Severe Thunderstorm Warning 282, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 PM MDT (329 PM CDT) SAT OCT 1 1994

RECOMMENDATIONS:

FOR NW KS...WOULD GO WITH SMLR GROUPINGS THAT HAVE CURRENTLY.
            MINS ARND 50 NW CORNER TO 50-55 RMNDR OF AREA...50-70%
            CHC TON NE WINDS 10-15 MPH.  MAXES MID 60S NW CORNER TO
            ARND 70 RMNDR...20% WRN PTN(WRN 8 CNTYS) AND 50% RMNDR
            ...MOSTLY CLOUDY...N-NE WND 10-15 MPH.

FOR EXTRM SW NE...ONLY RCMD IS HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS THRU TOMR.
FOR ECTNRL CO...CURRENT FCST ON TRACK NO MAJOR RCMDS.

DISCUSSION:

FCST PROBLEM THROUGH TOMORROW IS CHC OF PCPN.  COLLECTIVELY...ALL
THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITN.  HWVR...THERE ARE SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES BTWN THEM.  BASED ON CURRENT SFC AND SATL ANAL...WOULD
HAVE TO FAVOR THE ETA/AVN SOLN OVR NGM.  BASED ON THE ABV...SFC WNDS
AND LOW LVL MSTR ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ETA/AVN.  NGM APPEARS TO HAVE
OVERDONE THOSE TWO ELEMENTS INTO A BETTER UPSLOPE SITN THAN OTHER TWO
MODELS.

AS FAR AS INCMG UPR LOW AND VORT PATTERN...MDLS NOT TOO FAR OFF IN SOLN
THROUGH TOMORROW.  HWVR...NGM THRU THIS AFTN APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH VORT
MAX AND S/W NOW OVR WRN CO AND TOO FAR NORTH WITH LOW POSN NOW OVR
CNTRL WY.  BEYOND THIS AFTN...ALL MODELS VERY SMLR IN UPR AIR PATTERN.

EVEN THOUGH ENTIRE CWA SHOULD HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT PCPN...BASED ON SATL
AND SFC ANAL NE CO AND WRN NE WILL HAVE THE BEST UPSLOPE AND MORE
DIFLUENCE ALOFT.  MOS POPS FOR ENTIRE AREA ARE IN THE BALLPARK.
BOTH ETA/NGM TIME SCTNS START DRYING OUT AREA ARND MIDDAY...AND BASED
ON SFC ANAL AM LEANING TWRD THE FASTER DRYING TREND OF THE ETA.

BASED ON REPORTED MINS THIS MRNG...2-3C DROPS IN 850 TEMPS...AND DROPS
IN 850-700 MB THICKNESS...CURRENT MIN FCST LOOKS GOOD.  MAXES TOMORROW
WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPEND WHEN/IF THE CLDS BREAK.  ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED ATTM...WOULD STAY AT OR BELOW MOS.

GLD 48/65 52  HLC 54/69 65
CBK 49/66 52  MCK 50/64 55
TRB 52/72 52  5C0 48/63 66

BULLER