Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
215 PM MDT (315 PM CDT) SUN AUG 7 1994

RECOMMENDATIONS: RECOMMEND 20 PERCENT CHC TSTMS ALL COUNTIES OF
CWA.  REST OF FCST ELEMENTS LOOK GOOD.

DISCUSSION:

LOOKS LIKE A BLEND OF THE ETA/NGM IS BEST CHOICE FOR PD 1.  THIS IS
BECAUSE ADAP DATA IS SHOWING GD LOW LVL MOISTURE CNVGNCE IAW WITH ETA
NR THE FNT WHICH IS CURRENTLY INDCD TO BE S OF LBF AND BTN IDALIA AND
HOLYOKE BY SFC AND SUPPLEMNTAL SFC OBS.  THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH THE ETA
IS THAT THE PROGD BNDRY LAYER MIXING RATIOS SEEM TO HI WITH CRNT OBS
WITH VALUES MORE SIMILAR TO THE NGM.

GVN THE MOVEMENT OF THE DRY LN...WHICH SFC DATA INDCS TO BE JUST W OF
BURLINGTON CO...IN CONCERT WITH THE FNT TO THE N... NOW BELIEVE THE
BEST CHC OF CNVTN IS IN THE NW HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVE.

THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR IS A STG CAP OVR THIS PTN OF THE AREA. HWVR IF
THIS CAP IS WEAKENED AND TSTMS START TO DVLP...SOME MAY BECOME SVR GVN
CAPES OF 2500-3000 OVR AREA.

ONLY OTR COMMENT IS THAT FWC GUIDANCE SEEMS TO LOW FOR MONDAYS HIGHS
GVN THAT ANY COOL AIR THAT ARRIVES OVR NRN PTS OF THE CWA TNGT WL LKLY
BE REPLACED BY WRM AIR ON S WNDS BY AFTN.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A
BUILDING 500 HH RDG DURG THIS PD.  BELIEVE THE CAUSE FOR THE LWR
GUIDANCE TEMPS MAY BE RELATED TO AN INCR OF PROGD SFC PRES BY THE NGM
WHICH DOES NOT SEEM LKLY OVR THE ENTIRE CWA.

GLD   61/95 2-   HLC  65/94 2-
CBK   63/94 2-   MCK  63/92 2-
TRB   62/96 2-   5C0  60/95 2-

VJN

KSZ027-041-072325-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
420 PM MDT SUN AUG 7 1994

AT 416 PM MDT (516 PM CDT) DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OVER WALLACE COUNTY KANSAS SOUTHWEST OF SHARON
SPRINGS OR NEAR WESKAN. THIS STORM LIKELY CONTAINS SMALL HAIL...VERY
HEAVY RAIN...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 15 MILES AN HOUR.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND STAY ALERT FOR
ANY POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LUCAS

COZ090-092-KSZ001-027-041-072330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED...ADD YUMA CO AND CHEYENNE KS...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
431 PM MDT (531 PM CDT) SUN AUG 7 1994

AT 416 PM MDT (516 PM CDT) DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OVER WALLACE COUNTY KANSAS SOUTHWEST OF SHARON
SPRINGS OR NEAR WESKAN. THIS STORM LIKELY CONTAINS SMALL HAIL...VERY
HEAVY RAIN...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 15 MILES AN HOUR.

ANOTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH  VERY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
SMALL HAIL WAS ALSO NOTED OVER EXTREME WESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY OF
KANSAS NORTHWEST OF STAINT FRANCIS.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND STAY ALERT FOR
ANY POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LUCAS