Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 PM CDT TUE APR 26 1994

OK MESONET SHOWS DRYLINE ALONG A NOWATA/TULSA/CHANDLER LINE AT 20Z.
DRYLINE IS NOW DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST IN THE TUL AREA. TSTM DEVELOPMENT
NOW OCCURRING IN CENTRAL OK AND EXPECT THIS DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE UP
THE CONVERGENT AXIS INTO NE OK THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH STORMS
FURTHER SOUTH LIKELY TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THE
LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND RATHER WEAK UPPER SUPPORT. EXPECT
DRYLINE TO RETREAT TONIGHT BUT ARCTIC FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH NE OK
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BE A LITTLE NORTH OF MLC BY 12Z.

COLD AIR WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND FRONT WILL STALL AS IT REACHES THE
HILLS OF SE OK DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. STRENGTH OF COLD AIR AND SHAPE
OF THE SFC ISOBARS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DESPITE THE BACKING UPPER FLOW AND THE STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET. SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WELL. SEVERE STORMS SEEM LIKELY BOTH IN THE WARM SECTOR AND IN THE
COLD SFC AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT.

SFC WAVE EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO WRN OR NW AR BY THURSDAY MORNING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE MODEL FCSTS WITH COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH SE OK
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

NGM MOS TEMPS MUCH TOO WARM IN NE OK THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD DUE TO THE
MODEL KEEPING THE FRONT TO THE NORTH BUT SE OK TEMPS LOOK CLOSE.

TUL 53/59/53/58/40  6582    MLC 65/76/59/65/45  5573
BVO 49/54/49/55/37  3572    IDB 66/87/64/76/52  3553

.TUL...NONE.

PLATE

OKZ054>077-261830-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT TUE APR 26 1994

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THE THREAT AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM MIAMI TO TULSA TO BOLEY...IN OKFUSKEE COUNTY.

WARM...MOIST...AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR HAS REMAINS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
A DRY LINE HAS DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EXTENDING FROM NEAR JOPLIN TO TULSA TO NORTH OF ARDMORE.  THIS DRY LINE
WILL HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING
INCREASES.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERLLY MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
AT AROUND 30 MPH

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME.  AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH.  HOWEVER
...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT
AND MAY CAUSE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

A TORNADO WATCH...NUMBER 126...HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT.

AT 130 PM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.  THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST AND MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SPOTTERS ACTIVITATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MID
AFTERNOON.  SPOTTER ACTIVITATION MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

OKC077-121-262045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
243 PM CDT TUE APR 26 1994

AT 240 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING
ACROSS COAL...JOHNSTON...AND ATOKA COUNTIES. THIS CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN PITTSBURG COUNTY DURING THE
NEXT HOUR. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND AN OCCASIONAL TORNADO.

PERSONS IN PITTSBURG COUNTY SHOULD REMAIN ALERT...IN CASE A SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING IS NEEDED DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.