What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 19, 6:11 AM CST, 5 hours 1 minute earlier. Its key messages:
- Showers and thunderstorms are expected along a cold front on Tuesday across much of North and Central TX. Some of these storms could be severe with damaging winds and large hail.
- Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will continue Wednesday into the weekend. Locally heavy rain will be possible but the severe weather threat appears low.
Area forecast discussion, May 19, 6:11 AM CST, 5 hours 1 minute before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
711 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms are expected along a cold front on
Tuesday across much of North and Central TX. Some of these
storms could be severe with damaging winds and large hail.
- Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will continue
Wednesday into the weekend. Locally heavy rain will be possible
but the severe weather threat appears low.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
We are still expecting thunderstorms to develop across most of
North and Central Texas later today, however an overnight MCS well
to our south has shifted things up a bit. Since we are on the far
northern periphery of the MCS, most of the area along/east of I-35
is currently under a localized area of mid-and upper-level
subsidence. This is helping keep a lid on any early-morning pre-
frontal deep convective attempts in North Texas that the evening
guidance was suggesting. The 12Z FWD RAOB sounding indicates a
strong cap residing over the region that should hold for the next
few hours as well. As the MCSs cirrus canopy moves east, it will
open the door for thunderstorm development over the course of the
day today.
We're watching a cold front and/or strong outflow boundary that is
currently in southern Oklahoma and Western North Texas that will
serve as the main trigger mechanism for thunderstorms today. It
should be more than sufficient to overcome any inhibition,
particularly as we head into the afternoon. The overall forecast
trends this afternoon and severe threats haven't changed much,
but small-scale boundary interactions will cause some areas to be
relatively precip-free for most of the day, despite widespread
storms across other portions of the forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Satellite imagery shows a rapid expansion of low clouds over the
last 2 hours across Central and North Texas indicative of strong
low level warm moist advection. A 40-50 kt low level jet is
indicated on both the FWS and GRK VAD wind profiles which will
continue to transport Gulf moisture northward into the region
overnight while resulting in intermittent strong wind gusts.
Farther to our north, a cold front is sagging south through
Oklahoma with a line of showers and thunderstorms draped across
the northwest part of the state. This front will continue to move
south toward the Red River by sunrise and will serve as a focus
for showers and thunderstorms across North Texas later in the day.
Continued warm advection ahead of the front should result in a few
scattered showers beneath a modest capping inversion through the
early morning hours, but convection should become more numerous
by late morning and early afternoon as the front approaches the
I-20 corridor. The high resolution guidance has a pretty good
handle on the frontal boundary, but there are some differences in
convective evolution through midday. As the low level jet begins
to veer and pull off to the northeast, some of the guidance takes
the bulk of the stronger storms through the Arklatex, with a
weaker line extending westward along the I-20 corridor. This seems
plausible given that we'll have some capping and time of day would
result in a minimum in surface based instability across the
Metroplex. Additional strong storms would then be likely to
develop a little later in the day farther to the south and west
along the frontal boundary when stronger heating results in more
instability. The rest of the guidance just brings a line of
showers and storms all the way through North Texas with no general
weakening trend through midday and further intensification south
of I-20 into the afternoon.
While it's difficult to pin down the exact scenario that will play
out, given the current radar trends to the north, strength of the
low level jet and availability of 3000+J/kg of MUCAPE, we'll lean
toward this line of storms maintaining some intensity through the
early morning hours as it crosses the Red River and approaches
I-20 through midday. Further intensification of this line is
expected by afternoon as very strong instability will be present
along with additional support from a weak embedded shortwave
spreading out of Mexico. There will be a threat for severe wind
gusts and large hail with any of the storms today. The tornado
threat is very low compared to our last few severe weather events.
High temperatures will likely be held in check with extensive
cloud cover and scattered convection. We'll keep highs in the
low/mid 80s Tuesday afternoon.
The front and the line of storms should push into Central TX by
late in the day with the frontal boundary becoming stalled out
Tuesday night. There will be an increasing potential for heavy
rainfall, mainly in Central Texas with any lingering activity
Tuesday night.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
With the remnant frontal boundary still draped across Central
Texas on Wednesday, we'll see scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue, although the best coverage will be to our south and east
through the afternoon. Most areas in North Texas will remain dry
with PoPs only around 20%. By Wednesday night into Thursday, an
upstream shortwave will spread into West Texas with height falls
overspreading the Southern Plains. A moisture rich atmosphere
will be in place across North Texas with PWs in the 1.7-1.9"
range. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across West Texas Wednesday night and across all of North
and Central TX on Thursday. This will likely be the day we see the
heaviest rainfall and potential for flash flooding. At this time,
the current forecast has most areas picking up 1 to 3 inches of
rain, but some of our southern and southeastern counties may
receive as much as 5 inches of rain through the end of the week.
With the upper pattern continuing to feature slow moving upper
disturbances within an area of broad forcing for ascent and PW
values just shy of 2 inches, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will remain in the forecast through the end of the week and into
the weekend. The overall severe weather threat appears to be
pretty low during this time, but the threat for efficient rainfall
producing storms and associated flooding will increase by Thursday
into the weekend.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 712 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
An active weather day is expected to unfold over the course of
the day today. An overnight MCS well to our south has helped bring
in a localized area of mid/upper-level descent which will squash
storm chances for the next several hours. Despite this, a few
light rain showers will continue through the morning but we have
opted not to include VCSH into the TAFs for simplicity's sake to
not drown out the main forecast message below.
