Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, May 18 to 19, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
445 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 443 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

- There is a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon through Tuesday.

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible for far western
  Oklahoma into western north Texas this afternoon

- Very warm temperatures are expected today with cooler weather
  by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Windy with potential fire weather across our far west and severe
risks for storms are the headlines for today and tonight's period.

The strong low-level jet overnight is not expected to weaken too
much today as we could see wind gusts in the 40-50 mph as we
continue to mix higher into the jet.  A deepening surface low lee of
the Colorado Rockies will maintain a tight pressure gradient across
our area with south winds sustained at 20-25 mph.  As a result our
current Wind Advisory will remain in effect through this evening in
areas generally west and north of the I-44 corridor.  A dryline
approaching our western CWA is expected to advance across the
western one-tier of our counties in Oklahoma and adjacent northern
Texas. As a result the fire danger potential will be increasing Near
Critical to Critical risk west of the dryline due to very low
afternoon RH's expected along with the gusty south winds and hot
temperatures over still dry vegetation.  A Red Flag Warning will be
in effect this afternoon into the evening hours in that one-tier of
counties west of the dryline.

As far as storms, there is a 20-25% probability for convection
firing up along and east of the dryline as forecast soundings
suggest diurnal heating eroding the mid-level cap.  Should any
storms initiate they would be growing in strongly unstable (3000-
5000 J/kg) environment. Although deep-layer shear may be weak this
afternoon in our area but expected to increase tonight along with
the low-level shear as the low-level jet strengthens.  Although the
overall highest severe risk will be highest across the Central
Plains the risk will extend into the Southern Plains with an
Enhanced risk across northern Oklahoma to a Slight risk covering all
but our far southeast CWA.  Should any dryline convection initiate
there is a potential for supercells producing large hail and
damaging wind gusts and a conditional risk for a tornado with that
risk highest closer to the Central Plains in northern Oklahoma.
Storm POPs increase late tonight up to 80% with a cold front coming
down the Central Plains advancing into northern Oklahoma late this
evening pushing across the remainder of our forecast area through
the early morning hours.  Todays severe risks and associated hazards
will be remain unchanged for tonight in the warm sector along and
ahead of the cold front as the shear will be increasing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

By sunrise Tuesday expecting the cold front & storm activity to be
near the I-44 corridor and continue pushing south and east.  Storm
POPs will remain high up 60-90% along the front during the remaining
morning hours but more restricted to southeast Oklahoma in the
afternoon with the cold front eventually exiting our area.  The
severe risk remains along the cold front into Tuesday afternoon with
the hail & wind hazards remaining although the tornado risk will be
very low. High surface pressure starts building in behind the cold
front with lighter north winds advecting much cooler air down
through the Great Plains. Although the coolest air may lag reaching
southeast Oklahoma and our Texas counties for a day, the remainder
of our area will see milder unseasonably cooler temperatures with
highs near 70 degrees with the muggy air restricted to southeast
Oklahoma. Although our area will be post-frontal by Tuesday evening,
the main systems upper trough will remain opened across the western
U.S. through this week with a series of short-wave disturbances
expelled downstream over the Southern Plains each day producing
elevated-based convection. The first of these disturbance will
increase storm chances Tuesday evening and overnight across our
area.  Although the ECMWF is less aggressive with the elevated
instability, the NAM suggests these elevated storms could produce
severe hail & winds overnight.

For Wednesday all of our area will feel milder with highs in the
lower to mid 70s becoming chilly with overnight lows in the 50s to
low 60s and storm chances again increasing overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

An active subtropical jet stream (STJ) with subtle waves lifting
into the Southern Plains will result in a daily chance of
showers/storms through the end the week into next weekend. At this
time, there is no day that has an appreciable risk for severe
weather. Temperatures are expected to be seasonable for late May.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 443 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Showers and storms are expected to move in with a cold front late
tonight into tomorrow. Winds will shift to the north behind this
boundary, as will reduced ceilings through the remainder of the
TAF period. There is the potential for addition storms this
afternoon and evening along western Oklahoma and western north
Texas, but confidence in affecting any TAF site is low at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  61  70  55  71 /  60  40  60  30
Hobart OK         60  72  54  73 /  60  20  50  20
Wichita Falls TX  68  81  58  76 /  20  80  70  40
Gage OK           49  72  46  70 /  20   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     58  69  52  70 /  80  20  30  10
Durant OK         74  84  64  78 /  10  90  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-009-014-
     021-033-034.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>027-
     034>038.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083-084.

&&

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
406 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

OKZ033-036-TXZ083-182130-
Harmon OK-Jackson OK-Hardeman TX-
406 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Jackson, south central Harmon and central Hardeman Counties through
430 PM CDT...

At 406 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Quanah, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Quanah, Eldorado, and Goodlett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3411 9979 3421 9996 3454 9985 3443 9952
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 205DEG 35KT 3424 9984

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MDU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
407 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

OKZ021-022-034-035-182130-
Kiowa OK-Washita OK-Beckham OK-Greer OK-
407 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Washita, northwestern Kiowa, northeastern Greer and southeastern
Beckham Counties through 430 PM CDT...

At 407 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles east of Willow, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sentinel, Willow, and Retrop.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 9937 3505 9952 3536 9937 3518 9908
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 215DEG 33KT 3507 9941

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MDU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
430 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

OKZ021-022-034-035-182200-
Kiowa OK-Washita OK-Beckham OK-Greer OK-
430 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Washita,
northwestern Kiowa, Greer and southeastern Beckham Counties through
500 PM CDT...

At 429 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southwest of Burns Flat to 3 miles
southwest of Mangum. Movement was north at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elk City, Mangum, Granite, Burns Flat, Sentinel, Dill City, Canute,
Lone Wolf, Foss, Willow, Retrop, Brinkman, Hester, and Altus-Lugert
Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3547 9936 3547 9898 3481 9931 3481 9941
      3477 9941 3477 9972
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 199DEG 43KT 3528 9928 3485 9956

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

MDU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
502 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

OKZ033-036-182230-
Harmon OK-Jackson OK-
502 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Jackson
and southeastern Harmon Counties through 530 PM CDT...

At 502 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southwest of Duke to 6 miles west of
Eldorado. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eldorado.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3464 9979 3451 9950 3438 9967 3438 9969
      3439 9971 3441 9973 3442 9975 3444 9977
      3445 9979 3448 9982 3449 9982 3451 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 215DEG 36KT 3459 9966 3448 9976

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

MDU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
507 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

OKZ016-022-182230-
Washita OK-Custer OK-
507 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Washita and central Custer Counties through 530 PM CDT...

At 507 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles west of Clinton, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Clinton, Thomas, Arapaho, Custer City, Butler, Bessie, Foss, Foss
Reservoir, and Stafford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3535 9895 3547 9927 3574 9919 3574 9868
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 211DEG 34KT 3550 9907

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MDU