A cold front pushed south into west Texas and southeast New Mexico on the 19th. This front stalled in the Trans-Pecos area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A cold front pushed south into west Texas and southeast New Mexico on the 19th. This front stalled in the Trans-Pecos area. A few thunderstorms developed south of this front and east of a dryline in the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. One thunderstorm produced large hail in Big Lake while another produced flash flooding in Terrell County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 19, 2:23 PM CST, 1 hour 37 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 323 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 322 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Strong to severe storms remain possible late this afternoon and evening, mainly from the southern Permian Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos. Large hail (up to 2 inches or greater), damaging winds (up to 70 mph), and frequent lightning will accompany the most intense storms that develop. - Strong to severe storms are expected once again on Wednesday. Large hail and damaging winds will be threats as well as localized flash flooding. - Shower and storm chances continue into the weekend as additional disturbances move overhead. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Surface observations indicate that the cold front extends from just east of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains to the Upper Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin as of 2 PM CDT this afternoon. A cooler and drier airmass remains in place over the rest of the forecast area behind the cold front, and we ended up lowering afternoon high temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s behind this boundary. SPC mesoscale analysis shows a corridor of moderate instability with CAPE values of 1500-3000 J/KG along and just of this boundary over the southern Permian Basin and into the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Big Bend where temperatures are in the upper 80s to mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s. A shortwave impulse embedded within southwesterly flow aloft will move across west Texas this afternoon and we expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop along the southern Basin and Lower Trans Pecos near the boundary and to the east of the trailing dryline late this afternoon into this evening. The moderate instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and increasing effective bulk shear will support organized storm growth and supercell development over these locations. Large hail up to 2"+ in diameter and damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe modes with any supercell storms that develop. The tornado threat will be lower, but still cannot be ruled out with supercells that develop in the vicinity of the front. Heavy rainfall may also lead to localized flash flooding. The severe threat should by mid to late evening as storms move east of our region. Cooler temperatures return tonight with lows in the 50s over parts of southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin, as well as higher terrain areas. Lows will be in the 60s to near 70 over our central and southern zones. Another active day is expected Wednesday as shortwave impulses continue to translate over the forecast area within the southwesterly flow aloft. The surface boundary will remain oriented from the southeast New Mexico Plains to the Trans Pecos. Shower/storm coverage will increase over much of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, with the greatest coverage (50-70%) over the Permian Basin, the Trans Pecos, and Big Bend. Instability and shear parameters will once again favor organized convection with a few storms capable of becoming severe with large hail and damaging winds. The greatest instability will be over the Permian Basin into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend where large hail over golfball size (potentially 2"+) will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. The severe threat may shift to our east by late Wednesday evening but a few showers and storms may persist into Thursday night under the southwesterly flow aloft. Localized flash flooding will be possible with storms that have intense rainfall rates. Highs Wednesday afternoon remain below normal with readings in the 70s and 80s over much of the region, except 90s along the Rio Grande. Lows Wednesday night range in the 50s and 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 By Friday, the dryline looks to set up somewhere along our far eastern counties or just to the east of our forecast area. Meanwhile, guidance shows an upper-level low located over Baja, leaving the region under southwest flow aloft. This may allow for an isolated shower/storm or two to develop, but the best chances are currently expected to be east of our forecast area. Chances (10-30%) of showers and storms increase Friday evening with the retreating dryline. Long-range guidance keeps us under a similar pattern through the weekend/early next week (with the help of upslope flow), yielding shower and storm chances each day in the extended. At this time, there is uncertainty in rainfall totals, which will depend on where remnant boundaries set up and the track of the aforementioned upper-level low. Otherwise, afternoon highs are forecast to be in the 80s (90s in many spots on Friday) for most each day. Overnight lows bottom out into the 50s and 60s each night. Greening && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front will extend from far southeast New Mexico and through the Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin this afternoon. Scattered TSRA are expected to develop over the eastern and southern Permian Basin and portions of the Trans Pecos along this boundary this afternoon into this evening. We maintained a PROB30 mention of TSRA at KFST late this afternoon. Northerly to northeasterly winds of 10-20 knots with occasional higher gusts will gradually turn easterly late this afternoon into this evening. VFR generally remains prevalent through this afternoon and evening. There is potential for MVFR ceilings to develop late tonight into Wednesday morning, especially over the Permian Basin near KMAF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 59 77 60 81 / 10 40 60 40 Carlsbad 61 83 59 88 / 10 30 30 20 Dryden 66 84 64 85 / 30 40 80 30 Fort Stockton 63 85 61 87 / 10 60 60 30 Guadalupe Pass 60 79 58 81 / 10 20 20 10 Hobbs 55 75 55 82 / 10 40 40 30 Marfa 53 86 51 82 / 0 20 40 20 Midland Intl Airport 60 77 60 82 / 10 50 60 30 Odessa 61 78 61 82 / 10 50 60 30 Wink 61 82 60 86 / 10 40 50 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...21
The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 94 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:58 UTC.
1 hail, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A member of the public sent a picture of approximately quarter-sized hail in Big Lake. The total time of occurrence is partially estimated from radar.
Emergency manager relayed footage from the Terrell County Sheriffs Office showing flash flooding about 10 miles west of Sanderson on Highway 90, along with accumulated dime-sized hail. The time of occurrence is estimated from radar, and no damage was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1327163, 1327164.