We are expecting thunderstorms to ignite along a cold front and/or
strong outflow boundary that is currently moving through southern
Oklahoma/Western North Texas. It should start to encroach on D10
in the mid-to-late morning and slowly move south over the course
of the afternoon. Given the anticipated slow-down of the front
INVOF D10 and the influence of the MCS to our south, thunderstorm
timing today is quite uncertain. We nudged the timing back an hour
compared to our earlier forecasts, but we will have to continue
to assess timing throughout the morning. We generally expect most
of the storms to move south/east of D10 by the mid to late
afternoon. The MCS will have a bigger impact on ACT/Central Texas,
where we moved back thunderstorms several hours compared to our
earlier forecasts.
There is potential for another round of storms tonight, mainly for
Central Texas/ACT, but we do not have enough confidence at this
time to include overnight thunder in the TAF at this time.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Limited spotter activation may be requested on Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 64 80 67 / 90 50 20 50
Waco 84 66 81 68 / 90 90 20 50
Paris 81 63 77 66 / 90 40 30 40
Denton 80 62 78 65 / 90 40 20 50
McKinney 81 63 81 66 / 90 40 20 50
Dallas 82 65 80 68 / 90 50 20 50
Terrell 82 64 81 66 / 90 60 20 50
Corsicana 86 65 80 70 / 90 80 30 50
Temple 86 66 80 69 / 80 90 20 60
Mineral Wells 83 62 78 64 / 90 50 20 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
SHORT TERM...Dunn/Bonnette
LONG TERM....Dunn
AVIATION...Bonnette
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 19, 8:20 AM CST, 2 hours 52 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
920 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
TXZ122-123-191445-
Van Zandt TX-Rains TX-
920 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Van
Zandt and southeastern Rains Counties through 945 AM CDT...
At 920 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Grand Saline, or 12 miles west of Mineola, moving north at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central Van
Zandt and southeastern Rains Counties, including the following
locations... Willow Springs.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
If on or near Lake Fork, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
&&
LAT...LON 3262 9565 3262 9575 3285 9579 3284 9565
3272 9564 3271 9562 3271 9561 3270 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 1420Z 188DEG 20KT 3269 9569
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH
DarrahSpecial weather statement, May 19, 8:41 AM CST, 2 hours 31 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
941 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
TXZ092-093-191515-
Grayson TX-Cooke TX-
941 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Cooke
and northern Grayson Counties through 1015 AM CDT...
At 939 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pottsboro, or 15 miles northwest of Sherman, moving northeast at 20
mph.
HAZARD...Pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Pottsboro, southeastern Lake Texoma, Lake Texoma, and Eisenhower
State Park around 945 AM CDT.
Denison around 950 AM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Dixie, Preston,
Gordonville, Sandusky, Dexter, Sadler, Sherwood Shores, and Locust.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
If on or near Lake Texoma, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
&&
LAT...LON 3396 9691 3387 9688 3385 9685 3387 9683
3387 9680 3382 9676 3384 9669 3392 9667
3390 9659 3384 9662 3382 9653 3377 9650
3378 9644 3376 9641 3366 9688 3386 9701
3389 9698 3395 9700 3396 9698 3394 9697
TIME...MOT...LOC 1439Z 242DEG 16KT 3382 9672
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH
DarrahSpecial weather statement, May 19, 8:41 AM CST, 2 hours 31 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
941 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
TXZ092-093-191515-
Grayson TX-Cooke TX-
941 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Cooke
and northern Grayson Counties through 1015 AM CDT...
At 941 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pottsboro, or 15 miles north of Sherman, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Pottsboro, southeastern Lake Texoma, Lake Texoma, and Eisenhower
State Park around 945 AM CDT.
Denison around 950 AM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Dixie, Preston,
Gordonville, Sandusky, Dexter, Sadler, Sherwood Shores, and Locust.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
If on or near Lake Texoma, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
&&
LAT...LON 3396 9691 3387 9688 3385 9685 3387 9683
3387 9680 3382 9676 3384 9669 3392 9667
3390 9659 3384 9662 3382 9653 3377 9650
3378 9644 3376 9641 3366 9688 3386 9701
3389 9698 3395 9700 3396 9698 3394 9697
TIME...MOT...LOC 1441Z 242DEG 16KT 3382 9671
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH
DarrahSpecial weather statement, May 19, 10:48 AM CST, 24 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1148 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
TXZ092-102-103-191715-
Denton TX-Cooke TX-Wise TX-
1148 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Wise,
northwestern Denton and southwestern Cooke Counties through 1215 PM
CDT...
At 1148 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Lake Muenster to 12 miles south of Muenster to
8 miles northeast of Decatur. Movement was east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Muenster and Lake Muenster around 1155 AM CDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include Greenwood, Rosston,
Bolivar, Era, Slidell, Leo, Lois, Hood, and Myra.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3378 9719 3376 9719 3375 9718 3373 9717
3355 9718 3331 9725 3331 9753 3345 9747
3370 9748 3379 9720
TIME...MOT...LOC 1648Z 253DEG 19KT 3365 9741 3348 9740 3330 9748
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
Darrah