Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
945 AM CDT MON AUG 29 1994

GOOD MOISTURE FETCH FROM SW ACROSS REGION SHOULD KEEP QUITE A BIT
OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY MAIKING TEMP FCST TRICKY.
HAVE HAD A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TOP MORNING
SOUNDING SHOWING 50 KTS AT H8 LEVEL...BUT WITH IT FROM SW...IT HAS
FOCUSED ACTIVITY INTO NE MO THIS MORNING.  STRONG H8 JET FCST TO
HEAD INTO GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.  FLOW NEAR THE SFC WILL REMAIN
MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS THROUGH THE AREA.  IF WE DO GET SOME DECENT HEATING...ATMOSPHERE
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SCTD STORMS POPPING.  THEN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...LOOKING FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AREA.

WILL KEEP POPS IN FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL PCPN BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED.
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH SEEMS BEST WITH TEMPS FOR NOW SO WILL LE8AVE
ZFP AS IS.

PC

MOZ001>007-011>016-020>023-028>031-037-038-043-044-053-054-067-
KSZ057-060-102>105-311200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO
1255 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 1994

THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE EASTERN KANSAS COUNTIES OF

DONIPHAN     JOHNSON     LEAVENWORTH     LINN     MIAMI     WYANDOTTE

AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSOURI COUNTIES OF

ANDREW       CASS        GRUNDY       LAFAYETTE      RAY
ATCHISON     CLAY        HARRISON     LIVINGSTON     ST. CLAIR
BATES        CLINTON     HENRY        MERCER         SULLIVAN
BUCHANAN     DAVIESS     HOLT         NODAWAY        WORTH
CALDWELL     DEKALB      JACKSON      PLATTE
CARROLL      GENTRY      JOHNSON      PUTNAM

...THE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI BY
2 PM...AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  THE AIR OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS VERY WARM
...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND HAS ALREADY BEEN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
DURING THE MORNING.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BOOST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.  THE NORTHWEST CORNER MAY NOT SEE ANY STRONG STORMS
AS THE FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH EARLY ENOUGH BEFORE MUCH DEVELOPMENT CAN
OCCUR.  HOWEVER...ONCE THE FRONT ENTERS THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
STRETCHING OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...THROUGH WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI...STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

PC