Severe Thunderstorm Warning 286, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
915 PM CDT MON AUG 10 1992

TSTMS TRYING TO SURROUND ERN OK ATTM WITH COMPLEX IN AR AND MO TRACKING
SOUTHWEST AND COMPLEX IN SW KS TRACKING SOUTHEAST. FEW ISOLATED STORMS
IN THE ARKLATEX REGION AS WELL. AIRMASS OVER ERN OK REMAINS CAPPED AT
THE PRESENT TIME BUT CAP MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SURVIVE THE NIGHT.

AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LARGE POSITIVE AREAS WITH LARGE CAPE VALUES.
TOP AND DDC SOUNDINGS REALLY STAND OUT WITH UMN NOT FAR BEHIND. ANY
STORMS THAT DO GET GOING OVERNIGHT STAND AN EXCELLENT CHANCE OF GOING
SEVERE. H8 DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS SO PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR HEAVY RAINS WITH STORMS AS WELL.

TWO SFC BOUNDARIES EXIST FOR STORMS TO FIRE ON. ONE IS THE WEAK SFC
TROF WHICH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE OTHER IS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN
IN NO BIG HURRY TO MOVE SOUTH EITHER. THIS FRONT WAS NEAR AN MCI/TOP/
RSL LINE AT 01Z. BOTH BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY DROP VERY SLOWLY SOUTH
DURING THE NIGHT BUT NO WHERE NEAR AS FAST AS THE NGM FCSTS. THE LFM
AND AVN ARE MUCH MORE REASONABLE.

WILL UP POPS TONIGHT NEAR THE SFC TROF AND ALSO ADJUST WINDS FOR THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SFC BOUNDARIES. WILL LEAVE TEMPS ALONE AS THEY
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

COLD FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR SOUTH AND WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AT MIDWEEK TO GET A
FROPA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THAT TIME...UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY
WEATHER SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS ERN OK. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THAT TIME WITH TEMPS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUDS/PRECIP. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS ATTM BUT
WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE EXTREME NRN ZONES TUESDAY.

RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN LAST 10 MINUTES IN SW MO CONFIRMS MY BELIEF
THAT THE CAP WILL NOT LAST THE NIGHT. WILL MENTION POSSIBLY SEVERE IN
MOST ZONES TONIGHT.

.OK...NONE.

PLATE

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1144 PM CDT MON AUG 10 1992

TIME (CDT)        COUNTY         REPORT

1117 PM           OTTAWA         DIME SIZE HAIL 1 MILE NORTH OF
                                 OTTAWA-DELAWARE COUNTY LINE NORTH
                                 OF HIGHWAY 125 (4 MILES SOUTH OF
                                 FAIRLAND).

1140 PM           DELAWARE       SEVERAL TREES DOWNED BY HIGH WINDS
                        L         IN WEST SILOAM SPRINGS.