Damaging Wind in Nebraska, June 7, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
651 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible
  across northwest Nebraska this evening. Strong wind gusts and
  isolated large hail will be possible with the strongest
  storms.

- Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected
  Monday across western and north central Nebraska, with a
  Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. Large
  hail and gusty winds are possible, though a tornado or two
  cannot be ruled out.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are
  possible Tuesday afternoon across western Nebraska, with a
  Fire Weather Watch in effect Tuesday afternoon into the
  evening. Additional concerns are possible Wednesday.

- Hot temperatures are expected on Tuesday afternoon, with highs
  in the upper 90s expected and highs in the lower 100s
  possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A low pressure system tracks across the northern Plains, bringing a
greater severe risk north of the area. On the southern end of the
larger system, a surface trough will track across the Panhandle this
afternoon and evening, which will provide a source of lift for
potential showers and thunderstorms. With the ongoing surface
heating, still expecting around 1,500-2,000 J/kg of surface based
CAPE across northwest Nebraska. However, deep layer shear remains
relatively meager, generally on the order of around 25 knots, which
may limit potential for more organized convection. Forecast
soundings across the northwest suggest steep lapse rates, though,
and fairly strong low level mixing. All of this points to a fairly
marginal severe weather set up late this afternoon and evening,
conditional on whether storms can form and remain somewhat isolated.
A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms remains in
effect for northwest Nebraska, with the main threats being large
hail and severe wind gusts. With the expected low level mixing,
believe strong thunderstorm wind gusts will be the main threat, but
cannot rule out the potential for some isolated large hail should a
stronger storm develop in the environment. Throughout the rest of
the night, the surface trough may initiate some weaker showers and
thunderstorms which are expected to track across the Sandhills. The
severe risk remains low with any storms after midnight, with storms
overnight mostly bringing rainfall across portions of the region.

With the larger system tracking across North Dakota, expecting the
cold front associated with the system to track across the region on
Monday, eventually stalling across the Sandhills. The cold front
will be the catalyst for a greater severe weather threat Monday
afternoon and evening across the region. Dewpoints are expected to
climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s across eastern portions of the
region, and potentially west into the Sandhills. Still a little
uncertainty remains in how far west these higher dewpoints track,
which will have impact on the exact scope of severe weather threats.
Even with some uncertainty in dewpoints, SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (Level 2 of 5) across portions of western and southwest
Nebraska, with the rest of the region in a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms. However, stronger instability is still expected to
develop across the region, especially across southwest Nebraska. In
addition to the stronger instability, deep layer shear is expected
to be on the order of around 50 knots. In this environment,
supercell development will be possible along the frontal boundary,
posing a risk for large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition to
this, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially across far
southwest Nebraska in vicinity of the front. As the evening evolves,
storms are expected to grow upscale into a more linear system,
continuing the risk for severe wind gusts. These storms will also
pose a risk for heavy rain, with CAM guidance suggesting amounts
above an inch under more intense convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Tuesday, hot temperatures are expected across the region. Anomalous
850 mb temperatures build across the region, and a dry line tracks
across the Sandhills. With the warm temperatures aloft and
relatively low humidity across the region, expecting highs to push
into the 90s across the region, with potential for some areas to
reach the lower 100s. Latest probabilistic guidance suggests highs
in the 90s are a near lock across the region, with a 70 percent
chance of highs exceeding 95 degrees. There is still a suggestion of
highs breaking 100, especially along and south of the Interstate 80
corridor, where there is a 40 percent chance of highs breaking 100.

With the highs pushing well above average on Tuesday and the dry
line tracking east, very low humidity builds across western
Nebraska. Across the eastern Panhandle into the western Sandhills,
relative humidity values are expected to reach into the 10 to 20
percent range. Conditions will also be breezy on Tuesday, with
sustained southwest winds around 20 to 30 mph and gusts up to 45
mph. With the combination of hot temperatures, very low humidity,
and gusty winds, near critical to critical fire weather conditions
are expected across western Nebraska, and as such, a Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for Tuesday afternoon and evening. Adding some
concern, thunderstorms may develop along a cold front and track
across the northern Panhandle Tuesday evening. Given the dry
environment, little precipitation is currently expected, which may
introduce a risk for gusty erratic winds and lightning.
Additionally, with the dry line in play and frontal passage,
expecting very poor humidity recovery overnight, with humidity
recovering around 40 to 50 percent. At this time, wind gusts are
expected to end by late evening, which may limit overnight concerns.
However, will continue to monitor this set up, as potential for fire
weather appears quite high Tuesday afternoon into the evening.

