Tornado Warning 12, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
355 PM CDT THU JUL 30 1992

TSTMS HV DVLPD RPDLY ALNG THE TSTM BNDRY AND ALG THE PREFRONTAL WSHFT LN
IN NE OK.  A WK MESO LOW HAS DVLPD NR THE BNDRY INTRSCTN AND STORM
CHASERS RPT SFC WINDS OF 150 AT 20-30 KTS...SUGG INCRSD S-R HELICITY
VALUES IN ECNTRL OK.  OTHR STORMS CONT IN SE OK NR MID LVL SHEAR AXIS
AND IN POOLED MSTR.  TSTMS WERE BEING AIDED BY THE APCH OF A VORT
LOBE/SHRTWV MOVNG INTO NW OK.

XPCT STORMS IN NE AND ECNTRL OK TO WKN A LTL AFTR SS...BUT CONVCTN MAY
PERSIST IN XTRM SE OK WHERE THE BTR LLVL FLOW IS PROGD AND THICKNESS PAT
FAVORS HVYRNFL.  TSTMS HV PERSISTED IN ZONE 40 FOR MUCH OF THE THE DAY
AND WITH THE PSBLTY OF CONTD CONVCTN WL ISSUE A FFA FOR ZONE FOR TNGT.

SFC CDFNT IS VRY SHALLOW AND SHUD WASHOUT INTO A TROF TNGT OR EARLY
FRI...WITH THE WSHIFT WRKNG INTO SE OK BY MORNING.  AFTR A LTL COOLER
TNGT IN THE N...ONLY MINOR COOLNG IS XPCD.   SCT TSTMS MAY REDVLP WITH
THE WSHIFT IN SE OK ON FRI.

STHRLY FLOW SHUD RETURN ACRS THE AREA AND FRI DAY NGT AND THE APCH OF
THE NEXT VORT IN THE NW FLOW WARRANTS MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE AREA ON
SAT.

SVR WX IN CWA NOW SO ONLY A QUICK LOHOK AT TEMP GUIDANCE...BUT THEY A
FAIRLY CLOSE.

FCSTS WL BE 5 TO 10 MIN DELAYED.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

TUL 70/89/71/90/71  2--2  BVO 63/87/68/89  1--2
MLC 69/91/71/91/70  6323  IDB 69/89/70/91  8423

/8

.OK...FFA TNGT OKZ040.

OKZ026>034-040-311200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
225 PM CDT THU JUL 30 1992

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MIAMI IN OTTAWA COUNTY TO
OILTON IN CREEK COUNTY.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG A THUNDERSTORM
BOUNDARY THAT AT MID AFTERNOON EXTENDED FROM NEAR TULSA TO NEAR STILWELL
IN ADAIR COUNTY.  ONCE DEVELOPED THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AT 15
MPH.  WHILE WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR
A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND IN A POCKET OF VERY MOIST AIR.  OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  ANY OF THE STORMS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.

THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH SUNSET AND THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA SHOULD BE READY FOR ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
342 PM CDT THU JUL 30 1992

TIME (CDT)        COUNTY         REPORT

315 PM            OKMULGEE       DIME SIZE HAIL IN MORRIS