Northwest PA resided in the warm and relatively-moist sector during the late morning through early evening of the 7th. Simultaneously, a surface low moved generally eastward from the Straits of Mackinac to near northern Georgian Bay as the trailing cold front moved eastward from the Lake Michigan region to Lake Huron, southeastern Lower MI, far-northwest OH, and northeastern IN.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CLE wrote it up.
Northwest PA resided in the warm and relatively-moist sector during the late morning through early evening of the 7th. Simultaneously, a surface low moved generally eastward from the Straits of Mackinac to near northern Georgian Bay as the trailing cold front moved eastward from the Lake Michigan region to Lake Huron, southeastern Lower MI, far-northwest OH, and northeastern IN. Within the warm sector, scattered multicell thunderstorms developed along an eastward-moving surface trough axis and persisted generally east-northeastward across northwest PA during the early through mid-afternoon hours of the 7th. The storms' ambient environment exhibited weak to moderate MUCAPE and moderate to strong effective bulk shear. One of the multicell thunderstorms generated isolated straight-line wind damage on the east side of Harmonsburg in Crawford County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Cleveland, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 7, 1:45 PM EST, 6 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 145 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A tornado watch has been issued for Stark, Mahoning, Trumbull, and Ashtabula Counties in Ohio, and for Erie and Crawford Counties in Pennsylvania. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold front late this morning and afternoon. Some storms could become strong to severe, particularly along and east of the I-71 corridor between Noon and 5 PM. 2) The next period of unsettled weather is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rain and perhaps a few stronger thunderstorms. 3) A clipper system will move east through the Upper Great Lakes on Friday which could bring a rain/snow mix to the local area. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A tornado watch has been issued for Stark, Mahoning, Trumbull, and Ashtabula Counties in Ohio, and for Erie and Crawford Counties in Pennsylvania. Sufficient MLCAPE has developed allowing storms to strengthen. With a very favorable wind field in place, severe thunderstorms will be possible through about 20Z or so in the above counties. Previous Discussion... The latest water vapor imagery reveals a strong mid- level shortwave ejecting northeast into the Midwest early this morning, with ongoing pre-frontal convection located across portions of Missouri and Illinois. The latest guidance suggests this shortwave will strengthen further through this morning, resulting in ~60 knots of 700 mb SW flow across the area by early this afternoon. There remains some uncertainty on the evolution of this convection as it enters Ohio by around mid- morning, though do anticipate redevelopment as it encounters a more favorable environment near the I-71 corridor by late morning/early afternoon. Probabilities for instability parameters from both the REFS/HREF (such as SBCAPE > 1000 J/kg) are considerably higher than previous model runs, particularly east of the I-71 corridor. In addition, low-level hodographs also appear more favorable not only in the 0-1 km layer as they did in last night's guidance, but now also up to 3 km which tends to suggest a greater tornado potential in any stronger storms, especially those with a north to south orientation given the SW shear vectors. The latest SPC SWODY1 categorical risk remains unchanged, though a 5% "hatched" tornado area has been introduced with this morning's update. Do think the local risk for any significant tornadoes (EF2+) is very low as the expected linear storm mode would suggest more of an transient, embedded tornado and damaging wind threat. However, this could change if storm mode begins as discrete (stand alone from other storms) and will be monitored. The timing window and location for strong to severe storms remains relatively unchanged from previous forecasts - generally along and east of the I-71 corridor between Noon and 5 PM as storms move west to east through the area. KEY MESSAGE 2... Guidance continues to suggest a potent upper-level trough developing across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday. At the surface, a low pressure system will slide northeast through the Midwest and Eastern Great Lakes, extending a strong cold front across the area Wednesday night and ushering in a much colder air mass into the region. Probabilities remain medium to high (50 to 70%) for much of the area to see at least 1 inch of rainfall Tuesday night through Wednesday as periods of moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms are appearing more likely. Will continue to monitor trends and potential impacts from this system over the next several days. Above average temperatures mainly in the 60s to lower 70s will persist into Wednesday (with the brief exception of Sunday with highs in the 50s), falling into the upper 30s to low 40s behind a cold front on Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 3... The latest guidance indicates a clipper system will move east through the Upper Great Lakes on Friday into Saturday which could bring a rain/snow mix to the local area and gusty winds. After brief high pressure on Saturday, another system may quickly develop towards the west Saturday night into Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/... A broken line of storms across parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania (mainly east of I-71) will continue for the next few hours, exiting the area by 20-21Z. An area of trailing stratiform rain will follow for a