Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA
415 PM CST SAT APR 2 1994

THE 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED QUITE WELL ON UA SYS MOVG INTO FA THIS AFTN.
DIFFS WERE IN STRENGTH OF CIRCULATION DEPICTED BY VORT FIELDS. THE NGM
WAS STRONGEST THE AVN WEAKEST. THE SHAPE OF THE SYS ON SAT IMAGERY
SUPPORTS THE NGM BUT MAYBE NOT AS STRONG A VORT MAX. THE ETA INITIALIZED
BEST ON THE SFC LOW IN THE TX PNHNDL.

THE NGM AND ETA AGREE ON PHASING NRN AND SRN STRM SYS BY 24 HRS AS THEY
EXIT FA WHILE THE AVN PHASES MUCH FASTER, LOSING THE IDENTITY OF THE S/W
CIRC TOO SOON. THE NGM IS MORE CORRECT TAKING SFC LOW ON A MORE EWD
PATH THIS AFTN AND TONITE. THE ETA IS A LTL DEEPER WITH DVLPG SYS IN WRN
U.S. BY 48 HRS. 12Z UA ANAL DID NOT HELP INDC A PREFERENCE HERE EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS A 100 KT JET MOVG EWD FM CNTRL PAC AT 25H. OTHER MODEL DIFFS
AT THAT POINT WILL NOT HAVE SIG IMPACT ON WX OVR FA.

LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDCD TRW DVLPG IN SW OK. KFDR 88D INDCD BNDRY
INTERSECTION/TRIPLE PT JUST W OF KFDR FOR FAVORABLE TRW FORMATION.
EXPECTING SVR TRW IN CNTRL OK, WRN PTNS N TX THIS EVE AND SE OK LATER
TONITE. SOME TRW PSBL BHND CDFNT UNDER 50H COLD POOL. WX WILL BE DRY ON
SUNDAY THRU MON NITE. NEXT PRECIP IN EXTENDED PD ON TUES. WL GO A LTL
BLO MOS TEMPS TIL MON WHERE WARMER FWC NMBRS LOOK BEST.

FCSTID=#22/BT

HBR   40  63  45  78 / 20  0   0   0
OKC   39  60  43  75 / 60  0   0   0
SPS   41  65  45  80 / 60  0   0   10
G.AG   32  63  43  78 / 30  0   0   0
PNC   35  59  41  75 / 60  0   0   10
DUA   41  63  41  75 / 80  0   0   10

.OKC...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TONIGHT ZNS 04>53.
.TX...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TONIGHT ZNS 83>90.

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-021400-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1240 PM CST SAT APR 2 1994

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND THE WEST PART OF NORTH TEXAS.

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM LAVERNE TO
WOODWARD TO FREDERICK TO SEYMOUR TEXAS.

SURFACE MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA.  THIS SURFACE MOISTURE
IS SHALLOW WHICH MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WAS
BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE.  AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND A COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.  A DRYLINE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH
TEXAS WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  THE
INSTABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE INDICATE THAT IF STORMS DEVELOP...SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE.  THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND
EAST OF THE DRYLINE...BUT OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AS THE UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
TONIGHT.  THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

THE WINDS PROFILE INDICATES THAT THE MAJOR THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BEb LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

SPEG/KLH

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
400 PM CST SAT APR 02 1994

TIME               COUNTY               LOCATION/EVENT

356 PM             GARFIELD            QUARTER SIZE HAIHL 3 MILES NORTH
                                       1 MILE WEST OF DRUMOND.

358 PM             GARFIELD            QUATER SIZE HAIL COVERING GROUND
                                       IN DRUMOND.
ALA

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
435 PM CST SAT APR 02 1994

TIME               COUNTY               LOCATION/EVENT

405 PM             GARFIELD            1 3/4 INCH HAIL VANCE AIR FORCE
                                       BASE WITH WIND GUST TO 51 MPH.

408 PM             GARFIELD            ONE INCH HAIL AT WAUKOMIS.

415 PM             GRADY               QUARTER SIZE HAIL 5 MILES WEST/
                                       5 MILES SOUTH OF CHICKASHA.

420 PM             GRADY               DIME SIZE HAIL SOUTH SIDE OF
                                       CHICKASHA.

425 PM             GRADY               NICKEL SIZE HAIL WEST SIDE OF
                                       NINNEKAH.

430 PM             GARFIELD            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WITH
                                       65-70 MPH WINDS IN COVINGTON.

ALA

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
448 PM CST SAT APR 02 1994

TIME               COUNTY               LOCATION/EVENT

434 PM             GRADY               DINE TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN
                                       NINNEKAH.

437 PM             GRADY               QUARTER SIZE HAIL 8 MILES SE OF
                                       CHICKASHA.

445 PM             GRADY               GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL 3 M,ILES SE OF
                                       ALEX.
ALA

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
458 PM CST SAT APR 02 1994

TIME               COUNTY               LOCATION/EVENT

449 PM             OKLAHOMA            DIME TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL
                                       REPORTED AT NICKEL HILLS FIRE
                                       DEPARTMENT.

454 PM             OKLAHOMA            11/2 INCH HAIL NE SIDE OF
                                       OKLAHOMA `CITY.

457 PM             NOBLE               QUARTER SIZE IN PERRY.

ALA

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
512 PM CST SAT APR 02 1994

TIME               COUNTY               LOCATION/EVENT

510 PM             PAYNE               QUARTER HAIL N SzIDE OF STILLWATER
                                       ALSO ESTIMATED 70 MPH WINDS.

CBW