Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS New York, NY

NYZ067>081-NJZ001>014-271500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - HEAVY DOWNPOURS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND WEATHER MAP DISCUSSION FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 1994

A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY WILL GIVE US CLOUDS AND A LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH HIGH MOISTURE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED ROAD AND HIGHWAY FLOODING.
ALSO...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG.

THE CULPRIT IS A PAIR OF FRONTS. THE FIRST ONE EXTENDS FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN MICHIGAN AND CURVES THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
DOWN ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE TROUBLE MOVING
EASTWARD TO THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO THE
FIRST FRONT WILL SWING NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

AROUND SUNRISE THIS TUESDAY MORNING MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE FROM NEW YORK CITY WESTWARD. FOR THIS MORNING AT LEAST...IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER FROM THE CITY
WEST...WITH SMALLER CHANCES OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND. AND...SOME OF
THESE STORMS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DELAWARE VALLEY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO DROP A LOT OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME AND PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS WELL. MOTORISTS WILL NEED TO USE EXTRA CARE DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY OVER NEW JERSEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.

SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE FOR ALL SECTIONS. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN LATER TODAY
AFTER THE WARM FRONT SWINGS BY.

FOR NOW WE WILL JUST MENTION VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY UNTIL LATER GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NEED TO RETURN RAIN
CHANCES TO THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT THE MAIN FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST
IN THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY IS NOT SLATED TO MOVE PAST THE COAST TIL
LATE THIS WEEK.

NYZ067>081-NJZ001>014-271500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - HEAVY DOWNPOURS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND WEATHER MAP DISCUSSION FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 1994

A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY WILL GIVE US CLOUDS AND A LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH HIGH MOISTURE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED ROAD AND HIGHWAY FLOODING.
ALSO...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG.

THE CULPRIT IS A PAIR OF FRONTS. THE FIRST ONE EXTENDS FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN MICHIGAN AND CURVES THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
DOWN ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE TROUBLE MOVING
EASTWARD TO THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO THE
FIRST FRONT WILL SWING NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

AROUND SUNRISE THIS TUESDAY MORNING MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE FROM NEW YORK CITY WESTWARD. FOR THIS MORNING AT LEAST...IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER FROM THE CITY
WEST...WITH SMALLER CHANCES OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND. AND...SOME OF
THESE STORMS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DELAWARE VALLEY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO DROP A LOT OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME AND PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS WELL. MOTORISTS WILL NEED TO USE EXTRA CARE DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY OVER NEW JERSEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.

SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE FOR ALL SECTIONS. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN LATER TODAY
AFTER THE WARM FRONT SWINGS BY.

FOR NOW WE WILL JUST MENTION VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY UNTIL LATER GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NEED TO RETURN RAIN
CHANCES TO THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT THE MAIN FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST
IN THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY IS NOT SLATED TO MOVE PAST THE COAST TIL
LATE THIS WEEK.

NYZ067>081-NJZ002>006-011-CTZ005>012-271400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
540 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 1994

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ROLLING NORTHWARD OVER NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST
STORMS BEFORE SUNRISE MOVED THROUGH THE DELAWARE VALLEY...BUT MORE
STORMS WERE FORMING OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND WERE HEADING FOR THE
NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AT 520 AM. LESS SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 530 AND 8 AM OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT.

SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DUMP HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT TIME
AND IN LOCALIZED AREAS...AND MAY REPEAT OVER SOME AREAS IN A TRAIN
EFFECT. THIS WILL CAUSE SPOTTY ROAD HIGHWAY AND URBAN FLOODING THIS
MORNING MAINLY FROM EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND THE NEW YORK
METRO AREA AND POINTS WESTWARD...AT LEAST THROUGH 9 OR 10 AM.

ALSO...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE STRONG AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS WELL AS DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND SOME HAIL.

FOR SAFETY/S SAKE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHICH ARE FLOODED. AT BEST
YOU COULD STALL OUT...AND AT WORST YOU COULD SUSTAIN INJURY OR WORSE.
AND GET INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING WHEN THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR
LOCATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S THIS MORNING...AND WINDS WILL BLOW
FROM THE EASTSOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR...EXCEPT VARIABLE
WITH POSSIBLY STRONG GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

NYZ067>081-NJZ002>006-011-CTZ005>012-271500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 1994

AT 715 AM NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ROLLING NORTHWARD
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST STORMS AT 7 AM WERE
MOVING THROUGH ORANGE COUNTY NEW YORK AND OVER EASTERN QUEENS IN NEW
YORK CITY AS WELL AS NASSAU COUNTY ON WESTERN LONG ISLAND. MARINERS
SHOULD WATCH FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS HIGHER SEAS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND OVER LOWER NEW YORK
HARBOR AND EASTERN RARITAN BAY UNTIL THESE STORMS PASS THROUGH BY 745
OR 8 AM.

SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DUMP HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT TIME
...AND MAY REPEAT OVER SOME AREAS IN A TRAIN EFFECT. THIS WILL CAUSE
SPOTTY ROAD HIGHWAY AND URBAN FLOODING THIS MORNING. SO FAR WITH THESE
STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING...RADAR ESTIMATED A LITTLE OVER 3 INCHES
NEAR RED BANK IN MONMOUTH COUNTY NEW JERSEY... WITH 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ESTIMATED OVER PARTS OF ORANGE COUNTY NEW YORK. THESE ESTIMATES MAY OR
MAY NOT BE RELIABLE HOWEVER...BUT THEY DO SHOW WHERE THE HEAVIEST
STORMS HAVE TRACKED.

FOR SAFETY/S SAKE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHICH ARE FLOODED. AT BEST
YOU COULD STALL OUT...AND AT WORST YOU COULD SUSTAIN INJURY OR WORSE.
AND GET INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING WHEN THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR
LOCATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S THIS MORNING...AND WINDS WILL BLOW
FROM THE EASTSOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR...EXCEPT VARIABLE
WITH POSSIBLY STRONG GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.