Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed across North and Central Texas on May 27 and 28, triggered by a slow-moving upper-level disturbance. Although the majority of these storms remained sub-severe, a few produced large hail.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed across North and Central Texas on May 27 and 28, triggered by a slow-moving upper-level disturbance. Although the majority of these storms remained sub-severe, a few produced large hail. Additionally, the slow progression of the system led to heavy rainfall and flash flooding in some areas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 27, 4:54 AM CST, 3 hours 36 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 554 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible the rest of tonight through Thursday. A few storms may be strong with small hail, gusty winds, and localized flash flooding. - A relative lull in storm activity is expected Friday and Saturday with highs near 90 and rain chances generally under 30%. - Sunday into next work week will potentially see another uptick in daily rain/thunderstorm chances. && .UPDATE... Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026 The MCV that developed due to overnight convection has exhibited quicker movement towards the north than previously thought. This will put the disturbance into Oklahoma by the afternoon hours with subsidence (preventing convection) over a much more widespread area of North and Central Texas. Furthermore, the remnants of the overnight cold pool in addition to anvil debris advected over the region from storms ongoing in South Texas will act against diurnal destabilization of the boundary layer and the subsequent development of afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Given the developments in convective trends the last few hours, have opted to decrease rain chances across the region by roughly 10-30%. A few isolated showers and storms will still remain possible later today, but it is becoming increasingly likely with time that most will remain dry. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 117 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026 As of midnight, a line of thunderstorms extended from South Texas into the DFW Metroplex. These storms will slowly move towards the east into Wednesday morning with trailing light rain lingering across much of the area east of the I-35 corridor. While there is moderate uncertainty with the evolution of this line, recent short term guidance has started to converge on a solution resolving an MCV which lingers over portions of East and Northeast Texas until midday Wednesday. This potential MCV will have significant implications on thunderstorm potential Wednesday afternoon and evening. The most likely scenario is locations along and east of the I-35 corridor remain under cloud cover associated with this mesoscale upper-level disturbance. Light rain will meander around this region with very isolated (10-20% chance) non- severe thunderstorms possible by the PM hours. Further west (west of the I-35 corridor), subsidence associated with the MCV circulation will greatly inhibit storm chances. While a stray shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out (10-15% chance), probabilities have substantially decreased from the prior forecast. Widespread cloud cover and remnants of the cold pool generated from the Tuesday night storms will help keep highs below average; generally in the low 80s. By Wednesday night, short term guidance is generally aligned in low shower and thunderstorm coverage across portions of North and Central Texas (10-30% chance). The greatest potential will be along and north of the US-380 corridor where synoptic scale forcing for ascent will persist in association with the primary upper-level vort max as it slowly drifts from the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. Though severe thunderstorms are not expected, there will be the potential for localized flash flooding during this time period. PWAT values in the 1.5" to 2.0" range in addition to very slow storm motions (generally 10 mph or less) could realize a localized flash flooding threat despite isolated storm coverage. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 117 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026 ...Thursday... By Thursday, the upper-level system responsible for Tuesday and Wednesday thunderstorms will still likely remain over portions of the South Great Plains. Uncertainty is too high to discuss specifics on storm timing and location due to the absence of any surface fronts and substantial variance between guidance. However, isolated showers and thunderstorms (20-40% chance) will be possible during the afternoon and evening hours with the greatest chances north of I-20 and east of I-35 where forcing for ascent and low-level moisture should be greatest. Further west, shortwave ridging is expected to build into much of the southern High Plains. This pattern will generally promote warmer temperatures above the ABL in addition to weak synoptic scale subsidence, thus greatly reducing the potential for any precipitation. This will be most notable along and west of the US-281 corridor where current rain chances are around or below 20%. With continued high PWATs and a moderately unstable airmass in place (SBCAPE ranging from 1500-2500 J/kg), any thunderstorm that is able to develop will