Tornadoes · United States · New Mexico · 2016

EF0 tornado, Carlsbad to Avalon, New Mexico, September 17, 2016

From Carlsbad to Avalon, this EF0 tornado ran 0.9 miles across Eddy County on September 17, 2016, touching down at 4:50 PM MDT and reaching 200 yards wide. It killed nobody.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mphthis tornado

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mph

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF0
Date
September 17, 2016
Touchdown
4:50 PM MDT (22:50 UTC)
Lifted
4:53 PM MDT (22:53 UTC)
On the ground
3 minutes
Path length
0.9 miles (1.5 km)
Path width
200 yards (183 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
County
Eddy County
Touchdown point
32.647, -104.118
Lift-off point
32.640, -104.105
Record number
1609171650-01

What the Weather Service recorded

An upper level disturbance moved over the area, and a lingering frontal boundary was across parts of southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. Upper level lift associated with an area of intense winds aloft moved over the region. There was good wind shear, moisture, and instability across West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Two other boundaries were moving toward the area and possibly collided with the initial boundary. These conditions combined to create good lift in the atmosphere which resulted in widespread thunderstorms with large hail across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. The wind shear created spin in the atmosphere which allowed for tornadoes to develop in the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico.

A supercell thunderstorm moved southeast across Eddy County and produced a weak tornado approximately 17 miles north northeast of Carlsbad, NM. Eyewitness reports from a storm spotter in the area indicate the tornado began around 5:50 pm CDT and lasted only a few minutes. This tornado, rated an EF0, touched down in open fields and no damage was reported.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

No tornado warning for this county appears in the archive as in force at the moment the tornado touched down. One was issued for the county at another hour that day.

The county was under a severe thunderstorm watch, issued at 20:02 UTC and running to 03:00 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
20:02 UTC03:00 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WatchMAF
21:24 UTC22:30 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAF
22:26 UTC23:30 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAF
22:38 UTC01:45 UTCFlood AdvisoryMAF
23:22 UTC00:15 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAF
00:17 UTC01:15 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAF
00:21 UTC00:45 UTCTornado WarningMAF
01:05 UTC02:00 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAF

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Slight Risk, with a 0.02 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 19:59 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), 12:00Z

10.8 hours before the tornado, 196 km from the path. September 17, 2016.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2016-09-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 1130 joules per kilogram, CIN -141, lifted condensation level 957 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2016-09-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 142 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 45 knots.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1130 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-141 J/kg
Surface CAPE
610 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
957 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
142 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
146 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
2.1
0-3 km lapse rate
4.9 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), 00:00Z

1.2 hours after it, 196 km from the path. September 18, 2016.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 00:00Z on 2016-09-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 2085 joules per kilogram, CIN -69, lifted condensation level 1172 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 00:00Z on 2016-09-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 136 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 43 knots.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2085 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-69 J/kg
Surface CAPE
1582 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1172 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
43 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
136 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
310 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.1
Supercell composite
7.2
0-3 km lapse rate
5.4 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The radar

The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 194 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 22:49 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
22:00 UTCHAIL 2.754 Wnw ArtesiaEddy, NMREPORT OF QUARTER TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL THAT AFFECTED LOCATIONS FROM THE ARTESIA AIRPORT, OR 4 MILES WNW OF ARTESIA, TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF ARTESIA. TWO HEAD INJURIES REPORTED DUE TO GOLF BALL OR LARGER SIZE HAIL BETWEEN 50
22:15 UTCHAIL 1.751 W ArtesiaEddy, NMGOLF BALL SIZE HAIL 1-2 MILES WEST OF ARTESIA.
22:15 UTCHAIL 1.753 N ArtesiaEddy, NM415 MDT
22:17 UTCHAIL 1.75ArtesiaEddy, NMGOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ON THE WEST SIDE OF ARTESIA.
22:17 UTCHAIL 2.52 N ArtesiaEddy, NM
22:17 UTCHAIL 2.75ArtesiaEddy, NMARTESIA AIRPORT MANAGER REPORTS EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND HANGERS
22:21 UTCHAIL 2.751 W ArtesiaEddy, NMBROKEN WINDSHIELD ON CAR AND BROKEN WINDOW IN HOUSE.
22:30 UTCHAIL 2.5ArtesiaEddy, NMHAIL STARTED OUT AS PEA SIZE HAIL, BUT GOT UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. HAIL DENTED THEIR CAR AND DAMAGED SOME TREES.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2016 tornado in New MexicoEvery tornado in New Mexico since 1950Warnings in force in New Mexico nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of September 17, 2016

6 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
September 173:43 PM MDTEF0Cheyenne, CO0.8100$46,000
September 173:43 PM MDTEF0Cheyenne, CO1.9100
September 176:35 PM EDTEF1Warren, PA1.640$20,000
September 177:13 PM CDTEF1Ector, TX5.9400$30,000
September 179:41 PM CDTEF0Moore, TX0.015
September 179:47 PM CDTEF0Moore, TX1.2150

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.