Damaging Winds in Ohio, May 19, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
324 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for western counties
until 7PM this evening. Some convection has begun to develop
upstream of the area and is expected to move into the
destabilizing area across NW OH. Current temperatures have
surged into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s. The
primary concern remains strong winds. Will need to continue to
monitor conditions further east to determine if any expansion is
needed.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The entire area remains highlighted in Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
for severe weather late this afternoon into the evening. Primary
threat remains strong winds, although localized heavy rainfall and
small hail are possible.

2) A big cool down is on the way for Wednesday and Thursday as high
moves into the area.

3) An unsettled weather pattern with multiple chances of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to impact the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
This afternoon, a few light showers continue to linger across far
NEOH and NWPA, keeping cloud cover over that portion of the area and
limiting keeping destabilization at a minimum right now. However,
across western counties, cloud decks have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly rose into the low 80s with dewpoints in
the upper 60s, trending towards the low 70s. This has allowed for
rapid destabilization with modeled soundings suggesting SB CAPE
already in the 2000-2500 J/kg range and steepening low level lapse
rates close to 8 C/km. The best shear with this event should remain
north of the area with bulk shear values in the 15-25 knot range.
Given these environmental conditions, would not be surprised to see
some isolated storms develop this afternoon ahead of a main line
expected to push east later this evening. DCAPE values near 1000
J/kg add confidence that the primary hazard concern with any
convection with be strong to damaging winds. Cannot rule out some
small hail, especially in the discrete cells ahead of the primary
line. The tornado threat remains very low, although not zero, given
the best shear is to the north of the area. Any quick spin ups that
do occur would likely be embedded within the line of convection this
evening. The final concern is locally heavy rainfall, especially in
the most developed cells, that could lead to localized ponding on
area roads. Modeled soundings suggest that brief training of cells
could occur this evening along the boundary which would coincide in
timing with an increased warm cloud layer and PWAT push. Overall
concern for widespread flooding this evening remains low, but to
highlight the potential WPC has included the entire area in a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) ERO today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Late tonight, a strong cold front is expected to move east across
the area, marking a transition back to much cooler temperatures for
Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures are expected to be nearly
20 degrees cooler compared to today, only climbing into the upper
50s to low 60s as 850mb of 5-7C nudge south over the area. Some
lingering showers will be possible across the southern tier of
counties on Wednesday before the cold front fully pushes south and
high pressure dries everything out through Thursday. Unfortunately,
that means that Wednesday will be rather dreary as cloud coverage
across the area lingers before peaks of sunshine return on Thursday.
To compliment daytime highs, overnight lows Wednesday night will
fall into the low to mid 40s and into the upper 40s to low 50s
Thursday night. At this point, there is no concern for a late season
frost.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
The upcoming holiday weekend will be fairly unsettled as multiple
shortwave troughs push east across the region, bringing chances of
showers and thunderstorms to the area as a near stationary boundary
settles somewhere near the CWA. Initially, this boundary on Friday
should begin to push north of the area, marking a transition back to
warmer and more seasonable temperatures for the weekend. Then this
boundary will ebb and flow over the CWA as the aforementioned
troughs push east. As moisture increases over the area, multiple
rounds of rainfall, potentially heavy at times, will result in
possible flood concerns across area rivers and potential aerial
flooding where rain persists. WPC has already highlighted the area
in a Day 4 Marginal (level 1 of 5) ERO. The thunder potential should
be isolated to daytime hours as diurnal instability adds additional
support for shower development, but any severe potential remains
uncertain at this time. Highs throughout the weekend will be in the
70s with mild overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Better chance of convective activity hitting all terminals in
this forecast compared to this time yesterday as thunderstorms
set to develop west of the area around 20Z and spread eastward.
Strong wind gusts in storms expected with IFR as well from
reductions in visibilities in ongoing storms. Ahead of this,
southwest winds will gust 20-30kts at the surface. A cold front
will trail the convection tonight, switching winds around from
the southwest to the northwest, and then eventually the
northeast heading into Wednesday. Ceilings lower in the wake of
the cold front to MVFR, with some IFR possible at
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periodic showers late Friday
through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds gusting 20-30kts over the western basin and
15-25kts over the central and eastern basins ahead of a strong
cold front that will come through later this evening/tonight. At
that point, winds will come onshore in the wake of that front,
northwesterly 10-15kts later tonight, and then northeasterly
Wednesday into Wednesday night 10-15kts, and then 15-20kts
Thursday through Friday night. Small Craft Advisories may be
needed in these northeasterly winds for the middle and end of
the week. Winds variable around 10kts for the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record high temperature occurred at Erie, Pennsylvania on Monday.
High temperatures today will approach record values at some locations
again. The following are the records for May 19.

