Tornadoes · United States · Kansas · 2015

EF1 tornado, Paola Majeski Arpt to Wagstaff, Kansas, September 18, 2015

From Paola Majeski Arpt to Wagstaff, this EF1 tornado ran 9.3 miles across Miami County on September 18, 2015, touching down at 7:09 PM CDT and reaching 100 yards wide. It killed nobody and injured 1.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mphthis tornado

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF1
Date
September 18, 2015
Touchdown
7:09 PM CDT (00:09 UTC)
Lifted
7:35 PM CDT (00:35 UTC)
On the ground
26 minutes
Path length
9.3 miles (14.9 km)
Path width
100 yards (91 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
1
County
Miami County
Touchdown point
38.641, -94.953
Lift-off point
38.656, -94.783
Record number
1509181809-01

The damage survey

22 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS EAX, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF1. The highest wind the damage implies is 110 mph.

  • Damage was inconsistent with damage to other nearby structures and vegetation. Other structures indicated damage consistent with EF1.
  • House not properly fastened to foundation.
  • At least 3 Unsecured RVs rolled and destroyed. 1 non-critical injury
  • Numerous large trees also uprooted at this residence.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

After a generally rainy and cloudy, enough sunshine broke through late in the afternoon to enable a supercell thunderstorm to develop, along a southeastward advancing cold front. The supercell produced several tornadoes with a rating up to an EF-1. The storm developed just prior to the start of Friday night football games. Officials at one game evacuated the stands prior to a direct hit on the stadium. They credited the tornado warnings with providing enough lead time to get people inside and into safety before the tornado hit.

A NWS survey team concluded that the tornado developed near the southeast side of Hillsdale Lake, traveling a few degrees north of east, before dissipating in rural Miami county between Spring Hill and Louisburg. The tornado caused one non-critical injury at a trailer park at Hillsdale Lake. A single wide manufactured home was rolled but remained essentially intact. Three unsecured RVs were also rolled and destroyed.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

No tornado warning for this county appears in the archive as in force at the moment the tornado touched down. One was issued for the county at another hour that day.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
15:00 UTC02:05 UTCFlash Flood WatchEAX
23:13 UTC23:45 UTCTornado WarningEAX
23:32 UTC23:58 UTCTornado WarningEAX

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Slight Risk, with a 0.02 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 19:59 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Topeka, KS (KFOE), 00:00Z

0.2 hours before the tornado, 77 km from the path. September 19, 2015.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2015-09-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 3 joules per kilogram, CIN 0, lifted condensation level 525 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2015-09-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -86 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 44 knots.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Surface CAPE
5 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
525 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-86 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
152 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
6.0
0-3 km lapse rate
4.0 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Topeka, KS (KFOE), 12:00Z

11.8 hours after it, 77 km from the path. September 19, 2015.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2015-09-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 0 joules per kilogram, CIN -80301, lifted condensation level 1050 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2015-09-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -84 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 35 knots.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-80301 J/kg
Surface CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1050 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-84 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-32 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
2.2 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 55 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 00:07 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
23:11 UTCTORNADO3 W HillsdaleMiami, KSTORNADO REPORTED WITH DEBRIS IN THE AIR
23:32 UTCTORNADOWagstaffMiami, KSTORNADO WITH DEBRIS REPORTED APPROACHING WAGSTAFF.
23:45 UTCTORNADOLouisburgMiami, KS

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2015 tornado in KansasEvery tornado in Kansas since 1950Warnings in force in Kansas nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of September 18, 2015

3 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
September 184:44 PM CDTEF1Will, IL2.650$70,000
September 187:57 PM CDTEF1Cass, MO5.2100
September 188:32 PM CDTEF0Cass, MO2.325

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.