Severe Thunderstorm Warning 361, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 1994

OK MESONET DATA SHOWS SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM MIAMI TO CLAREMORE TO
TULSA TO DRUMRIGHT TO EDMOND TO REYDON. ERN OK PORTION OF BOUNDARY HAS
REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE WRN OK PORTION HAS
SAGGED SLOWLY SOUTH. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE POOLED JUST NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY IN NE OK BUT EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC
HEATING IN THIS AREA AND HAS NOT ALLOWED THE CAP TO BE BROKEN THUS FAR.

STILL ANTICIPATE THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS LIKELY BECOMING
SEVERE. EVEN IF STORMS FAIL TO DEVELOP...NEARLY SOLID AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD MOVE INTO NE OK THIS EVENING
SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN NE OK TONIGHT WITH LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH.

SATELLITE LOOPS AND PROFILER VORTICITY GRAPHIC 5MV SUPPORTS THE NGM ON
THE VORT MAX CURRENTLY IN NRN KS WITH THE ETA MUCH TOO STRONG AND SLOW.
EXTRAPOLATION FROM WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATES THAT THE NGM 00Z
POSITION OF THE VORT MAX IN SW MO WILL BE QUITE CLOSE.

ETA DRIVES SFC FRONT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN EITHER THE NGM OR AVN
PROBABLY DUE TO ITS STRONGER SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER IN THIS INSTANCE FEEL
THAT THE ETA MAY BE MOST CORRECT FOR THE WRONG REASON AS CONVECTION
WHICH DEVELOPS NEAR THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE FRONT TO SAG SOUTH
INTO SE OK.

MODELS CANNOT AGREE ON TIMING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE LATER PERIODS
AND POSITIONING OF SFC FRONT IS ALSO NOT CERTAIN ATTM. SCATTERED TSTMS
LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BUT HARD TO PINPOINT MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE STORMS IN ERN OK.
THUS WILL KEEP ALL POPS AT 40% IN THE LATER PERIODS. AM COUNTING ON THE
NGM AND AVN MODELS BEING MOST CORRECT WITH THE 850 MB FLOW...OTHERWISE
POPS IN NE OK MAY BE OVERDONE.

NGM MOS TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE WITH COOLER TEMPS 2IN NE OK WHERE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE GREATEST. WILL ADJUST MIN TEMPS DOWN THOUGH IN NE OK DUE
TO RAIN COOLED AIR.

TUL 70/88/70/88/70  6444    MLC 72/92/72/91/72  4444
BVO 68/87/68/87/68  6444    IDB 72/93/72/93/72  3444

.TUL...NONE.

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