Tornadoes · United States · Illinois · 2015
EF1 tornado, Lone Tree, Illinois, July 16, 2015
This EF1 tornado ran 0.8 miles across Henderson County on July 16, 2015, touching down at 6:09 PM CDT and reaching 100 yards wide. It killed nobody, and did $25,000 of property damage.
The rating scale
Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.
EF065 to 85 mph
Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.
EF186 to 110 mphthis tornado
Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.
EF2111 to 135 mph
Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.
EF3136 to 165 mph
Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.
EF4166 to 200 mph
Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.
EF5over 200 mph
Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.
Unrated
The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.
The record
- Rating
- EF1
- Date
- July 16, 2015
- Touchdown
- 6:09 PM CDT (23:09 UTC)
- Lifted
- 6:12 PM CDT (23:12 UTC)
- On the ground
- 3 minutes
- Path length
- 0.8 miles (1.4 km)
- Path width
- 100 yards (91 m)
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- $25,000
- County
- Henderson County
- Touchdown point
- 40.833, -90.999
- Lift-off point
- 40.841, -90.988
- Record number
- 1507161709-01
The damage survey
6 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS DVN, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF1. The highest wind the damage implies is 97 mph.
Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.
What the Weather Service recorded
A wave on a northward moving warm front produced scattered thunderstorms along the boundary. Low level shear was favorable for severe weather and tornadoes.
An EF1 tornado with maximum winds estimated at 95 mph touched down 1.1 miles east of Lone Tree, IL. The tornado traveled 0.84 miles and lifted 1.8 miles east northeast of Lone Tree. The maximum path width was about 100 yards. Along the path, trees and outbuildings were destroyed.
From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.
The warnings
24 minutes of warning. NWS DVN issued a tornado warning for this county at 22:45 UTC, 24 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 23:30 UTC.
The county was under a severe thunderstorm watch, issued at 21:58 UTC and running to 02:11 UTC.
| Issued (UTC) | Expired | Product | Office |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 UTC | 06:00 UTC | Flash Flood Watch | DVN |
| 21:58 UTC | 02:11 UTC | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | DVN |
| 22:32 UTC | 23:15 UTC | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DVN |
| 22:45 UTC | 23:30 UTC | Tornado Warning | DVN |
| 23:17 UTC | 00:00 UTC | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DVN |
| 23:35 UTC | 00:01 UTC | Tornado Warning | DVN |
Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.
The forecast that day
The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Slight Risk, with a 0.02 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 19:50 UTC.
SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.
The air that afternoon
The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.
Davenport, (KDVN), 12:00Z
11.2 hours before the tornado, 96 km from the path. July 16, 2015.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -54138 J/kg
- Surface CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1260 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 17 kt
- 0-1 km bulk shear
- 11 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 44 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 229 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
- 0-3 km lapse rate
- 3.5 K/km
Davenport, (KDVN), 00:00Z
0.8 hours after it, 96 km from the path. July 17, 2015.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 883 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -30 J/kg
- Surface CAPE
- 1247 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 796 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km bulk shear
- 22 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 141 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 181 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.5
- Supercell composite
- 3.0
- 0-3 km lapse rate
- 5.4 K/km
The surface observations
Burlington (BRL), 13 km from the path, in the two hours either side.
| Time (UTC) | Temp (°F) | Dew point (°F) | Wind | Gust (kt) | Pressure (mb) | Weather |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:53 UTC | 83 | 77 | 170° 11 kt | 1008.1 | ||
| 22:28 UTC | 83 | 78 | 160° 9 kt | 1007.5 | TS | |
| 22:33 UTC | 82 | 79 | 200° 11 kt | 1008.1 | +TSRA BR | |
| 22:39 UTC | 81 | 79 | 160° 7 kt | 1007.5 | +TSRA FG | |
| 22:53 UTC | 80 | 79 | 260° 13 kt | 18 | 1006.8 | TSRA BR |
| 22:57 UTC | 79 | 78 | 280° 11 kt | 17 | 1007.1 | -TSRA BR |
| 23:06 UTC | 80 | 78 | 1005.4 | -TSRA BR | ||
| 23:09 UTC | 80 | 78 | 150° 16 kt | 20 | 1005.4 | -TSRA BR |
| 23:16 UTC | 80 | 79 | 290° 4 kt | 20 | 1007.1 | TS |
| 23:53 UTC | 80 | 78 | 270° 9 kt | 17 | 1007.5 | -TSRA BR |
| 00:42 UTC | 78 | 76 | 4 kt | 1008.8 | VCTS | |
| 00:53 UTC | 75 | 74 | 60° 7 kt | 1008.8 | VCTS |
From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.
The radar
The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 93 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 23:09 UTC.
Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track
Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.
What was reported nearby
Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.