Date    Toledo    Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron     Youngstown   Erie
05-19   92(1996)  88(1964)   88(1998)    91(1911)   89(1934)    90(1996)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ142>144.

&&

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
209 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

LEZ142>144-162>164-OHZ003-006>009-017-018-201815-
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Hancock-Seneca-
209 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central Ohio
and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Thunderstorms are likely to develop in Northwest Ohio late this
afternoon and spread east through this evening. There is a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather with scattered tree and power
line damage. Isolated hail to quarter size or a brief tornado are
also possible. The main window for severe weather is between 4 and
10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-145>149-165>169-OHZ010>014-019>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-201815-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-
on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Huron-
Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-
Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
209 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely to develop in Northwest Ohio late this
afternoon and spread east through this evening. There is a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather with scattered tree and power
line damage. Isolated hail to quarter size or a brief tornado are
also possible. The main window for severe weather is between 4 and
10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
513 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

OHZ003-006-192200-
Wood OH-Lucas OH-
513 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WOOD AND LUCAS
COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 513 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Holland, or near Toledo, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Toledo, Swanton, Perrysburg, Oregon, Sylvania, Rossford, Waterville,
Northwood, Whitehouse, Holland, Maumee, Ottawa Hills, Walbridge,
Berkey, Harbor View, and Neapolis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
northwestern Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4172 8387 4173 8346 4173 8345 4172 8347
      4171 8345 4170 8346 4169 8343 4169 8335
      4171 8334 4167 8327 4145 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 247DEG 36KT 4162 8367

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kahn

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
524 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 3 ENE Catawba Island    41.60N 82.78W
05/18/2026  M40 MPH          LEZ143             OH   Buoy

            Delayed report... Buoy 45201 measured a 35
            kt marine thunderstorm wind gust.

&&

Sefcovic

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
527 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 ENE Huron             41.40N 82.55W
05/18/2026  M39 MPH          LEZ144             OH   C-Man Station

            Delayed report... C-Man Station HHLO1
            measured a 34 kt marine thunderstorm wind
            gust.

&&

Sefcovic

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
535 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

OHZ003-006>008-192230-
Wood OH-Ottawa OH-Sandusky OH-Lucas OH-
535 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT OTTAWA...NORTHWESTERN
SANDUSKY...CENTRAL WOOD AND CENTRAL LUCAS COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM
EDT...

At 535 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mcclure, or 11 miles west of Bowling Green, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Bowling Green, Perrysburg, Oregon, Rossford, Waterville, Northwood,
Gibsonburg, Genoa, Woodville, Weston, Elmore, Walbridge, Pemberville,
Millbury, Haskins, Luckey, Grand Rapids, Lindsey, Portage, and Rocky
Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
northwestern Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4145 8388 4167 8328 4165 8324 4164 8323
      4163 8319 4141 8317 4125 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 249DEG 33KT 4140 8387

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Kahn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
539 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

OHZ006-008-017-018-192245-
Seneca OH-Wood OH-Hancock OH-Sandusky OH-
539 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SENECA...
SOUTHWESTERN SANDUSKY...SOUTHERN WOOD AND NORTHERN HANCOCK COUNTIES
THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

At 539 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
McComb, or 10 miles northeast of Ottawa, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Findlay, Tiffin, Fostoria, North Baltimore, Gibsonburg, McComb,
Arcadia, Van Buren, Bradner, Wayne, Bloomdale, Bettsville, Risingsun,
Cygnet, Jerry City, Hoytville, Benton Ridge, Helena, West Millgrove,
and Burgoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
northwestern Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4141 8317 4113 8315 4098 8388 4125 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 250DEG 31KT 4109 8387

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Kahn