Tornadoes · United States · Florida · 2019

EF0 tornado, Oakhurst to Seminole, Florida, October 18, 2019

From Oakhurst to Seminole, this EF0 tornado ran 0.3 miles across Pinellas County on October 18, 2019, touching down at 9:29 PM EDT and reaching 30 yards wide. It killed nobody, and did $100,000 of property damage.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mphthis tornado

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mph

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF0
Date
October 18, 2019
Touchdown
9:29 PM EDT (01:29 UTC)
Lifted
9:32 PM EDT (01:32 UTC)
On the ground
3 minutes
Path length
0.3 miles (0.5 km)
Path width
30 yards (27 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$100,000
County
Pinellas County
Touchdown point
27.840, -82.791
Lift-off point
27.844, -82.789
Record number
1910181929-01

What the Weather Service recorded

Tropical Storm Nestor developed in the Gulf of Mexico and moved northeast, making landfall on St. Vincent Island in the Florida Panhandle on the afternoon of the 19th. The bulk of the convection developed on the eastern and southeastern side of the storm, with a couple bands of showers and storms moving into the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. These bands of storms produced 3 confirmed tornadoes, including one EF-2 tornado in Polk County. Otherwise, straight line winds were minimal in west central and southwest Florida and caused little impacts. ||The highest storm total rainfall in west central and southwest Florida was 7.77 inches in Baskin in Pinellas County, with other areas in Pinellas and parts of Hillsborough County seeing 5 to 6 inches, causing minor nuisance flooding. ||The highest storm surge in the area was 3.6 feet at Cedar Key. Taking into account the astronomical tide cycle, this resulted in a peak water level of 2.27 feet MHHW at 5:18 AM EDT on the 19th.

Damage was reported to several homes in the Twelve Oaks Mobile Home Park in Seminole. A few homes had roof, window, and carport damage, and several trees were knocked down. No injuries were reported.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

26 minutes of warning. NWS TBW issued a tornado warning for this county at 01:03 UTC, 26 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 01:45 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
19:00 UTC00:00 UTCRip Currents StatementTBW
01:03 UTC01:45 UTCTornado WarningTBW
01:48 UTC03:15 UTCFlood AdvisoryTBW
02:28 UTC04:00 UTCFlood AdvisoryTBW
05:00 UTC12:00 UTCHigh Surf AdvisoryTBW
05:52 UTC15:45 UTCTornado WatchTBW
07:08 UTC08:30 UTCFlood AdvisoryTBW
10:18 UTC11:45 UTCFlood AdvisoryTBW
18:49 UTC12:00 UTCCoastal Flood AdvisoryTBW

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Marginal Risk, with a 0.02 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 00:41 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), 00:00Z

1.5 hours before the tornado, 41 km from the path. October 19, 2019.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 00:00Z on 2019-10-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 491 joules per kilogram, CIN -29, lifted condensation level 808 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 00:00Z on 2019-10-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 310 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 48 knots.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
491 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-29 J/kg
Surface CAPE
680 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
808 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
310 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
432 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.9
Supercell composite
4.4
0-3 km lapse rate
5.0 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 41 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 01:29 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
01:20 UTCTORNADOSeminolePinellas, FLSEVERAL REPORTS OF DAMAGE IN THE TWELVE OAKS MOBILE HOME PARK ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2019 tornado in FloridaEvery tornado in Florida since 1950Warnings in force in Florida nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of October 18, 2019

2 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
October 187:02 PM PDTEF1Mason, WA0.790$150,000
October 1810:59 PM EDTEF2Polk, FL11.4525$10 million

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.