| Time (UTC) | Report | Where | County | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:04 UTC | TORNADO 1 | 3 Sw Gladstone | Henderson, IL | RATING EF-1. ESTIMATED PEAK WIND 95 MPH. PATH LENGTH 0.84 MILES. MAX WIDTH 100 YARDS. START TIME 604 PM CDT. START LOCATION 2.9 MILES SW GLADSTONE IL. END TIME 607 PM CDT. END LOCATION 2.4 MILES SW GLADSTONE IL. |
| 23:19 UTC | TSTM WND DMG | 1 E Gulfport | Henderson, IL | SEMI OVERTURNED BETWEEN GLADSTONE AND BURLINGTON ON HWY 34. |
| 23:39 UTC | TORNADO | 1 Sw Biggsville | Henderson, IL | POSSIBLE TORNADO |
| 23:50 UTC | TORNADO 1 | 3 Ssw Kirkwood | Warren, IL | RATING EF-1. ESTIMATED PEAK WIND 90 MPH. PATH LENGTH 1.4 MILES. MAX WIDTH 50 YARDS. START TIME 645 PM CDT. START LOCATION 2.5 MILES SW KIRKWOOD IL. END TIME 650 PM CDT. END LOCATION 1.5 MILES S KIRKWOOD IL. |
| 23:50 UTC | TORNADO 1 | 3 Ssw Kirkwood | Warren, IL | RATING EF-1. ESTIMATED PEAK WIND 90 MPH. PATH LENGTH 1.4 MILES. MAX WIDTH 50 YARDS. START TIME 650 PM CDT. START LOCATION 2.5 MILES SW KIRKWOOD IL. END TIME 652 PM CDT. END LOCATION 1.5 MILES S KIRKWOOD IL. |
| 23:59 UTC | TORNADO | Kirkwood | Warren, IL | TORNADO STILL ON GROUND MOVING EAST...A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS ALSO SEEN. |
| 00:03 UTC | TORNADO 2 | 2 E Kirkwood | Warren, IL | RATING EF-2. ESTIMATED PEAK WIND 120 MPH. PATH LENGTH 1.7 MILES. MAX WIDTH 300 YARDS. START TIME 659 PM CDT. START LOCATION 2 MILES E KIRKWOOD IL. END TIME 703 PM CDT. END LOCATION 2 MILES SW MONMOUTH IL. |
| 00:04 UTC | TORNADO | Monmouth | Warren, IL | POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR US 34 |
| 00:09 UTC | TORNADO 2 | 2 E Kirkwood | Warren, IL | RATING EF-2. ESTIMATED PEAK WIND 120 MPH. PATH LENGTH 1.7 MILES. MAX WIDTH 300 YARDS. START TIME 709 PM CDT. START LOCATION 2 MILES E KIRKWOOD IL. END TIME 713 PM CDT. END LOCATION 2 MILES SW MONMOUTH IL. |
| 00:10 UTC | TSTM WND DMG | 6 W Monmouth | Warren, IL | TIME ESTIMATED - AT SHAUMANS CORNER ABOUT 6.5 MILES WEST OF MONMOUTH ON US 34 THERE WAS A GRAIN BIN BLOWN DOWN ALONG WITH A CATTLE BARN. POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN AS WELL. |
| 00:30 UTC | TORNADO 2 | Cameron | Warren, IL | EF-2. PEAK WIND 125 MPH. PATH LENGTH 8.2 MILES. MAX WIDTH 700 YARDS. START TIME 713 PM CDT. START LOCATION 1 MILE SE MONMOUTH IL. END TIME 734 PM CDT. END LOCATION 2.2 MILES E CAMERON IL. |
| 00:30 UTC | TORNADO | Cameron | Warren, IL | |
| 00:42 UTC | TSTM WND DMG | W Roseville | Warren, IL | REPORT WAS DELAYED. TIME OF THE EVENT WAS ESTIMATED BY RADAR. STRONG GUSTY WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM BROUGHT SEVERAL TREE LIMBS AND SHINGLES DOWN. THE LIMBS WERE ABOUT 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND APPROXIMATELY 1 |
| 00:55 UTC | TSTM WND DMG | East Galesburg | Knox, IL | POWER LINES DOWN |
| 00:55 UTC | HEAVY RAIN 1.14 | Galesburg | Knox, IL | ONE HOUR RAINFALL |
| 01:00 UTC | TSTM WND DMG | Knoxville | Knox, IL | POWER LINES DOWN |
| 01:00 UTC | FLASH FLOOD | Galesburg | Knox, IL | SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER |
| 01:03 UTC | TSTM WND GST 60 | 1 W Macomb | Mcdonough, IL | WHOLE TREES IN MOTION. |
| 01:18 UTC | FLASH FLOOD | Galesburg | Knox, IL | SEVERAL INTERSECTIONS DOWNTOWN UNDERWATER |
| 01:45 UTC | FLASH FLOOD | Monmouth | Warren, IL | NUMEROUS PHOTOS OF WATER FLOWING DOWN STREETS - VIA SOCIAL MEDIA |
| 02:00 UTC | HEAVY RAIN 2.62 | Knoxville | Knox, IL | RAIN FELL IN TWO HOURS |
From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.
This ground now
The live radar over the trackEvery 2015 tornado in IllinoisEvery tornado in Illinois since 1950Warnings in force in Illinois nowThe forecast where you are
The other tornadoes of July 16, 2015
8 more were confirmed in the United States that day.
| Date | Time | Rating | Where | Path (mi) | Width (yd) | Deaths | Injuries | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 16 | 5:14 PM CDT | EF0 | Henry, IA | 1.5 | 10 | |||
| July 16 | 6:49 PM CDT | EF1 | Warren, IL | 1.4 | 50 | $2,000 | ||
| July 16 | 7:00 PM CDT | EF1 | Rock Island, IL | 1.1 | 200 | $2,000 | ||
| July 16 | 7:09 PM CDT | EF2 | Warren, IL | 1.7 | 300 | $150,000 | ||
| July 16 | 7:13 PM CDT | EF2 | Warren, IL | 6.0 | 700 | 1 | $1.5 million | |
| July 16 | 8:34 PM CDT | EF0 | Mitchell, IA | 2.1 | 40 | $40,000 | ||
| July 16 | 8:48 PM CDT | EF0 | Whiteside, IL | 0.6 | 10 | |||
| July 16 | 11:39 PM CDT | EF2 | Tazewell, IL | 2.4 | 250 | 1 | $1.2 million |
What this means
Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.
Sources
NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.