Hail in Texas, May 9 to 10, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
626 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

- An isolated thunderstorm or two is still possible in the eastern
  combined Panhandles this afternoon/evening. A severe potential
  remains for hail and straightline winds, although confidence is
  low.

- A cold front tonight will bring temps down to near normal for
  Sunday. Also may bring some low clouds and light drizzle or
  light showers to the central and eastern Panhandles.

- Hot temperatures return Tuesday, of which places like Palo Duro
  may see temps in the lower 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Today, will be watching the lower level moisture supply for
potential storms in the east and potential shower activity late in
the overnight and Sunday morning time period. For this afternoon,
there is still a bit of uncertainty on the amount of surface
moisture that will be available for instability in the eastern two
stacks of counties. Some CAMs have quite robust couple to three
storms popping in the east this afternoon, like the NAM that is
more generous with the surface moisture. While others like the
HRRR develop one or two storms that quickly move into western
Oklahoma before gaining full strength. Not really looking at a
true dryline with steep moisture gradients but there will be some
dry air in the west fighting for space with the moist air across
eastern areas of the Panhandles until a cold front moves through
late tonight.

There have been some increasing agreeance between guidance for
dewpoints staying well in the 50s this afternoon across the east.
SBCAPE values, if any and all CIN erodes, are looking to be
between 1500 and 2500 J/Kg. Also, effective bulk shear is progged
to be around 35 kts. If a storm can mature and hold its strength
ping pong ball to golf ball size hail cannot be ruled out. Bases
of these storms are expected to be high with LCLs around 3km
making the threat for tornados pretty low while increasing the
threat for straightline winds. A storm would have to locally alter
the atmospheric conditions for a tornado to form. All in all, the
Texas Panhandle should not be dealing with strong to severe
storms longer than 2 hours this afternoon/evening as they should
move off into western OK fairly quickly. Earliest start time will
be around 3 PM but most likely around 5 PM with severe storms
pretty much done by 8 PM. That doesn't mean there won't be any
activity in the area just the severe aspect with maybe some
lingering showery stuff hanging out. Could still potentially get
some high based virga showers in the western Panhandles this
evening as well with hints of a disturbance from some model
guidance. If any of these virga showers do form they will be cable
of producing some strong wind gusts with strong inverted Vs in
the forecast soundings.

Then tonight, a cold front
will fill in from the north, mainly after midnight. This front is
expected to bring some breezy winds lasting into the late AM hours
and also bring low clouds with chances of light showers to maybe
some drizzle.

Tomorrow morning, surface winds are expected to be out of the north
around 20-25 mph with some gusts in the 35 to maybe 40 mph behind
the front. The higher values of these ranges is expected to favor
the western combined Panhandles. Td's behind this front are expected
to maintain in the 40s. A shortwave is expected as well that may
help some shower development across the combined Panhandles
especially in the central to eastern Panhandles where moisture will
be deeper. Further west, west to northwest of Amarillo, low clouds
may still be present with a little bit of a drizzle. Looking further
up in the atmosphere on forecast soundings, the mid to upper levels
are looking much drier out over the west to northwestern combined
Panhandles. The front itself will bring cooler temperatures,
however, cloud cover through much of the daytime will help keep
temperatures cooler as well. Highs are progged to be in the 60s.
Enjoy the cool weather as it will not last long.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Monday, upper level ridging will start to build back into the area
from the west. This will help rebound temperatures into the 80s for
Mon afternoon. Tuesday onward, H5 heights rise to near 590 dam
allowing for temperatures to reach well into the 90s, even lower
100s for the common hot spots in the TX Panhandle. Palo Duro Canyon
may even attempt to reach 105 depending on how much the winds can
mix heat trapped at the canyon floor.

The extended period is looking to remain dry. However, Tds in the
40s may lingering across at least some portions of the combined
Panhandles and any ripples in the ridge may pop a couple of isolated
thunderstorms especially under the heat expected Tue onward. For now
do not have PoPs in the forecast until Friday evening that reach
near 15 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions through about 12z for all TAF sites then MVFR
conditions down around 1kft agl, mainly in that 12-18z time period
as post frontal low clouds are in play. Isolated storm just
inside of KGUY's 10 mile range ring, so currently added VCTS
until 0015z to account for the isolated storm. Currently no
PROB30's in the TAFs, but there could be some showers/storms at
KAMA and KGUY in that 12-18z time period. Winds will begin to be
gusty out of the north after 10z with sustained 15-25kt winds
gusting 25-35kts, winds will start to relax back around 10-20kts
after 20z.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...89

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
105 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-100615-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
105 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the eastern combined
Panhandles this afternoon into the evening. There is a potential
for these storms to become severe, with the primary hazards being
large hail and damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for hazardous weather is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
431 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

TXZ009-014-092200-
Gray TX-Roberts TX-
431 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GRAY AND
SOUTHEASTERN ROBERTS COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

At 430 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles west of Codman, or 9 miles northeast of Pampa, moving east at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Miami and Codman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 10090 3569 10095 3582 10067 3565 10054
      3557 10054
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 250DEG 23KT 3565 10084

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Harrel

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
458 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

TXZ009-010-014-015-092230-
Hemphill TX-Gray TX-Wheeler TX-Roberts TX-
458 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WHEELER...
NORTHEASTERN GRAY...SOUTHEASTERN ROBERTS AND SOUTHWESTERN HEMPHILL
COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM CDT...

At 458 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles south of Miami, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Miami, New Mobeetie, Lora, and Mobeetie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3559 10075 3575 10074 3578 10034 3547 10036
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 274DEG 20KT 3562 10065

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Harrel

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
621 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

OKZ003-092345-
Beaver OK-
621 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BEAVER COUNTY
THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 620 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southeast of Knowles, or 15 miles northwest of Laverne, moving
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gate and Knowles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
the Panhandle of Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3673 10040 3692 10026 3692 10000 3660 10001
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 287DEG 22KT 3681 10015

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Harrel