Severe Thunderstorm Warning 305, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 PM CDT FRI OCT 8 1993

SATL SHOWS VORT MAX HAS BEEN MOVG GENRLLY ENE ACRS NRN KS/SRN NEB
THIS AFTN.  SFC LO WAS LCTD OVR NE KS WITH TROF/DRYLN XTNDG
SOUTHWEST FRM THE LO APPRCHNG AREA.  WNDS VEERING OVR WRN PART OF
FA LAST FEW HRS SO POTNTL FOR SVR CONTS TO SHFT EWRD.  COLDER AIR
STILL LAGGING WELL BACK TO THE NW OF AREA...BUT FNT SHLD PUSH ON
ACRS AREA OVRNGT WITH COLDER AIR EVENTUALLY FILTERING IN BY MRNG.
WL CONFINE POPS IN THE NE TO THIS EVNG ONLY...WITH A MENTION OF
PSBL SVR GENRLLY OVR ERN PART.  COOLER AIR BHND FNT WL PROVIDE
BELOW NORM TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND.

PRELIM NUMBERS:  TUL 50/59/40/62 3-00  BNVO 48/57/37/61 3-00
                 MLC 54/64/42/65 5100  IDB 60/69/43/64 4100
...04...
.OK...NONE.

OKZ054>077-091200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
145 PM CDT FRI OCT 8 1993

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE MODERATE RISK
AREA IS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF AN ARC EXTENDING FROM STILWELL TO OKEMAH
TO PAWHUSKA. THE COMMUNITIES OF TULSA...BARTLESVILLE...MIAMI AND
TAHLEQUAH ARE INCLUDED IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF CONCORDIA KANSAS AT 1 PM WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO
NEAR ENID AND HOBART OKLAHOMA. THE AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS
BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
JUST EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND
THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LARGE AND DAMAGING
TORNADOES WILL BE FROM TULSA NORTH AND EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL END IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A STRONGER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS...PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY AND STAY
ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

OKZ054>077-091200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
145 PM CDT FRI OCT 8 1993

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE MODERATE RISK
AREA IS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF AN ARC EXTENDING FROM STILWELL TO OKEMAH
TO PAWHUSKA. THE COMMUNITIES OF TULSA...BARTLESVILLE...MIAMI AND
TAHLEQUAH ARE INCLUDED IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF CONCORDIA KANSAS AT 1 PM WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO
NEAR ENID AND HOBART OKLAHOMA. THE AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS
BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
JUST EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND
THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LARGE AND DAMAGING
TORNADOES WILL BE FROM TULSA NORTH AND EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL END IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A STRONGER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS...PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SHOULD MVONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY AND STAY
ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.