Severe Thunderstorm Warning 360, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
340 PM CST SAT NOV 13 1993

CDFNT KEPT SLIDING S TDY WHICH KEPT THINGS BUSY ARND HERE TRYING TO
MAKE SURE THE FCST WAS UPDATED. SO RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND AND WL
TRY TO KEEP DISC SHORT.

LAST TIME I TOOK A LOOK AT THE MESODATA THE FNT WAS FROM ABT A FSM
TO DUA LINE. SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE LAST
SVRL HOURS IN THAT AREA. BEHIND FNT ITS QUITE COOL WITH NLY WIND
AND TO THE S ITS WARM AND JUICY (BROKEN BOW WAS 81/73 AT 2015Z).
ANYWAY LOTS OF MOISTURE RIDING UP OVER BNDRY WITH PROFILERS
INDICATING WNDS S 30-35 KT. THIS HAS LED TO A LARGE AREA OF
OVERRUNNING RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TRW OVER FA. RADAR SUMMARY SHOWING
A LITTLE BREAK IN W TX BEFORE NEXT AREA OF PRECIP ASSOC WITH STNG
S/W COMING OUT OF THE SW. S/W LOOKS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ON WV IMAGERY
WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BEHIND THE TROF AXIS.

FEEL THAT HVY RAIN STILL A THREAT TO FA TNGT. NOT SURE WHICH AREAS
ARE LIKELY TO SEE MOST PRECIP SO INCLUDED IN ALL ZNS. ALTHO SELS
HAS KEPT MDT RISK UP FOR ALL OF ERN OK FEEL THAT PRIMARY THREAT WL
BE IN THE SERN 1/3 OF FA INVOF FNT. ALTHO...AN ISO SVR CELL IS NOT
OUT OF THE ? TO THE N OF THE FNT...LIKELY WHERE COLD AIR IS STILL
SHALLOW. NOT SURE IF BNDRY WL TRY TO LIFT N TNGT AS UPPER SYSTEM
COMES OUT. DECIDED TO JUST KEEP IT STNRY AND LET LATER SHIFT TAKE
A LOOK AT THIS IF TRW DON'T GET TOO BAD.

AFT S/W MOVES TO THE NE LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE WET
WX THRU MON XCPT FOR THE XTRM SE WHERE SFC BNDRY WL STILL BE
NEARBY. FOR TEMPS WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LATEST READING FOR
MINS TNGT AND THEN JUST STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR REMAINING PDS.

PRELIM NMBRS
TUL  46/61 39/51 +511     MLC 52/68 37/56 +512
BVO 44/60 34/49 +511     IDB 62/71 45/62 9623

07

.TUL...NONE.