Tornadoes · United States · Kansas · 2021

EF1 tornado, Sublette Arpt to Tice, Kansas, October 12, 2021

From Sublette Arpt to Tice, this EF1 tornado ran 12.9 miles across Haskell County on October 12, 2021, touching down at 9:23 PM CDT and reaching 150 yards wide. It killed nobody.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mphthis tornado

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF1
Date
October 12, 2021
Touchdown
9:23 PM CDT (02:23 UTC)
Lifted
9:37 PM CDT (02:37 UTC)
On the ground
14 minutes
Path length
12.9 miles (20.7 km)
Path width
150 yards (137 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
County
Haskell County
Touchdown point
37.398, -100.802
Lift-off point
37.544, -100.654
Record number
2110122023-01

The damage survey

13 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS DDC, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF1. The highest wind the damage implies is 110 mph.

  • Pivot flipped but not rolled
  • Broken poles already replaced

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

A line of thunderstorms developed along a boundary over eastern Colorado and pushed east northeast into the CWA late evening and lasted through the early morning hours. With ample low level moisture with the southeast wind flow at the surface, instability was very high over 3000 J/kg. Moderate shear and steep mid level lapse rates lead to large hail and damaging winds for the biggest threat with a handful of QLCS short lived tornadoes.

This was a qlcs tornado.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

1 minute of warning. NWS DDC issued a tornado warning for this county at 02:22 UTC, 1 minute before the tornado touched down, in force until 02:45 UTC.

The county was under a tornado watch, issued at 20:49 UTC and running to 04:00 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
20:49 UTC04:00 UTCTornado WatchDDC
01:02 UTC01:45 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDC
01:37 UTC02:15 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDC
02:07 UTC03:00 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDC
02:22 UTC02:45 UTCTornado WarningDDC
02:34 UTC02:49 UTCTornado WarningDDC
02:46 UTC03:30 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDC

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Moderate Risk, with a 0.15 chance of a tornado within 25 miles, in the hatched area where significant tornadoes were expected. The outlook in force was issued at 00:33 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Dodge City, (KDDC), 00:00Z

2.4 hours before the tornado, 80 km from the path. October 13, 2021.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2021-10-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 441 joules per kilogram, CIN -298, lifted condensation level 585 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2021-10-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 383 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 64 knots.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
441 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-298 J/kg
Surface CAPE
502 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
585 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
64 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
383 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
374 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2
0-3 km lapse rate
4.6 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Dodge City, (KDDC), 12:00Z

9.6 hours after it, 80 km from the path. October 13, 2021.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2021-10-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 0 joules per kilogram, CIN -90001, lifted condensation level 2079 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2021-10-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -284 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 95 knots.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-90001 J/kg
Surface CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2079 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
95 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-284 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-160 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
2.7 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 74 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 02:22 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
01:40 UTCTSTM WND GST 581 Ene Garden CityFinney, KSMESONET STATION KS010 US-50 @ K-156 BRIDGE GARDEN CITY.
01:40 UTCHAIL 13 Ssw HugotonStevens, KS
02:35 UTCTSTM WND GST 663 Nw PiercevilleFinney, KSASOS STATION KGCK GARDEN CITY.
02:36 UTCTORNADO4 Se TiceHaskell, KS
02:55 UTCTSTM WND GST 704 N MontezumaGray, KS
02:57 UTCHAIL 1.253 Wsw The Haggard ElevaGray, KS
03:13 UTCTORNADO3 S HowellFord, KSDAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO A BARN ALONG WITH A GAS LEAK AT THE INTERSECTION OF 102 RD AND MARSHALL RD.
03:23 UTCTORNADO3 N HowellFord, KSTORNADO DAMAGE TO A BARN.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2021 tornado in KansasEvery tornado in Kansas since 1950Warnings in force in Kansas nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of October 12, 2021

20 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
October 126:48 PM CDTEF0Beckham, OK0.110
October 127:24 PM CDTUnratedWashita, OK0.125
October 126:25 PM MDTEF0Wallace, KS3.3100
October 127:38 PM CDTEF0Tillman, OK0.430
October 127:41 PM CDTEF1Tillman, OK7.3300$50,000
October 127:55 PM CDTEF1Custer, OK9.6400
October 128:01 PM CDTUnratedCuster, OK0.220
October 128:19 PM CDTEF1Tillman, OK0.9300$5,000
October 128:26 PM CDTEF1Comanche, OK8.4900$15,000
October 129:00 PM CDTUnratedComanche, OK2.650
October 129:35 PM CDTUnratedCaddo, OK0.530
October 1210:02 PM CDTEF1Gray, KS1.975
October 1210:12 PM CDTEF1Ford, KS7.175
October 1210:39 PM CDTEF1Ford, KS10.775$110,000
October 1211:22 PM CDTEF1Ford, KS2.075
October 1211:38 PM CDTEF1Ford, KS0.950
October 1211:48 PM CDTUnratedKiowa, KS4.675
October 1211:49 PM CDTEF1Kiowa, KS3.575
October 1211:59 PM CDTEF1Edwards, KS6.3100
October 1212:05 AM CDTEF1Edwards, KS6.6100

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.