Hail in Ohio, April 1, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
135 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely through tonight
along and south of Interstate 70 with lower probabilities for
them producing hazardous weather. The rest of the forecast
outlook remains unchanged.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms mainly south
of I-70 today may pose all-hazard threats, with low probability
flood threat lingering overnight.

2) Low probability thunderstorm chances linger Thursday into
Saturday morning amid the anonymously warm environment, with a
non-zero threat for localized flash flooding. Widespread
thunderstorm are likely Saturday ahead of a cold front with low
probability for all-hazard threats.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Latest satellite and surface analysis places the surface cold
front along the I-70 corridor in eastern OH and stretching
through the Pittsburgh metro. For locations north of this
current positioning, the expectation is for periods of light to
occasionally moderate rain showers favoring the overnight period
(coinciding a bit to northward lift of the boundary as a warm
front) with slightly below average temperature seeing minimal
diurnal heating.

The focus is for locations south of the boundary where
environmental conditions favor storm development and low
probability severe threats through this evening. Specifically,
SBCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg, 40kts effective shear, and
marginal mid-level dry air lends toward a marginal damaging wind
and hail threat while relatively high LCL heights limits the
tornadic potential. Storms are already developing and are
expected to continue to develop ahead of a weak, embedded
shortwave set to cross between 3pm-9pm EDT tonight. While the
loss of heating should see severe threat probabilities fall
overnight,localized flash flooding concerns continue as
convection persists into early Friday morning ahead of the wave
and north of the lifting warm front. Storm motion near 40mph in
such environment generally precludes flooding concerns, but
flooding threats should be monitored given antecedent wet
grounds for portions of eastern OH to southwest PA plus PWATs
near the daily max (an indicator of potential efficient/heavy
rain).

Drier conditions return by Thursday afternoon as the warm front
lifts north of the region, creating a lull in overall areal
threats.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

For Thursday into Friday, the upper Ohio River Valley region is
favored to remain within an anomalously warm and moist
environment between southeast CONUS ridging and central CONUS
shortwave movement. Limited lift and warm mid-level air
precludes much severe concerns but PWATs hovering around the
95th percentiles and weaker storm motions over fairly saturated
grounds suggests a low probability flash flood threat remains IF
storm development can occur. At this time, any convective
activity is likely to be isolated until better forcing/lift
arrives Friday evening into Saturday morning ahead of a warm
frontal boundary.

The more likely hazardous threat remains attached to the pending
cold frontal passage Saturday into Sunday with high confidence
showers and thunderstorms ahead of the boundary. Subtle timing
differences for this line of storms creates uncertainty in the
degree of severe hazard concerns, which will be generally
connected to a Saturday afternoon/early evening arrival (versus
some model depictions arriving overnight Saturday into Sunday
morning). Flooding threats appear low due to progressive frontal
movement leading to 24-hour mean QPF values just under 1";
however, any flooding or further saturation of the ground from
previous day(s) convection could reduce flash flood guidance
while 90th+ percentile PWATs continue to increase the potential
for efficient, high rainfall rates.

Dry slotting should produce a sharp cutoff in storm activity
after the front Sunday, with a pattern shift the lends to near
or below average temperature and low probability rain/snow
showers for the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front is currently located south of I-70 in Ohio,
wraps northward between PIT and AGC and then exits our region
north of IDI. The front divides our region into IFR and LIFR to
the north and a mix of VFR to MVFR to the south. The last breath
of showers are just now clearing FKL/DUJ but we are already
beginning to see convection fire south of I-70.

Storms remain likely for MGW and ZZV. Further north PROB30
groups have been included with some uncertainty in which areas
remain showers with embedded thunderstorms and which areas see
discrete storms. Storms south of I-70 can become heavy to severe
and bring damaging wind gusts. CIGs and VIS will degrade in any
thunderstorms and are expected to come down some in the
overnight hours.

The front is expected to move northward again this evening and
possibly stall along the eastern ridges into Thursday, allowing
for continued shower activity through the overnight hours,
before the area dries out tomorrow morning.

Outlook... Restriction chances continue through Thursday and
Friday with the stalled boundary. A crossing cold front Saturday
returns severe weather chances, but eventually clears the
region out and promotes drier weather behind it beginning Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Frazier
AVIATION...AK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
453 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

OHZ040-041-PAZ007>009-013>016-020-022-020900-
Carroll-Columbiana-Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-
Jefferson PA-Beaver-Armstrong-
453 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio and western
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ039-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ021-029-031-073>078-WVZ001>004-012-
021-509>514-020900-
Tuscarawas-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Muskingum-Guernsey-
Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Allegheny-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Indiana-Higher Elevations of Indiana-
Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
453 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, southwest
Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, with damaging wind gusts and large hail the primary
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

CL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
906 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1204 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 W White Oak           40.34N 79.82W
04/01/2026                   Allegheny          PA   Public

            Report of damage to multiple trees in the
            Haler Heights area of McKeesport near
            Renziehausen Park. Time estimated based on
            radar.

&&

JF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
908 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Versailles          40.33N 79.83W
04/01/2026                   Allegheny          PA   Public

            Report of some trees snapped in half. Time
            estimated based on radar.

&&

JF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1031 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SW Irwin              40.30N 79.73W
04/01/2026                   Westmoreland       PA   Emergency Mngr

            Report of trees down near the intersection
            of George Street and Trolist Drive. Time
            estimated based on radar.

1210 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SW Irwin              40.30N 79.73W
04/01/2026                   Westmoreland       PA   Emergency Mngr

            Report of trees down near the intersection
            of Barnes Lake Road and Clay Pike. Time
            estimated based on radar.

&&

Frazier