Lack of rainfall, top five-ten heat, and a flash drought situation with extremely low top-soil moisture levels allowed Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) Drought conditions to worsen as February approached March. Exceptional (D4) Drought developed on the 17th across the Brush Country - just the fourth small area in the nation at the time (others were in the Texas Big Bend, central Colorado, and…
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
Lack of rainfall, top five-ten heat, and a flash drought situation with extremely low top-soil moisture levels allowed Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) Drought conditions to worsen as February approached March. Exceptional (D4) Drought developed on the 17th across the Brush Country - just the fourth small area in the nation at the time (others were in the Texas Big Bend, central Colorado, and northeast Arkansas). By month's end, the Texas Agrilife Crop and Weather report described soil moisture conditions as extremely poor, with range and pasture forages in poor condition and in some cases, cattle ranchers were liquidating herds.
Loss/impact reports will be provided for the end of March StormData, when region-wide seasonal drought conditions peaked.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 16, 10:33 PM CST, 1 hour 27 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1033 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1029 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 - Summer-like high temperatures and rain-free conditions are expected to continue. - Patchy fog is possible tonight. - Potential weekend cold front may drop temperatures slightly. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1029 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 The subtropical ridge generally holds through the remainder of the week, maintaining above normal temperatures and dry weather through Friday. In fact, this week looks very similar to last week. The next system aloft swings into the Southern Plains Friday night into Saturday, as a frontal boundary at the surface drops south through Deep South Texas, bringing slightly cooler temperatures but little to no chance of rain. The NBM cooks the upper to mid valley on Thursday and Friday into the mid 90s and brings near normal highs Sunday into Monday behind the front, with near to below normal lows Monday and Tuesday morning. Unfortunately, a similar week to last week, on top of abundant cured fuels and ongoing moderate to extreme drought conditions will drive worsening drought conditions into the peak of the dormant fire weather season. Expect RH values generally below 25-35 percent across all or portions of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Starr, and Hidalgo counties every afternoon, dropping another 5-10 percent further Saturday through Monday. Gusty afternoon winds are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly along the coast and into the mid valley, where RH values are higher. Extreme caution should be urged when working near any open flames or sparks into late February. Patchy fog is possible again overnight tonight, mainly along the coastal counties and northern ranchlands. An inviting beach and beautiful beach weather will also pose an increased threat of life-threatening rip currents mid to late week, and especially over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1029 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through the TAF period, with patchy fog overnight dropping visibility to MVFR or IFR where it develops. Southeasterly winds become breezy by late Tuesday morning and persist into Tuesday evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1029 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Southeasterly winds continue through the end of the week with afternoon gusts driving SCEC to borderline SCA conditions across the bay and offshore waters. A cold front arrives on Saturday with northerly winds and elevated seas into Monday. Southerly winds return next Tuesday with improving marine conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 81 62 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 83 57 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 87 63 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 87 60 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 65 75 67 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 60 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...56-Hallman LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...56-Hallman
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) Drought conditions edged into northwest Willacy County on February 17th, and would expand slightly to include all of far western Willacy on the 24th. A very tiny sliver of Extreme (D3) conditions nudged along the county line with Hidalgo and Kenedy County by the 24th.
Exceptional (D4) Drought conditions arrived in west-central Brooks County on the 17th, continuing through the end of the month, while Extreme (D3) conditions prevailed across all but the southeast sliver, before they, too, moved to D3 on the 24th. The introduction of D4, for the first time in five years for the Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains, was due to the combination of prolonged rain-free conditions, along with heat and low to very low humidity on many days.
Exceptional (D4) Drought conditions arrived in east-central and parts of southern Jim Hogg County on the 17th, continuing through the end of the month, while Extreme (D3) conditions prevailed elsewhere. The introduction of D4, for the first time in five years for the Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains, was due to the combination of prolonged rain-free conditions, along with heat and low to very low humidity on many days.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, February 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1321035, 1321037, 1321039.