few more hours. Brief, isolated gusts up to 30-40 knots and IFR visibilities are possible A short break in precipitation is expected before light rain develops along a southeastward moving cold front late this evening into early tonight. Areawide MVFR ceilings are expected immediately behind the front and likely lasting through the night. A few patches of IFR will be possible. Cloud cover clears up by mid-morning Sunday, giving way to clear skies. Winds will be southerly southwesterly today 12 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 ahead of the cold front this afternoon. Winds will shift from the west tonight 8 to 12 knots tonight and the gusts will gradually relax by late evening. Outlook...Non-VFR is likely with showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday followed by a rain/snow mix Wednesday night into Thursday. && .MARINE... There are a couple weather systems in the next several days that may bring some minor marine impacts to Lake Erie. The other ongoing marine weather impact on Lake Erie is the substantial ice coverage that continues to slowly decrease and break up. A cold front will approach Lake Erie this evening from west to east. Ahead of the cold front today, southerly to southwesterly winds will increase 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Behind the front this evening and overnight, winds will become westerly 10 to 15 knots. The stronger wind flow over the lake today and the much warmer temperatures will help further to weaken the ice coverage and also move it around this weekend. Wave heights will be limited by the aforementioned mobile pack ice. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes Sunday into MOnday with a return of southwesterly 10 to 20 knots. The next potential weather system to bring impacts to Lake Erie will the middle of next week. Forecast model guidance indicates the potential for a deepening low pressure system and strong cold front tracking across the eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday through early Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && DISCUSSION...Saunders AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...77
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Cleveland OH 134 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026 LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>013-017>022-027>031-036>038-047- 081845- Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US- Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH- Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH- Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH- Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH- Conneaut OH to Ripley NY- Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM offshoreline to US-Canadian border- Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US- Canadian border- The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border- Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border- Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the- Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the- Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border- Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake- Geauga-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Wyandot-Crawford- Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox- 134 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central Ohio, northeast Ohio and northwest Ohio. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. OHZ014-023-032-033-089-PAZ001>003-081845- Ashtabula Inland-Trumbull-Stark-Mahoning-Ashtabula Lakeshore- Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford- 134 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026 ...TORNADO WATCH 25 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Tornado Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1253 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026
OHZ013-022-023-071830-
Geauga OH-Portage OH-Trumbull OH-
1253 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN TRUMBULL...NORTHERN
PORTAGE AND SOUTHEASTERN GEAUGA COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EST...
At 1253 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Streetsboro, or near Ravenna, moving northeast at 55 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Kent, Streetsboro, Middlefield, Garrettsville, North Bloomfield,
Mantua, West Farmington, Bristolville, Aurora, Parkman, Hiram, and
Sugar Bush Knolls.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4115 8138 4132 8138 4145 8107 4150 8088
4144 8076 4135 8077
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 240DEG 49KT 4125 8131
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
SullivanSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
142 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026
PAZ002-003-071915-
Southern Erie PA-Crawford PA-
142 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ERIE AND
NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EST...
At 141 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Albion, or 12 miles southeast of Conneaut, moving northeast at 50
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Edinboro, Waterford, Albion, Cranesville, Springboro, Platea, Mill
Village, and McKean.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EST for northwestern
Pennsylvania.
&&
LAT...LON 4176 8044 4189 8044 4200 8028 4209 8000
4186 7986
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 245DEG 45KT 4184 8035
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
SullivanThe Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 127 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:52 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees downed along South Norrisville Road in Hayfield Township.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, March 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1315841.