Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
151 PM MDT (251 PM CDT) SUN JUL 24 1994

RECOMMENDATIONS:

FOR TOP...RCMD KEEP CURRENT ZONE GROUPS.
          ZONE GROUP 1...MINS 60 TO 65...40% CHC SOME PSBLY SVR...
          MCLDY SKIES...SLY WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.  MAXES MID 80S 20% OR
          LESS CHC...PSUNNY SKIES...S TO SE WND 5 TO 15 MPH.

          ZONE GROUP 2...MINS MID 60S...20% CHC WITH MCLDY SKIES...E-SE
          WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.  MAXES MID 80S...20%(ELY MRNG) AND LESS
          THAN 20% FOR AFTN..PSUNNY SKIES...SE WND <10 MPH.

FOR OMA...MINS LWR 60S...30% FOR DUNDY AND HITCHCOCK(SOME SVR AND 20%
          RED WILLOW WITH MCLDY SKIES ALL AREAS...EAST WIND <10 MPH.
          MAXES LWR TO MID 80S...20% OR LESS CHC...PSUNNY SKIES...E
          WNDS ARND 10 MPH.

FOR DEN...MINS 60 TO 65...40% CHC SOME PSBLY SVR...MCLDY SKIES...SLY
          WNDS 5 TO 15 MPH.  MAXES LWR TO MID 80S...30% CHC
          AFTN...PSUNNY SKIES...S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION:

GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT CHANGING SO NEXT TWO PERIODS TO CONT TO
SEE MORE OF THE SAME.  THAT SCENARIO IS FRONT/LEE TROF IN AREA...MOIST
AMS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...AND S/WS MOVING ACROSS AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT.
NGM CONTS TO HANDLE UPR FEATURES THE BEST.  SFC ANAL SHOWS FRONT STILL
TO NORTH OF CWA WITH A DRY/LESS MOIST LINE FRMG OVR CNTRL PTN OF CO
COUNTIES.  WK S/W MOVG ACROSS CO AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE.

THAT S/W ALONG WITH HEATING HAS ALREADY DESTABILIZED AMS OVR CO WITH CU
FRMG OVR RMNG AREA.  AREA PROFILERS SHOW GOOD DIR SHEAR BUT SPEED SHR
NOT THAT GREAT IN LOW AND MID LVLS.  HWVR SATL AND 3MA SHOWING RIGHT
REAR OF QUAD OF JET OVR SW WY/WRN NE.  ALL IN ALL...SHOULD SEE A SMLR
SCENARIO AS YDA/LAST NGTS.  WITH MOST AMS...PLENTY OF CLD COVER...AND
850 MB TEMPS SMLR TO LAST NGTS...SHOULD SEE MINS IN SAME RANGE.

TMRW LOOK TO HAVE SAME PLAYERS IN STARTING UP CONVECTION AGAIN IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTN OVR WRN PTN OF CWA.  TEMPS STRUGGLING TDY TO REACH
THE LWR AND MID 80S DUE TO THE CLD COVER.  WITH TIME SCTNS SHOWG A SMLR
AMS ARND TMRW AND ALSO CLD COVER COMBINED WITH SMLR 850 TEMPS...MAXES
SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO TDAYS.

GLD   64/85 42   HLC  66/85 22
CBK   64/85 42   MCK  63/84 22
TRB   65/86 41   5C0  64/84 43

BULLER

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KSZ001-002-013-014-242310-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
408 PM MDT (508 PM CDT) SUN JUL 24 1994

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 405 PM MDT (505 PM CDT)...GOODLAND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF GOODLAND.  MOVEMENT OF THIS STORM
WAS SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL...BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE WINDS GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.  RESIDENTS OF RURAL
NORTHEAST THOMAS COUNTY SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THIS STORM THROUGH 6 PM CDT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTDOORS THIS EVENING...CHECK THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION AND KEEP A WEATHER EYE ON THE SKY.

BARKER