AND COLD FRONT EDGE CLOSER. XPCT ACTIVITY TO CONT TO DVLP AS FRONT MOVES
INTO FA THIS AFTN AND 65 TO 70 DEWPTS MOVE NWD FROM TX. WL GO LIKELY
POPS IN ALL AREAS XPC SE CORNER FOR TDA. FRONT SHUD PASS TUL ARND 18-19Z
AND SHUD EXTD FROM JAY-MLC BY 00Z. FRONT WL THEN EASE SLOWLY SE INTO
SE CORNER DURING THE DAY SAT.

BY TONITE...XPCT A LARGE AREA OF SOLID RW/TRW TO DVLP OVR NRLY ALL OF FA
AS RICH DEEP LYRD MSTR OVERRUNS FRONT IN STG SWLY UPR FLOW REGIME.
MODELS INDICATE THAT A SHARP NW EDGE OF THIS PCPN AREA WILL EXTD SW TO
NE ACRS MY NRN ZNS...SO PLACEMENT OF CATEGORICAL POPS IS TRICKY. FOR
THIS FCST WL COUNT ON TUL BEING WITHIN THE LARGE PCPN AREA MOST OF NITE
WITH BVO BEING NEAR THE EDGE OF THE SOLID RAIN.  PCPN SHUD END FROM
NW TO SE ON SAT...AND FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE SE SAT NITE.

TEMPS TDA TO RISE ONLY TO 75-80 NORTH AND 80-85 SOUTH AS THICK CLD CVR...
RAIN...AND CAA HOLD TEMPS DOWN. NGM MOS HAS GUD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR
TONITE AND SAT AND WL FOLLOW CLOSELY.
                                                          /9

TUL 77/53/65/44 6741       MLC 80/57/64/47 7964
BVO 77/52/67/42 6621       IDB 84/64/71/53 3776

.TUL...NONE.