Severe Thunderstorm Warning 303, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 1992

LN CU/TCU IN VISB SAT PICS MARK STALLED FNT IN NE OK.  AT 1931Z FNT
XTNDD FM XTRM SRN ZONE 28 INTO ZONE 30.  A TSTM BNDRY INTRSCTS THE FNT
IN THE VCNTY OF MKO.  AIRMASS IS VRY UNSTBL ALNG THE BNDRIES...WITH CU
LKNG BTR DVLPD NR THE INTSCTN DURNG THE PAST HR.  H3 SPD MAX OF 65KTS
PROGD OVR WRN MO AT 00Z SHUD AID UVM IN NE OK.

TSTMS HV INCRSD AGN IN SE KS THIS AFTN...PSBLY IN ASSOCTN WITH THE H3
SPD MAX...AND NR THE H85 FRONT.

SINCE ISLD SVR HAS ALRDY OCCURD...XPCT THE POTNL FOR SVR TO CONT INTO
THE EVE HRS.

CURRENT FNT OVR THE AREA IS PROGGD TO WASH OUT TNGT AS NEXT SYS APCHS.
PROVIDNG ACTVTY TNGT FADES AS EXPECTED...NEXT SIG SHOT FOR TSTMS WL BE
WITH THE NEW CDFNT AS IT ARRIVES FM THE NW LATE WED.  AIRMASS MAY BCM
TOO CAPPED FOR ACTVTY AHEAD OF THE FNT...BUT LLVL CONVGNC OF HI SFC
DWPNTS INTO THE BNDRY IS LKLY TO RESULT IN A SQL LN ACRS THE FA DESPITE
THE FASTER MID LVL FLOW REMAING TO THE N.

FRONT SHUD REACH NW PART OF THE FA LATE TOMORROW AND MOVE INTO SE OK ON
THU MORNG AND CONT SEWD OUT OF THE AREA.  BIG TEMP DIFFERENCES IN MOS
PACKAGES...HV LEANED TOWARD COOLER NGM.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

TUL 73/90/65/84/65 3231  BVO 69/90/60/81 4431
MLC 76/93/70/86/62 -143  IDB 73/92/70/89 --33

/8

.OK...NONE.

OKZ026>034-040-091200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
150 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 1992

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM KIOWA TO PAGE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS LINE BUT THEY SHOULD NOT BE
SEVERE.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
NEAR WESTVILLE TO OKMULGEE TO OKLAHOMA CITY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 90S AND THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE. NORTH OF THE FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WERE HOLDING
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOWER 70S. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE FRONT AS THE WARM MOIST AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
OVERRUNS THE COOL SURFACE AIR TO THE NORTH. A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEVERE IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
NORTHWARD MOVING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE AND
WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THESE STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN THIS AREA WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE
TO THE WEAK WIND FIELDS SO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS IN AND NEAR THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

NOTE...THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUANCE OF THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED ROUTINELY FROM MID MARCH TO MID JUNE
AND AS NEEDED DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE YEAR.

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
252 PM CDT TUE SEP 08 1992

TIME(CDT)                   COUNTY            REPORT

115 PM                      ROGERS            DIME SIZE HAIL AT CHELSEA

OKZ027-028-029-082345-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
543 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 1992

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

AT 538PM CDT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM JUST WEST OF JAY IN ADAIR
COUNTY...TO NEAR TULSA.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED IN THIS LINE IN WESTERN MAYES
COUNTY...AN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM
FOR MAYES COUNTY.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND
PERSONS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD LISTEN CLOSELY FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION FROM THEJ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.