potentially be on the stronger side, bringing the risk for gusty winds, small hail, localized flash flooding and/or frequent lightning. ...Friday and Saturday... By the start of the upcoming weekend, ridging aloft will build more fully into the region bringing a relative lull in rain chances (generally less than 30%). The advection of higher heights aloft in conjunction with stronger diurnal heating due to reduced cloud cover from subsidence in the mid and upper-levels will result in a brief period of near or slightly above normal temperatures (highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s). Abundant boundary layer moisture will help mitigate the potential for higher temperatures during the afternoon and evening hours Friday and Saturday. Embedded in the upper-level ridging pattern, subtle shortwave disturbances will be embedded in the flow aloft generally traversing from the southern High Plains, into Oklahoma/Kansas, and then down into the southern Mississippi River Valley. Localized forcing for ascent with these small disturbances during peak ABL destabilization in the afternoon and evening hours may be sufficient for a stray shower or thunderstorm along or north of the I-20 corridor. The greatest chances for storms during this time frame will be near the Red River. In this area, storms in Oklahoma may develop upscale into a complex in which case the corresponding cold pool may allow convection to propagate into far North Texas in what would otherwise be an unfavorable environment for thunderstorms. Storm evolution should be strongly influenced by residual cold pools and outflow boundaries from convection Thursday into Thursday night. As such, confidence in storm potential, coverage, timing, etc. will remain low during this timeframe likely until Thursday. ...Sunday and Next Week... By the end of the upcoming weekend and into next work week, upper level ridging will be shunted towards the east into the Deep South as weak troughing and southwesterly flow aloft build in from the west. At the surface, southerly winds will continue to reinforce abundant boundary layer moisture keeping a humid and unstable airmass across the region. This pattern will again favor daily rain and thunderstorm chances, though there is no confidence in exact coverage, location and timing as of now. While shear looks to be very weak in the absence of any strong upper-level disturbances, diurnally driven surface based instability will again bring the potential for a few strong thunderstorms with the risk of gusty winds, small hail, isolated flash flooding and/or frequent lightning. Increased low-level moisture and cloud cover from convection in the region will likely keep high temperatures near or slightly below average (in the 80s). && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026 The primary source of uncertainty this forecast period will be wind direction. With winds AOB 06 kts and a slight preference in short term guidance to resolve south flow, have opted to prevail this in the TAFs. However, wind directions will be somewhat erratic today with periods of light northerly winds (5 knots) occurring intermittently. Confidence in fuel-alternate MVFR cigs this morning has also decreased, so opted to TEMPO these cigs in while prevailing 2-3kft cigs at Metroplex TAF sites. Confidence in low cigs remains high enough at KACT to prevail BKN013 for this TAF issuance. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 504 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Spotter activation is not likely through tomorrow, but any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Services are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 69 86 71 / 40 20 30 20 Waco 81 68 84 70 / 30 10 20 10 Paris 78 67 82 67 / 60 30 50 40 Denton 81 67 84 68 / 40 20 30 20 McKinney 80 68 84 69 / 50 20 40 20 Dallas 82 69 87 71 / 50 20 30 20 Terrell 80 68 85 68 / 60 20 40 20 Corsicana 82 70 87 71 / 50 20 30 10 Temple 82 69 86 71 / 20 10 20 0 Mineral Wells 82 65 85 66 / 20 20 20 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...Darrah LONG TERM....Darrah AVIATION...Darrah
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 82 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:29 UTC.
6 flash flood, 5 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A public official reported on social media about the road closure of Governors Blvd between FM 740 and Trophy Club Dr. There were also some impassable areas on Zurek Ln in the same neighborhood.
Emergency Manager reported water on the roads at Melody Ln and Pecan Ln south of Forney. Water was reaching some of the homes.
Public reported water on the roads near State Highway 78 and 160 just west of Leonard.
Report from mPING. Street and road flooding, street and road closed, or vehicles stranded.
Emergency Manager reported the closure of Sachse Rd at Country Club Rd due to high water.
Emergency manager reported that flash flooding was impacting Highway 121 and adjacent roads in Trenton.
Report of 1 inch hail from mPING.
A Facebook photo showed half dollar size hail fell near Lake Weatherford.
Report of 1.25 inch hail from mPING.
Broadcast media reported 1 inch hail in Willow Park.
A Facebook post reported quarter to half dollar size hail off Hwy 281 north of Stephenville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1335396, 1335394, 1335400, 1335398, 1335402, 1335405, 1334958, 1334959, 1334960, 1334961, 1334962.