Severe Thunderstorm Warning 351, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
855 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 1994

HI CLDS SPRDG SE FROM CONVECTION OVR CO/NE WL MAKE SKIES PC TONITE. MID
LVLS NOT AS MOIST AS 24 HRS AGO PER EVE SNDGS...BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT
A LATE NITE HI BASED STORM OR TWO OVR FA. WL KEEP 20 POPS IN FCST AS
UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS OVR FA. SFC ANAL THIS EVE HAS WEAK SFC BNDRY FROM
HRO TO TUL TO DHT---MSTR CONVERGENCE NR THIS BNDRY CUD ALSO LEAD TO A
STORM WITH UPDRAFT ROOTED IN BLYR.

APPRS MUCH MORE ACTIVE WX FOR ERN OK IS LESS THAN 24 HRS AWAY. THE 12Z
MODELS...ESP NGM...STRONGLY HINT AT SIG CONVECTION DLPG OVER KS BY MID
AFTN ON SUNDAY WITH CONVECTION SPRDG AND DVLPG SEWD TWD ERN OK LATE
SUNDAY AFTN. ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE AIDED BY SEWD MOVING SHORTWV WHICH
SHOWS UP WELL ON 00Z 700 MB DATA ACRS CO/WY.  SOME SVR TRW LIKELY NR OR
JUST N OF THE SFC BNDRY MENTIONED ABOVE...WHICH SHUD REMAIN QSTNRY THRU
EARLY SUN AFTN. ACTIVITY LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS OR MCC BY SUN
EVE AND CONT SE ACRS SRN MO/NRN ARK. CUD BE SOME HEAVY RAINS IN VCNTY
ERN OK...WITH MOST LIKELY AREA BOUNDED BY MKO-PNC-EMP-SGF ACCORDING TO
12Z PROGS. AFTN PKG HAS GOOD HANDL ON THE SITUATION...BUT MID XSHIFT MAY
NEED TO UP POPS IN THE EXTRM NRN ZNS FOR SUN AFTN AS ACTIVITY DVLPS NR
BNDRY.
                                                     /09

.TUL...NONE.