Tornadoes · United States · Minnesota · 2019

EF1 tornado, Scandia to Shafer, Minnesota, July 28, 2019

From Scandia to Shafer, this EF1 tornado ran 8.2 miles across Washington and Chisago counties on July 28, 2019, touching down at 4:28 PM CDT and reaching 440 yards wide. It killed nobody, and did $2.0 million of property damage.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mphthis tornado

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF1
Date
July 28, 2019
Touchdown
4:28 PM CDT (21:28 UTC)
Lifted
4:47 PM CDT (21:47 UTC)
On the ground
19 minutes
Path length
8.2 miles (13.1 km)
Path width
440 yards (402 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$2.0 million
Crop damage
$10,000
Counties
Washington and Chisago counties
Touchdown point
45.248, -92.902
Lift-off point
45.336, -92.791
Record number
1907281528-01

The damage survey

29 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS MPX, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF1. The highest wind the damage implies is 90 mph.

  • Solar panels broken and thrown. Unsure if damage was from debris or winds itself, didn't get close enough.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

Several severe storms developed in a highly sheared environment. Instability was adequate enough to cause a few of the storms to become tornadic near Silver Lake, and around Forest Lake, and Scandia during the afternoon of Sunday, July 28th. ||A storm survey found a total of six tornadoes. These surveys indicated an EF1 tornado formed near Silver Lake, and another between Forest Lake, north of Scandia, and into southern Chicago County. ||The worst damage occurred along Bone Lake near Scandia, where very large trees were uprooted or blown down. Some of the trees caused significant damage to lake homes on Bone Lake.

An EF1 tornado spun up on the southwest side of Sylvan Lake and continued northeast in a broken path through Bone Lake, and moved into Chisago County on 240th Street North, east of Morgan Avenue. The path length was approximately 4.4 miles across Washington County, with a maximum width of 440 yards. The worst damage occurred on Bone Lake where numerous large trees were uprooted or blown down. Some roof damage was noted, but most of the trees fell away from homes. Other damage along the path was associated with flattened corn, tree damage, a storage shed that had its roof blown off, and damage to a solar panel farm.

This is the continuation path of the Washington County tornado that moved into Chisago County on 240th Street North, east of Morgan Avenue. This EF1 tornado continued for approximately another 3.8 miles before dissipating north of a farm that was damaged on 268th Street. Along the path in Chisago County, the tornado damaged a farm shed, uprooted numerous trees, damaged an outdoor wedding venue near Highway 25, and destroyed an outbuilding before dissipating. Maximum winds were estimated at 90 mph, with a width of 250 yards in Chisago County.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

3 minutes of warning. NWS MPX issued a tornado warning for this county at 21:25 UTC, 3 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 21:41 UTC.

The county was under a tornado watch, issued at 19:52 UTC and running to 23:20 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
19:52 UTC23:20 UTCTornado WatchMPX
21:25 UTC21:41 UTCTornado WarningMPX

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Slight Risk, with a 0.05 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 19:57 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), 12:00Z

9.5 hours before the tornado, 77 km from the path. July 28, 2019.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2019-07-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 0 joules per kilogram, CIN -77194, lifted condensation level 1530 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2019-07-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 54 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 23 knots.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-77194 J/kg
Surface CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1530 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
23 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
11 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
54 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
84 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
2.7 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), 00:00Z

2.5 hours after it, 77 km from the path. July 29, 2019.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 00:00Z on 2019-07-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 6 joules per kilogram, CIN -73, lifted condensation level 845 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 00:00Z on 2019-07-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 244 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 34 knots.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
6 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-73 J/kg
Surface CAPE
1097 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
845 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
244 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
272 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.1
0-3 km lapse rate
5.7 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 75 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 21:26 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
21:26 UTCTORNADO4 Ese Forest LakeWashington, MNTORNADO SPUN UP ON SOUTHWEST SIDE OF SYLVAN LAKE AND CONTINUED NORTHEAST IN A BROKEN PATH THROUGH BONE LAKE AND ENDING JUST SOUTH OF SPIDER LAKE. MOSTLY TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED. MAX PATH WIDTH 1/4 MILE WITH 90 MPH WINDS.
21:29 UTCTORNADO2 Sw Forest LakeWashington, MNFIREFIGHTER PHONED IN REPORT OF TORNADO NEAR HIGHWAY 97 AND ENFIELD AVENUE.
21:30 UTCTORNADO4 W ScandiaWashington, MNAMENDS PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 4 W SCANDIA. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AND TREES ON 2 HOUSES. ADDITIONAL DAMAGE REPORTED NW TOWARD MORGAN AVE. AND 238TH ST 3 NW OF SCANDIA. TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES AND BUILDING
21:30 UTCTORNADO4 W ScandiaWashington, MNMULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AND TREES ON 2 HOUSES.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2019 tornado in MinnesotaEvery tornado in Minnesota since 1950Warnings in force in Minnesota nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of July 28, 2019

8 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
July 282:23 PM CDTEF1Nelson, ND3.8100
July 283:17 PM CDTEF0McLeod, MN4.0200
July 283:32 PM CDTEF0McLeod, MN0.325
July 283:36 PM CDTEF1McLeod, MN2.6440
July 285:31 PM CDTEF0Polk, WI4.8100
July 286:41 PM CDTEF0Barron, WI0.425
July 288:53 PM CDTUnratedCharles Mix, SD1.210
July 289:10 PM CDTEF0Boyd, NE0.030

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.