Severe Thunderstorm Warning 339, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
325 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 1994

A GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE WRLYS OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE CNTRY
WILL RESULT IN A WK NW FLOW REGIME FOR ERN OK THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
PREFER THE NGM/AVN HANDLING OF 2 WK SHRTWVS FCST TO MV ACRS KS DURG
THE PD.  THE FIRST OF THESE IS EXPECTED OVR WRN KS LATE
TONITE/EARLY SUN WHICH WILL HELP FUEL A MCS TO OUR NW. WITH MID LVL
FLOW AND 850-300 THICKNESS LINES BEING A LTL MORE
NWLY...THERE IS A CHC THAT THE MCS MAY MV OVR NRN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA SUN MRNG (MUCH LIKE WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT...TO MY
SURPRISE).  SO WL KEEP HIGHER POPS OVR NRN ZNS FOR TONIGHT.

SECOND SHRTWV SHUD MV OUT OF CNTRL LEE OF ROCKIES SUN EVENING AND
INTO CNTRL KS BY MON MORNING.  LIS IN THE -4 TO -6 RNG AND PWS AOA
1.6 INCHES ARE FCST OVR CNTRL KS 36-48 HRS. EXPECT LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE/THERMAL AXIS ASSOCD WITH STNRY FNT WL BE THE FOCUS FOR
YET ANOTHER MCS ACRS KS LATE SUN.  AGAIN...THIS MCS CUD AFFECT
MAINLY THE NRN ZNS AS IT TRACKS ESE IN THE NWLY UPR FLOW.
INCIDENTLY...THESE 2 MCS EVENTS SHOW UP VRY NICELY IN THE MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE LOOP FM THE GRIDDED NGM DATA.  IN ADDITION...THERE
CUD BE SOME DECENT RNFL OVR FAR NERN OK AS NOTED BY LATEST 98Q FM
NMC QPF BRANCH.

TEMPWISE...LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER FWC NUMBERS FOR
DAYTIME MAXES...BUT THESE STILL SHOWS A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR SUN
INTO MON.

IN THE MED RNG...MRF AND WHAT LTL WE GET OF THE UMKET/ECMWF ALL
SHOW SOME DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE RDG OVR THE WRN U.S.  THIS
IN TURN CREATES A DEEPER TROF OVR THE E...AND SHARPENS THE NWLY
FLOW OVR OK.  WITH THE INCREASE IN THE NWLY FLOW...OK HAS A SHOT AT
A FROPA AND INCREASING POPS BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THAT
IT IS SUMMER...I SUSPECT THAT THE MRF IS OVERAMPLIFIED WITH THE
BOTH THE WRN U.S. RDG AND ERN US.S TROF.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TUL 72/93 73/94 222  BVO 71/94 71/95 322
MLC 71/94 72/95 111  IDB 72/92 73/93 111

.TUL...NONE.
HODGES