Moderate short period north wind waves, moderate west-northwest swell, and a longer period west-northwest swell combined to produce sneaker waves along the southern Oregon coast.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Moderate short period north wind waves, moderate west-northwest swell, and a longer period west-northwest swell combined to produce sneaker waves along the southern Oregon coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 12, 7:17 PM PST, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
717 PM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
...Updated the Aviation and Marine Sections...
.AVIATION...13/00Z TAFs...With mostly clear VFR skies this evening,
LIFR/IFR fog is expected to develop in the Umpqua Basin (including
Roseburg), the Coquille Valley, Illinois Valley and lower Rogue
Valley (including Grants Pass). VFR is expected across the area by
Friday afternoon, as mid and high clouds increase. VFR ceilings are
expected to persist inland through Friday evening, but a cold front
will reach the coast during the evening with light rain and areas of
MVFR developing.
&&
.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Thursday, February 12, 2026...
Seas will increase later tonight into Friday morning as a low off
the British Columbia coastline sends a swell into our waters. The
swell will peak during Friday into Friday evening at around 13 to 14
feet to 14 to 16 seconds. These conditions will be hazardous to
small craft through Friday. Winds don't pick up significantly as
this front eventually stalls in the outer waters.
A weak low will likely develop in our waters late Saturday night
into Sunday bringing a quick shot of southerly winds. Overall,
unsettled weather will persist this weekend with conditions that are
hazardous to smaller craft. Conditions are likely to improve late
Sunday into Monday. But, seas then build again and are likely to
become high and steep on Tuesday.
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 100 PM PST Thursday, February 12,
2026...An incoming west to northwest long period swell will produce
a moderate risk for sneaker waves along the southern Oregon coast
from late this evening into Friday afternoon.
Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther up beaches than
normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly
knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the cold open
waters of the Pacific Ocean. The waves can also move logs or other
objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 253 PM PST Thu Feb 12 2026/
DISCUSSION...Relatively quiet weather is expected through much of
the weekend. Low pressure is moving off to the east today with a
shortwave ridge expected to follow tonight into early Friday.
Satellite shows plenty of clouds along the terrain this afternoon
and radar shows some isolated light returns across the East Side.
Otherwise, it's fairly quiet weather wise this afternoon. Expect
some fog and low clouds in West Side Valleys tonight with
seasonable temperatures. Another low pressure will dive south late
Friday and dig offshore before settling just off the coast of
northern California Saturday into Sunday. This will push a front
onshore Friday, but as the trough digs, the front will stall along
the coast, not making much inland progress before lifting back
north as a warm front. This will result in mainly dry conditions
for most areas east of the Coastal Range and south of the Umpqua
Divide through Saturday. Precipitation becomes more widespread
late Saturday night into Sunday, heaviest across southern Siskiyou
County. Snow levels will hover around 4500 ft through this
period, so winter impacts will be limited to the mountains with
this first round of precipitation on Sunday. There's some
uncertainty regarding timing of the onset of precipitation, but
there is fairly good agreement on a period of moderate to heavy
snow Sunday into early Monday and we may need to consider some
winter headlines for portions of the Trinity Alps.
The pattern becomes more complex on Monday. Low pressure to the south
continues moving eastward while a deep/cold trough from the north drops
southward. Variability remains on the trajectory of this northerly
trough, and it matters because it will influence just how low snow
levels fall for the Tuesday-Thursday period of next week. The GEFS
keeps the low farther offshore compared to the EC ensembles, which
would maintain higher snow levels. Despite these differences, there is
enough agreement to settle on snow levels lowering to around 2000-2500
ft by Tuesday morning. This will bring increasing and more widespread
winter weather impacts to the region, particularly to the mountains,
East Side and Mt Shasta City region. The base of the trough, and the
bulk of the energy/moisture looks to be directed into California so the
heaviest precipitation looks to remain south of the region, with the
exception being across northern California where upslope flow could
maintain moderate snowfall in the Mt Shasta Region. Precipitation will
continue off/on through much of next week and with snow levels being
this low, winter impacts are possible at many of the region's passes
and possibly even down to West Side valley floors during the
overnight/morning time frame. Given this is still 6-8 days out in the
forecast, we expect details to fluctuate as models come into better
agreement.
Currently, for the period from Monday 4pm through Wednesday 4pm, the
National Blend of Models indicates a high chance (60-95%) for snowfall
of 6 inches for mountains above 4000 feet from the Cascades west and in
the Mount Shasta City and surrounding area. The NBM also supports a
high chance (60-80%) for snowfall amounts of 12 inches or more in
higher elevations (above 4500 ft) in the Cascades and mountains in
western and southern Siskiyou County. There is a medium chance (40-60%)
for up to 12 inches of snow in the Mount Shasta City area during this
period. As the upper trough moves inland Tuesday and Wednesday and snow
levels lower to around 1800-2500 feet, there is a potential for light
to moderate snow down to lower passes. The NBM supports a 40-60% chance
for an inch or more of snow across lower passes on I-5 near Canyon
Mountain and Sexton Summit and a 40-50% chance for an inch or more of
snow at Hayes Hill, Camas Mountain, in the southern Illinois Valley,
for areas in and around Ashland, and for portions of the lower Klamath
River valley in western Siskiyou County. Tuesday night into Wednesday
snow levels may drop down as low as 1000-1500 ft with a 10-20% chance
for light snowfall down to lower valleys such as Medford, Grants Pass
and Canyonville. Stay tuned for updates as the time gets closer.
/BR-y
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday morning for ORZ021-022.
CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday
morning for PZZ350-356.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for PZZ370-376.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 sneakerwave. Local standard time, as filed.
Moderate short period north wind waves, moderate west-northwest swell, and a longer period west-northwest swell combined to produce sneaker waves along the southern Oregon coast.
Moderate short period north wind waves, moderate west-northwest swell, and a longer period west-northwest swell combined to produce sneaker waves along the southern Oregon coast.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, February 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1310898, 1310900.