Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA
415 PM CST SAT APR 2 1994

THE 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED QUITE WELL ON UA SYS MOVG INTO FA THIS AFTN.
DIFFS WERE IN STRENGTH OF CIRCULATION DEPICTED BY VORT FIELDS. THE NGM
WAS STRONGEST THE AVN WEAKEST. THE SHAPE OF THE SYS ON SAT IMAGERY
SUPPORTS THE NGM BUT MAYBE NOT AS STRONG A VORT MAX. THE ETA INITIALIZED
BEST ON THE SFC LOW IN THE TX PNHNDL.

THE NGM AND ETA AGREE ON PHASING NRN AND SRN STRM SYS BY 24 HRS AS THEY
EXIT FA WHILE THE AVN PHASES MUCH FASTER, LOSING THE IDENTITY OF THE S/W
CIRC TOO SOON. THE NGM IS MORE CORRECT TAKING SFC LOW ON A MORE EWD
PATH THIS AFTN AND TONITE. THE ETA IS A LTL DEEPER WITH DVLPG SYS IN WRN
U.S. BY 48 HRS. 12Z UA ANAL DID NOT HELP INDC A PREFERENCE HERE EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS A 100 KT JET MOVG EWD FM CNTRL PAC AT 25H. OTHER MODEL DIFFS
AT THAT POINT WILL NOT HAVE SIG IMPACT ON WX OVR FA.

LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDCD TRW DVLPG IN SW OK. KFDR 88D INDCD BNDRY
INTERSECTION/TRIPLE PT JUST W OF KFDR FOR FAVORABLE TRW FORMATION.
EXPECTING SVR TRW IN CNTRL OK, WRN PTNS N TX THIS EVE AND SE OK LATER
TONITE. SOME TRW PSBL BHND CDFNT UNDER 50H COLD POOL. WX WILL BE DRY ON
SUNDAY THRU MON NITE. NEXT PRECIP IN EXTENDED PD ON TUES. WL GO A LTL
BLO MOS TEMPS TIL MON WHERE WARMER FWC NMBRS LOOK BEST.

FCSTID=#22/BT

HBR   40  63  45  78 / 20  0   0   0
OKC   39  60  43  75 / 60  0   0   0
SPS   41  65  45  80 / 60  0   0   10
G.AG   32  63  43  78 / 30  0   0   0
PNC   35  59  41  75 / 60  0   0   10
DUA   41  63  41  75 / 80  0   0   10

.OKC...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TONIGHT ZNS 04>53.
.TX...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TONIGHT ZNS 83>90.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
458 PM CST SAT APR 02 1994

TIME               COUNTY               LOCATION/EVENT

449 PM             OKLAHOMA            DIME TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL
                                       REPORTED AT NICKEL HILLS FIRE
                                       DEPARTMENT.

454 PM             OKLAHOMA            11/2 INCH HAIL NE SIDE OF
                                       OKLAHOMA `CITY.

457 PM             NOBLE               QUARTER SIZE IN PERRY.

ALA

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
512 PM CST SAT APR 02 1994

TIME               COUNTY               LOCATION/EVENT

510 PM             PAYNE               QUARTER HAIL N SzIDE OF STILLWATER
                                       ALSO ESTIMATED 70 MPH WINDS.

CBW

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
530 PM CST SAT APR 02 1994

TIME               COUNTY               LOCATION/EVENT

457 PM             NOBLE                QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN PERRY.

500 PM             E. GARFIELD          60+ MPH WINDS 6 MILES SOUTH
                                        OF COVINGTON.

520 PM             LINCOLN              QUARTER SIZE HAIL 6 MILES
                                        NORTHWEST OF CANEY.

515 PM             MCCLAIN              HALF DALLOR SIZE HAIL 5 MILES
                                        SW OF PURCELL.

525 PM             S. CLEVELAND         GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN
                                        LEXINGTON.

535 PM             LINCOLN              QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN AGRA.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
615 PM CST SAT APR 02 1994

TIME               COUNTY               LOCATION/EVENT

438 PM             GRADY                QUARTER SIZE HAIL 3 MILES
                                        SOUTHEAST OF CHICKASHA.

445 PM             OKLAHOMA             GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NORTH
                                        SIDE OF EDMOND.

445 PM             LOGAN                3 MILES SSE OF MARSHALL WINDS
                                        61 MPH REPORTED BY OKLAHOMA
                                        MESONET.

454 PM             NE OKLAHOMA          11/2 INCH HAIL NE OKLAHOMA
                                        CITY.

502 PM             OKLAHOMA             GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN ARCADIA.

520 PM             GRANT                NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN CANEY.

525 PM             PAYNE                GOLFBALL HAIL 6 MILES SOUTH
                                        OF STILLWATER.

526 PM             MCCLAIN              TENNIS BALL HAIL 1 MILE EAST
                                        OF WAYNE.

530 PM             PAYNE                2 MILES WEST OF STILLWATER WINDS
                                        61 MPH REPORTED BY OKLAHOMA
                                        MESONET.

535 PM             CLEVELAND            DIME SIZE HAIL 4 MILES EAST OF
                                        LEXINGTON.

538 PM             MCCLAIN              HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL 2 MILES
                                        WEST OF BYARS.

540 PM             PAYNE                HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL IN
                                        CUSHING.

550 PM             GRANT                NICKEL SIZE HAIL 1 MILE SW
                                        OF JEFFERSON.

555 PM             POTTAWATOMIE      d   DIME SIZE HAIL 1 MILE SOUTH
                                        EASON.

ALA

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
645 PM CST SAT APR 02 1994

TIME               COUNTY               LOCATION/EVENT

555 PM             LINCOLN              DIME SIZE HAIL 5 MILES NORTH
                                        7 MILES WEST OF CARNEY ON COUNTY
                                        LINE ROAD.

606 PM             GARVIN               BASEBALL SIZE HAIL IN STRAFORD.

617 PM             CARTER               DIME SIZE HAIL 4 MILES NORTH OF
                                        LONE GROVE.

617 PM             CARTER               DIME SIZE HAIL 1 MILE NORTH OF
                                        ARDMORE.

623 PM             KAY                  QUARTER SIZE HAIL 1 MILE WEST OF
                                        I-35 ON HIGHWAY 11.

620 PM             SEMINOLE             DIME SIZE HAIL AT 4 MILES
                                        ESE OF KONAWA.

628 PM             PAYNE                DIME SIZE HAIL IN CUSHING.

ALA

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