Tornadoes · United States · North Carolina · 2021

EF1 tornado, Carr to Mc Dade, North Carolina, March 18, 2021

From Carr to Mc Dade, this EF1 tornado ran 4.3 miles across Orange County on March 18, 2021, touching down at 6:04 PM EDT and reaching 200 yards wide. It killed nobody, and did $150,000 of property damage.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mphthis tornado

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF1
Date
March 18, 2021
Touchdown
6:04 PM EDT (22:04 UTC)
Lifted
6:10 PM EDT (22:10 UTC)
On the ground
6 minutes
Path length
4.3 miles (6.8 km)
Path width
200 yards (183 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$150,000
County
Orange County
Touchdown point
36.170, -79.249
Lift-off point
36.200, -79.187
Record number
2103181604-01

What the Weather Service recorded

A mid level trough approached central North Carolina from the west and moved across the area during the afternoon and evening. This helped spark a round of late day showers and thunderstorms, some of which produced severe weather across the central Piedmont along a cold air damming surface boundary. Several tornadic storms occurred along and north of Interstate 85 during the late afternoon hours along the aforementioned boundary.

An EF-1 tornado tracked across portions of northern Orange County, with an estimated maximum wind gusts of around 100 miles per hour. The storm initially produced straight line wind damage across eastern Alamance County before producing more widespread tornado damage in Orange County a few minutes later. The tornado snapped off and downed numerous trees and power lines along the path, along with blowing a roof off a house near Pentecost Road.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

6 minutes of warning. NWS RAH issued a tornado warning for this county at 21:58 UTC, 6 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 22:30 UTC.

The county was under a tornado watch, issued at 20:45 UTC and running to 23:57 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
20:45 UTC23:57 UTCTornado WatchRAH
21:58 UTC22:30 UTCTornado WarningRAH
22:09 UTC23:15 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAH
22:39 UTC22:53 UTCTornado WarningRAH
22:59 UTC23:20 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAH

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Enhanced Risk, with a 0.10 chance of a tornado within 25 miles, in the hatched area where significant tornadoes were expected. The outlook in force was issued at 21:26 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), 12:00Z

10.1 hours before the tornado, 62 km from the path. March 18, 2021.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2021-03-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 0 joules per kilogram, CIN -55113, lifted condensation level 486 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2021-03-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 470 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 67 knots.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-55113 J/kg
Surface CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
486 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
67 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
470 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
562 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
2.7 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), 00:00Z

1.9 hours after it, 62 km from the path. March 19, 2021.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2021-03-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 171 joules per kilogram, CIN -69, lifted condensation level 828 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2021-03-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 102 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 78 knots.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
171 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-69 J/kg
Surface CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
828 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
78 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
102 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
112 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.5
0-3 km lapse rate
4.9 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 87 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 22:01 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
21:38 UTCTORNADO3 S GibsonvilleGuilford, NCNWS STORM SURVEY TEAM CONFIRMED A DISCONTINUOUS PATH OF DAMAGE TO MULTIPLE STRUCTURES AND TREES CONSISTENT WITH THAT OF AN EF-1 TORNADO. THE TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND INTERMITTENTLY FOR 6 MINUTES BEFORE LIFTING. PATH LEN
21:40 UTCTSTM WND DMG2 S GibsonvilleGuilford, NCROOFS OFF HOUSES, MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ALONG ETHANS WAY.
21:50 UTCTSTM WND DMG1 S Elon CollegeAlamance, NCOVERTURNED AND DAMAGED BUS FROM THUNDERSTORM WINDS REPORTED.
21:50 UTCTSTM WND DMG1 S Elon CollegeAlamance, NCTREE REPORTED DOWN NEAR ELON NC.
21:58 UTCTSTM WND DMG1 Sse JerichoCaswell, NCA FEW LARGE LIMBS DOWN ON EB TATE ROAD.
22:04 UTCTORNADO4 Ssw CarrOrange, NCNWS STORM SURVEY TEAM CONFIRMED A PATH OF DAMAGE CONSISTENT WITH THAT OF AN EF-1 TORNADO ACROSS NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. THE TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND FOR 6 MINUTES BEFORE LIFTING. PATH LENGTH ESTIMATED AT 4.25 MILES. PAT
22:07 UTCTSTM WND DMG2 Sse CarrOrange, NCTREES DOWN AND ROOFS OFF HOUSE ALONG PENTECOST RD.
22:35 UTCTSTM WND GST 455 Nw RougemontPerson, NCMEASURED AT ROXBORO PERSON COUNTY AIRPORT.
22:35 UTCTSTM WND GST 465 Nw RougemontPerson, NCMEASURED AT ROXBORO PERSON COUNTY AIRPORT.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2021 tornado in North CarolinaEvery tornado in North Carolina since 1950Warnings in force in North Carolina nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of March 18, 2021

15 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
March 184:08 AM CDTEF1Crenshaw, AL0.5150
March 185:27 AM CDTEF1Houston, AL5.21501$200,000
March 185:49 AM CDTEF0Houston, AL2.150$4,000
March 186:02 AM CDTEF0Washington, FL1.625
March 186:02 AM CDTEF0Bay, FL3.9100$100,000
March 186:25 AM CDTEF1Bay, FL0.450$50,000
March 187:44 AM EDTEF0Early, GA3.150
March 188:40 AM EDTEF0Liberty, FL0.025
March 188:49 AM EDTEF1Terrell, GA4.0200$20,000
March 189:06 AM EDTEF1Lee, GA10.450$250,000
March 181:38 PM EDTEF0Pierce, GA0.15
March 182:46 PM EDTEF0Gilchrist, FL12.5100
March 185:01 PM EDTEF1Guilford, NC2.6500$500,000
March 185:38 PM EDTEF1Alamance, NC2.5200$1.0 million
March 189:27 PM EDTEF0Isle of Wight, VA4.2150$100,000

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.