Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Tulsa, OK

FPUS3 KTUL 252040

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
340 PM CDT WED MAY 25 1994

THE NEXT 18 HOURS WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AT TUL
THIS MONTH...WILL IT BE THE DRIEST MAY ON RECORD???

NGM AND AVN BOTH AGREE THAT NOTHING MAJOR WILL HAPPEN IN ERN OK FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND CURRENT RADAR AND ADAP GRAPHICS SEEM TO
CONCUR. A FEW AIRMASS STORMS HAVE FIRED IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN OF
EXTREME ERN OK AND NW AR BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA REMAINS VERY DIFFUSE AND APPEARS TO BE
JUST SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER ATTM. LITTLE OR NO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CAN BE FOUND NEAR THE FRONT TO HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION HOWEVER.

WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS ERN OK AS A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SE NEBRASKA APPROACHES THE AREA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STRONG TO SEVERE
TSTMS MAY MOVE INTO NE OK AFTER MIDNIGHT AND STORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY
EITHER DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO SE OK.

FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF TULSA BY MORNING AND WILL MOVE INTO FAR SE OK
BY THURSDAY EVENING AND OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER SYSTEM
WILL TRACK EAST FROM AZ INTO TX BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN SE OK WHERE OVERRUNNING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES IN NE OK AFTER ABOUT
MID MORNING THURSDAY AS DEEPER NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PENETRATE INTO
THAT AREA AND LIMIT OVERRUNNING. WILL DROP ALL PRECIP AFTER THURSDAY
NORTH OF TULSA AND ONLY GO WITH 20% POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AT
TULSA BUT AM AFRAID THIS IS ONLY WISHFUL THINKING...IF IT DOES NOT RAIN
IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS...IT PROBABLY WILL NOT RAIN AGAIN IN MAY.

WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF GUIDANCE THE NEXT TWO DAYS
ONLY BECAUSE THE SUN MAY COME OUT IN NE OK BUT WILL UNDERCUT THE NGM
MOS MINS. WILL ALSO GO BELOW THE NGM MOS POPS IN NE OK AFTER TONIGHT.

TUL 59/74/55/73/56  5322    MLC 65/76/59/75/59  7654
BVO 57/74/52/73/53  4211    IDB 65/84/62/78/60  6765

.TUL...NONE.

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OKZ054>077-261200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT WED MAY 25 1994

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT...

MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO BECOME
SEVERE...AND SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW OF THESE COULD SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. A STORM
OR TWO MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS IN PITTSBURG...HASKELL AND
LATIMER COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING BUT THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THOSE AREAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO GIVE EASTERN OKLAHOMA A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABILIZED SOMEWHAT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING BUT THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY LIFT PRODUCED BY THE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG A JAY TO OKEMA LINE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN TOO WEAK TO
SUPPORT LONG LIVED ROTATION IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

SPOTTER NETWORKS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AND BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TONIGHT.