Tornado and Flash Flood in Texas, April 4, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
624 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

 - Widespread and much needed rains will overspread the region
   through the day Saturday with the passage of a cold front.

 - The severe threat appears to remain minimal with this event,
   ending during the late afternoon/early evening.

 - Cooler and drier air will filter southeast into the region in
   wake of the front Saturday/Saturday night, with near to below
   normal temperatures expected Easter Sunday into the start of
   the new work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

The early morning mosaic radar imagery indicates a developing MCS
extending from the Ozarks SW into Ern and Srn OK across the mid
and upper Red River Valley of NW TX. This convection has developed
along and just behind a cold front, which continues to steadily
march SE through these areas, and will approach the far NW zones
by 12Z Saturday. The short term progs continue to suggest strong
moisture convergence that will continue overnight along the front,
aided by persistent large scale forcing associated with
diffluence along the base of deep upper troughing observed from
the Dakotas S through the Cntrl Plains into Wrn OK and the TX
Panhandle. The latest short term progs remain mostly consistent
with their earlier runs, with the potential for mostly scattered
-SHRA developing ahead of this MCS along the broad theta-e axis
extending from much of N and NE TX into SW and Wrn AR, with
deeper convection along and just behind the front eventually
moving into areas NW of the I-30 corridor of NE TX/SW AR between
09-12Z. MLCapes will continue to gradually diminish overnight,
thus minimizing the severe potential as these storms approach the
NW zones, but PW's of 1.5-1.6 inches, continued frontal
convergence as well as strong upward ascent within the zone of
diffluence along the base of the trough will yield the potential
for heavy rainfall across these areas prior to daybreak, and
continuing through the remainder of the morning into at least the
early afternoon hours. Overall shear ahead of the front remains
progged to gradually weaken through the afternoon, although some
instability recovery will be possible across portions of Deep E
TX into NCntrl LA which may help to reinvigorate the storms along
the front. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms
can not be ruled out, with locally gusty winds the main threat.
However, widespread wetting rains should generally range from
1-2+ inches across the area (with the greater totals NW of I-30),
although some progs are now suggesting lower amounts closer to a
half inch across portions of N LA as the convection organization
may weaken through the day.

High temperatures will likely be observed this morning ahead of
the front across NE TX/SE OK/SW AR, with temps falling with the
fropa and the rain cooled air inhibiting much of a recovery even
after the rains diminish during the afternoon. The convection
along the front should persist this evening over Deep E TX/NCntrl
LA, although additional -SHRA redevelopment may occur post-frontal
tonight farther N across more of Lower E TX into far Nrn LA closer
to the attendant H850 trough. This -SHRA redevelopment should
gradually diminish from N to S with the H850 trough passage, with
greater cold advection occurring overnight where the lower cigs are
able to clear especially N of I-20. Did re-add slight chance pops
across the far Srn zones Sunday (Easter) morning until the H850 trough
clears the region to the S, with near to below normal temps with
low and comfortable RH's expected areawide despite the presence of
elevated cigs traversing the base and beneath the upper trough as
it slides E of the MS Valley into the OH Valley and the Mid-
Atlantic region.

Sfc ridging remains progged to be centered over Ern OK/NCntrl AR
by Monday morning, with decoupling winds and thinning elevated
cigs resulting in good radiational cooling such that temps will
fall into the 40s over much of the region. Another beautiful day
will return Monday afternoon with near to slightly below normal
temps again expected, with secondary sfc ridging expected to backdoor
SW into the region by Tuesday morning, reinforcing the cool and
dry air mass that will be in place. A slow moderating trend will
commence by midweek as SErly bndry lyr winds return on the
backside of the retreating sfc ridge, although low level moisture
return should be delayed until Thursday. The upper flow should
also gradually transition to SW by this time, with weak
perturbations and increasing low level moisture resulting in the
return of at least isolated convection Thursday afternoon over E
TX/WCntrl LA. It should be noted that the 00Z GFS appears out to
lunch in regards to much more aggressive low level moisture return
and resultant convection development Tuesday night/Wednesday with
a weak shortwave passage over the area, having done a complete 180
from earlier model runs and earlier consensus with the ECMWF. Thus,
the latter model ensemble is preferred, with the potential for more
scattered convection areawide along with much warmer temps by the
end of the forecast period next Friday.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Tempo MVFR ceilings expected ahead of cold front that will move
across the region bringing TSRA conditions and erratic gusty winds
across area terminals from 04/14Z through 04/22Z. South winds 10
to 15 knots ahead of the front to become northwest near 10 knots
behind the front by 05/00Z, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after
05/06Z. Any post-frontal lingering precipitation dissipate and
MVFR ceilings to improve to VFR by the end of the TAF period at
05/12Z. /05/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Spotter activation may be needed Saturday for isolated strong to
severe storms that may develop across portions of Deep East Texas,
North-central Louisiana, and Southern Arkansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  52  70  47 / 100  50   0   0
MLU  82  54  70  48 / 100  90  10   0
DEQ  67  42  71  40 / 100   0   0   0
TXK  71  47  71  46 / 100  20   0   0
ELD  75  49  70  43 / 100  50   0   0
TYR  70  49  70  47 / 100  20   0   0
GGG  74  49  70  47 / 100  30   0   0
LFK  78  56  70  49 / 100  60  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
519 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

OKZ077-041100-
McCurtain OK-
519 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MCCURTAIN
COUNTY UNTIL 6 AM CDT...

At 519 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from Pickens to 5 miles north of Battiest to
7 miles northwest of Smithville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Bethel, Sherwood, Mount Herman, Battiest, Smithville, Pickens,
  Watson and Plunketville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3440 9446 3425 9505 3451 9505 3451 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 1014Z 243DEG 27KT 3439 9503 3447 9489 3450 9469

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

09

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1000 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

TXZ096-108>110-041545-
Franklin TX-Titus TX-Red River TX-Camp TX-
1000 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN TITUS...
NORTHWESTERN CAMP...SOUTHWESTERN RED RIVER AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES
UNTIL 1045 AM CDT...

At 1000 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from over Hagansport to 7 miles north of
Pleasant Grove, or extending from over Hagansport to 8 miles
northwest of Winnsboro, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Mount Pleasant, Hagansport, Mount Vernon, Purley, Wilkerson,
  Winfield, Talco, Miller's Cove, Rocky Mound, Hopewell, Monticello,
  Johntown, Harvard, Harts Bluff and Cypress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 9531 3349 9492 3303 9496 3301 9515
      3299 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 1459Z 245DEG 22KT 3333 9526 3316 9532 3301 9540

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

09