Severe Thunderstorm Warning 352, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 1993

1945Z OK MESONET DATA INDICATED SFC LOW TO BE NORTH OF HOMINY WITH A
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH TO WEST OF BRISTOW TO NEAR HOLDENVILLE AND A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW TO NEAR OKC. AIRMASS IN THE
WARM SECTOR REMAINS UNSTABLE BUT CAPPED BUT TSTMS ARE NOW FORMING TO
THE WEST OF CNU AND ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BUILDING SOUTH INTO OK. THE
NGM AND ETA BOTH SHOW SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL COOLING INTO ERN OK DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO RAPID SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS
LIKELY SOMETIME BETWEEN NOW AND 02Z AS 100 KNOT H3 AND 60 KNOT H5 WIND
MAXES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE
NOW ALONG AND EAST OF U.S HIGHWAY 75 SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUPERCELL
AND TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE ERN HALF OF OUR FCST AREA THIS
EVENING. WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT IN SE OK AND LOWER POPS TO THE
NORTHWEST WHERE SFC BOUNDARIES MAY PASS BEFORE STORM INITIATION. AS
VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS SRN OK LATER TONIGHT AND SFC COLD FRONT SLOWS
...SOME TRAINING OF ECHOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR IN
EXTREME SE OK.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. NGM GRIDDED DATA SHOWS VERY HIGH RH BELOW 850 MB ACROSS MOST OF
ERN OK SO THE CHANCES OF SEEING MUCH SUN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS APPEAR
SLIM EXCEPT MAYBE IN FAR SE OK. WITH SFC BOUNDARY STALLING JUST SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE ON THE INCREASE.

EXPECT LITTLE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO WENT WELL
BELOW THE NGM MOS MAXES SUNDAY AND ABOVE THE NGM MOS MINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
NGM TEMPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK REASONABLE ATTM. POPS ARE TOO LOW
TONIGHT BUT ARE CLOSE OR A LITTLE TOO HIGH SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUL 54/63/55/68 3123    MLC 57/67/58/75 5123
BVO 52/61/53/66 2123    IDB 62/73/59/75 6323

.TUL...NONE.

PLATE

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA, OK
558 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 1993

TIME (CDT)      COUNTY          EVENT

441 PM          OSAGE        HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS FELL 3 MI SOUTH
                             EAST OF NEW PRUE.
520 PM          TULSA        HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS FELL AT EASTLAND
                             MALL IN EAST TULSA.
530 PM          WAGONER      DIME SIZE HAIL 3 MI SE OF ONETA.
538 PM          TULSA        DIME SIZE HAIL 81ST AND HARVARD IN SOUTH
                             TULSA.
542 PM          TULSA        NICKLE SIZE HAIL AT 91ST AND HWAY 169 SOUTH
                             EAST TULSA.
602 PM          TULSA        NICKLE SIZE HAIL FELL IN SOUTHEAST TULSA.
602 PM          WAGONER      NICKLE SIZE HAIL 4 MILES WEST OF COWETA.

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA, OK
558 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 1993

TIME (CDT)      COUNTY          EVENT

441 PM          OSAGE        HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS FELL 3 MI SOUTH
                             EAST OF NEW PRUE.
520 PM          TULSA        HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS FELL AT EASTLAND
                             MALL IN EAST TULSA.
530 PM          WAGONER      DIME SIZE HAIL 3 MI SE OF ONETA.
538 PM          TULSA        DIME SIZE HAIL 81ST AND HARVARD IN SOUTH
                             TULSA.
542 PM          TULSA        NICKLE SIZE HAIL AT 91ST AND HWAY 169 SOUTH
                             EAST TULSA.
602 PM          TULSA        NICKLE SIZE HAIL FELL IN SOUTHEAST TULSA.
602 PM          WAGONER      NICKLE SIZE HAIL 4 MILES WEST OF COWETA.

OKZ054>056-059-060-064-170030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
645 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 1993

...TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 906 WHICH WAS ISSUED FOR A LARGE PART OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

TORNADO WATCH 906 IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

...OSAGE...NOWATA...PAWNEE...WASHINGTON...CREEK...AND TULSA.

THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE REST OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA UNTIL 1100 PM TONIGHT.

OKZ054>056-059-060-064-170030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
645 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 1993

...TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 906 WHICH WAS ISSUED FOR A LARGE PART OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

TORNADO WATCH 906 IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

...OSAGE...NOWATA...PAWNEE...W:ASHINGTON...CREEK...AND TULSA.

THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE REST OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA UNTIL 1100 PM TONIGHT.

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