Wildfire in Oklahoma, March 19 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1214 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

- Record heat expected by the end of this week into the weekend,
  with widespread 90+ degree temperatures likely.

- Fire risk continues, especially near and behind a front on
  Sunday.

- No significant rain chances over the next seven days.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

500 mb heights rarely exceed 5850 meters around here in March. In
fact, OUN has only reached 5850 during 8 March RAOB launches before.
And yet, by later this afternoon the 585 dam line will move into our
area from the west as an extremely anomalous ridge drifts closer. At
the surface, a muted pressure trough will develop in far northwest
Oklahoma and drift southward into southwest Oklahoma/western north
Texas during the afternoon hours. It is within and just south of
this weak trough that temperatures will peak. With that said, it
won't exactly be chilly anywhere, with highs ranging from 85 to 95
across our area. Locally elevated fire weather is possible where
winds become a little bit stronger, likeliest just south of the
surface trough.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

The short term will feature some intensely hot and dry air across
the Southern Plains. On Friday, some model members attempt to bring
another very weak cold front/trough southward from Kansas into the
area. We could see a very similar surface response with
hot/dry/breezy conditions just south of the front where winds veer
more to the southwest. Instead of being in the Red River Valley,
perhaps the I-40 region would be watched for this phenomenon. Fire
weather is not explicitly forecast to be elevated at present, but in
this type of hot/dry/extreme fuel environment, it won't take much of
a breeze to get there.

On Saturday the upper-level ridge will start to break down and 500
mb flow will traverse the Rockies once more. The ensuing lee cyclone
will add a typical southerly breeze - nothing to write home about
under most circumstances, but enough here to bring back surefire
elevated to near-critical fire weather. Additionally, any
westerly/downsloping element to the wind could lead to a significant
run of 100+ degree temperatures across the western part of our area.
This would be the first 100-degree day for many locations (Wichita
Falls and Lawton included, though they may be a bit too far east to
join in the fun). Because of that, and because of the weather
whiplash this week, heat headlines may become necessary despite the
fact that traditional temperature/heat index criteria (designed for
our summer season) won't be met.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Guidance continues to point toward a strong frontal passage
occurring during the day on Sunday. Uncertainty remains extremely
high in the effect that this FROPA will have on high
temperatures, though it is likely that the prefrontal torch will
be among the hottest readings we see all spring. This front is
also of particular concern because of the fire concerns behind it.
Temperatures will be slow to drop in the immediate wake of the
cold front and will remain much warmer- than-average through
Sunday afternoon. Though RH will recover some in the postfrontal
airmass, this will be counteracted by winds that will gust 30-40
mph from the north behind the front. This will lead to locally
critical fire weather primarily west of I-35 Sunday afternoon.

Unfortunately, relief from the heat behind the cold front looks to
be transient. We will drop to only 10 degrees above normal on
Monday. Following this downright Arctic blast, a rapid return to dry
return flow on Tuesday will bring warming temperatures and renewed
wildfire concerns. Then it looks like the mid-to-late part of next
week will be another brief but potentially intense heat wave before
another, stronger cold front eventually scours through. If you're
looking for rain, don't hold your breath - guidance continues to
look bleak.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

A surface trough will move slowly across parts of western and
northern Oklahoma, before stalling by late afternoon/early
evening. North to northwest winds will prevail behind the trough
with south to southwest winds elsewhere.

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with scattered
high clouds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  55  93  57  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         51  94  52  96 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  54  95  57  97 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           48  93  51  96 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     51  90  52  92 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         56  89  60  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for OKZ004>006-009>011-014>016-021-022.

TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06