Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
340 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 1993

TSTMS HV PERSISTED IN KS TODAY IN THE AXIS OF MAX UPR DFLNC.  FIRST
OTFLW BNDRY IN SE KS MIXED AWAY...BUT SAT PICS SHOW A SCND BNDRY
ENTERNG NE OK ON A LN FM NR JLN INTO NRN OSAGE CO.  TEMPS IN THE
AREA ARE APCHNG THE CONVTV TEMP AND CU OUTSIDE OFFICE SHOWNG
INCRSNG VERT DVLPMNT.  THIS BNDRY SHUD ALSO MIX AWAY SOON AND MSTR
CONVGNC IS NOT STG...BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A STORM ON IN
THE NEXT CPL OF HRS.  CDFNT FM XTRM NW MO INTO THE SFC LOW OVR THE
ERN OK PNHDL.  A SFC TROF/OLD TSTM BNDRY XTNDS FM THE LOW INTO XTRM
NCNTRL OK.  MSTR CONVGNC IS MAXIMIZED ALG THE TROF IN NW OK WITH AN
AXIS INTO THE TUL AREA.  TSTMS ARE XPCTD TO DVLP NEXT FEW HRS IN NW
OK OR SCNTRL/SW KS AS THE UPR DIFLNC AXIS SHIFTS SWD FM KS.  WITH
WK WNWRLY MID FLOW AND A WK CAP THE CONVCTN SHUD DVLP/MOV ESEWD
TOWARD NE OK.  THE AMNT OF AVAILABLE MSTR AND WK STEERNG FLOW SUGS
A POTNL FOR LCLY HVY RNFL...HWEVR WK LLVL FLOW AND LACK OF A SIG
SHRTWV MAY TEND TO INHIBIT THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE HVY RN IN NE OK
AS WELL AS LIMIT THE LONGEVITY OF THE HVIER RN.  WITH CAPES PROGD
TO ARND 2000 J/KG (USNG MEAN LLVL CONDITNS) A PULSE SVR STORM IS
PSBL TIL ARND SUNSET.  WITH THE WNWRLY H5 FLOW THERE IS A SLGT CHC
THAT A STORM CUD DRIFT AS FAR S AS ZONES 33 AND 34 LT TNGT...BUT WL
HOLD POPS SHORT OF ZONE 40.

THE CDFNT CUD JUST ENTER THE XTRM NRN PART OF THE FA LTR TNGT BFR
LIFTNG NWD ON MON.  IF CONVCTN DVLPS AS XPCD OUTFLOW BNDRIES WL
PENETRATE DEEPER INTO THE FA.  WL CONT A LOW POP FOR MON IN NE OK
DUE TO THE PROXMITY OF THE BNDRIES...A FCST WK CAP AND A WEAKNESS
IN THE H5 FIELD OVR OK.  LLVL WIND PROGS INDCT DIFLNT FLOW IN SE OK
MON SO WL KP POPS OUT OF THERE ON MON.

WL NOT CONT POPS MON NITE AND TUES AS SFC FEATURES PULL N OF THE
AREA...ALTHO THE WKNS IN THE H5 FIELD MAY PERSIST AND CUD RESULT IN
ISLD CONVCTN IN THE AFTN AND EVES.

TUL 072/091 074/094 075 4211
MLC 074/094 075/095 075 11--
BVO 068/091 071/094 XXX 4311
IDB 071/094 072/094 XXX 0---

/8

.OK...NONE.

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