Tornado Warning 39, NWS Norman, OK

FPUS3 KOKC 172000
AFDOKC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
300 PM CDT MON OCT 17 1994

SFC LOW DEEPENING OVR SWRN KS WITH DRYLN SWD INTO EXTRM WRN OK. TRW HV
BEEN DVLPG ALG/AHD OF DRYLN VCNTY ABI WITH WEAKER SHWRS AND WDSPRD DRZL
ACRS MUCH OF CNTRL OK. EXPCT TRW TO INCRS WITH TIME AS DRYLN MOVS
EWD INTO MSTR AXIS. MSTR AHD OF DRYLN IS RICH...BUT EXTNSV LO CLDS
AND DRZL HAS KEPT BEST INSTABILITIES CONFINED TO A NARROW STRIP AHD OF
DRYLN. LAMONT AND PURCELL PROFILERS SHOW FVBL SHEAR AND WITH CAA ALF...
A FEW SVR TRW PSBL. WL GO WITH FAIRLY HI POPS AHD OF DRYLN TNGT.
DEEP MSTR AND PROJECTED CELL MOTIONS ALSO SUG HVY RAINFALL PSBL AND
WL MENTION THIS IN ZNS. PCPN SHUD BE MAINLY IN THE EVNG IN WRN COUNTIES.

SFC BNDRY WL SLOW LT TNGT AND TUE AS UPR SYS PULLS AWAY TO THE NE. 12Z
ETA IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE FNT...BUT BLV THAT IT IS A LITTLE TOO SLOW
AS UPR FLOW SHUD HAVE ENUF PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO KEEP BNDRY MOVG.
PREFER NGM IN THIS REGARD. MDLS DVLP STG UVV ACRS SCNTRL/SERN ZNS ON TUE
SO WL GO WITH FAIRLY HI POPS THERE. NWRN ZNS SHUD DRY OUT.

CDFNT HANGS UP IN TX AND AVN TRIES TO DVLP SOME ISENT LIFT AND PCPN ACRS
NWRN TX LT IN THIS FCST PD. FOR NOW WL KEEP POPS OUT WITH MST OF THE
ACTVTY STAYING TO THE S OF THE FA.    ..04..

GAG 49/75/43/72 3111    PNC 57/72/51/75 7211    HBR 54/78/51/76 4111
SPS 60/77/56/76 6211    OKC 60/74/54/74 7311    DUA 67/72/60/75 7742

.OKC...NONE.
.TX...NONE.

OKZ004-005-009-010-171900-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1225 PM CDT MON OCT 17 1994

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND A SLIGHT RISK IN THE
WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE MOIST THROUGH A DEEP LAYER THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE AREA.  A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.  SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. STRONG WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE TEXAS PANAHANDLE AND NORTHWEST PART OF
OKLAHOMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT TO
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS.  ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...THE VERTICAL WIND STRUCTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE RISK AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
EAST AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG
IT...BRINGING  REPEATED RAINS TO NEARLY THE SAME AREAS.

RUFF

OKZ004-005-009-010-171900-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1225 PM CDT MON OCT 17 1994

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND A SLIGHT RISK IN THE
WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE MOIST THROUGH A DEEP LAYER THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE AREA.  A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.  SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. STRONG WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE TEXAS PANAHANDLE AND NORTHWEST PART OF
OKLAHOMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT TO
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS.  ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...THE VERTICAL WIND STRUCTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE RISK AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
EAST AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG
IT...BRINGING REPEATED RAINS TO NEARLY THE SAME AREAS.

RUFF

OKZ018>020-024>032-037>053-TXZ083>090-051200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
100 PM CST FRI OCT 17 1994

TORNADO WATCHS NUMBER 881 AND 882 REMAIN IN EFFECT PM FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS
...GENERALLY THE AREA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM QUANAH TEXAS TO DUNCAN TO
CHECOTAH.

THERE IS ALSO AN ADJACENT AREA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... AND PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS. THIS AREA IS EAST OF A LINE FROM FOARD CITY... TO CORDELL... TO
STILLWATER.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM HOLDENVILLE TO
FREDERICK TO QUANAH TEXAS AT MIDDAY. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO BE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. MEANWHILE... A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING AND MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE  STRONG
SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THIS EVENING MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE FRONTAL
ZONE AND HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD BACK FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.

LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL  AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTERS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... AS WELL AS THE WESTERN PART
OF NORTH TEXAS... SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

DGN

OKZ004>017-020>022-250200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
440 PM CDT MON OCT 17 1994

...FROST POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLIER TODAY HAS
BROUGHT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. VERY DRY AIR AND NORTH
WINDS WILL COMBINE TO BRING LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S. THIS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF FROST TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER TO WATONGA TO CHEYENNE BUT WILL
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS FURTHER NORTH. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE STILL
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT
LATER ON TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT THIN AS MUCH AS EXPECTED...THEN
THE FROST WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.

RESIDENTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE COLDER WEATHER BY
BRINGING IN OUTDOORS PLANTS WHICH ARE VULNERABLE TO FROST.

BSC