Severe Thunderstorm Warning 347, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 PM CST SAT OCT 31 1992

SFC LO LCTD NR PNHNDL LATE THIS AFTN WITH WRM FNT ACRS CNTL OK
TO N OF MLC AND DRYLN ACRS XTRM WRN OK.  UPR SYSTM MOVG ACRS
NM ATTM...AND MDLS FAIRLY CONSISTENT MOVG THIS FTR ACRS OK TNGT
AND EARLY SUN.  LOOK FOR SFC LO TO CONT TO SLIDE EWRD AND SHLD
BE MOVG INTO NE OK ARND 12Z WITH CDFNT INTO WRN FRINGES OF THE
AREA.  FNT WL THEN MOV ON ACRS REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUN AS SFC LO BGNS TO LIFT NE.  SVR TSTMS HAV ALREADY FIRED
THIS AFTN NR MLC AND WL INCLD POTNTL FOR SVR ACTVTY ACRS ERN OK
THRU TNGT.  WL ALSO INCLD MENTION OF PSBL HVY RAIN.  HIGH POPS
WL REMAIN IN ORDER SUN AS FNT AND UPR SUPPORT MOVS ACRS.  WL
CONT POPS INTO 3RD PD AS MOISTR WRAPING ARND SYSTM RMNS OVR
THE AREA...THEN LV 4TH PD DRY FOR NOW.  WL LEAN SLGTLY TWRD
HIGHER FWC GUID TEMPS.

PRELIM NUMBERS:  TUL 60/66/45/60 8621  BVO 57/60/41/56 8421
                 MLC 60/68/44/60 7621  IDB 61/71/48/62 7621
...04...

.OK...NONE.

OKZ026>034-040-011200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
200 PM CST SAT OCT 31 1992

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE MODERATE RISK AREA
IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PAWNEE TO BARTLESVILLE TO
MIAMI. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  WARM...MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE AREA.  SEVERAL OTHER CONDITIONS...NAMELY...A WELL DEVELOPED DRY
LINE TO OUR WEST AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...ARE POISED TO
INTERACT WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE
WHICH WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADIC
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO TONIGHT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTI,VATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

NOTE...THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUANCE OF THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED ROUTINELY FROM MID MARCH TO MID
JUNE AND AS NEEDED DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE YEAR.