Guidance continues coming into consensus for Wednesday, indicating
cooler highs across most of the region, especially across the
northwest. Highs are currently expected to range from the 80s to low
90s. Latest probabilistic guidance suggests around a 50 percent
chance of highs breaking 90 on Wednesday, especially along and south
of the Interstate 80 corridor and across portions of central and
north central Nebraska. However, even with the cooler highs, very
dry air remains across most of the region, and very windy conditions
are expected to persist. Most of the area is expected to see
afternoon humidity values less than 20 percent, with western
Nebraska, southwest Nebraska, and the Sandhills in the 10 to 15
percent range. Strong westerly winds are expected, with sustained
winds of 20 to 30 mph, and gusts in excess of 45 mph. The continued
low humidity and gusty winds may lead to additional near critical to
critical fire weather concerns across the region. Will continue to
keep an eye on the forecast trends, as there is some question on how
far the cold front pushes east, which may determine the extent of
the impact.

Late week, temperatures are expected to return to the 80s across the
region, remaining slightly warmer than seasonal average. For
reference, our highs for mid June are typically around the lower
80s. Currently, conditions are expected to remain mostly dry and
breezy, so could see continuing fire weather concerns late week.
Though there is a slight chance of showers building in by the
weekend, confidence remains on the lower side, given some
uncertainty in the upper level pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

The main concern will be the threat for early evening convection
to the west along with renewed development overnight potentially
impacting LBF. Convection to the west has been slow to move east
off the higher terrain. Clear skies early will give way to
increasing high cloud cover with anvil blowoff. Believe any
threat for activity at LBF should hold off until after midnight
and perhaps closer to daybreak on Monday. Have introduced a VCTS
mention with TEMPO group to highlight potential impacts. Even
the worst case scenario suggests low-end VFR conditions but
gusty erratic winds are possible.

Conditions should improve after daybreak on Monday though
short-term guidance is far from resolute in how Monday
convection plays out. For now, will keep conditions largely
devoid of any major impacts outside of some low stratus in the
north. Adjustments are likely with later forecasts as confidence
increases.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue
across western Nebraska through the evening, largely driven by
strong gusty winds and above average temperatures. A brief break is
expected on Monday, as conditions become less breezy, and humidity
remains above 30 percent.

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions return on Tuesday,
especially across western Nebraska into the western Sandhills. As a
dry line tracks across the region, very dry air will accompany well
above average temperatures. Winds are expected to remain gusty on
Tuesday, as well. With this combination, have opted to issue a Fire
Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Humidity recovery
remains poor overnight, though winds may become less gusty.
Conditions appear favorable to continued fire weather concerns
Wednesday afternoon as humidity remains poor, with gusty winds.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for NEZ204.

&&

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...Richie

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
345 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-082045-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
345 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 /245 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Near critical fire weather concerns are expected to continue this
afternoon and evening across the western Sandhills and Panhandle.

An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this
evening across the Sandhills and northwest Nebraska. Severe wind
gusts are the main concern, though isolated large hail cannot be
ruled out in stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Monday afternoon
and evening. At this time, the main concerns are damaging wind gusts
and large hail, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Hot weather is expected next week, especially on Tuesday, with
highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

Near critical to critical fire weather concerns will be possible
both Tuesday and Wednesday, generally for areas along and especially
west of Highway 83.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
623 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

NEZ004-022-080145-
Sheridan NE-Garden NE-
623 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT GARDEN AND SOUTHWESTERN SHERIDAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM MDT...

At 623 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Alliance Municipal Airport to 9 miles east of
Dalton. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Oshkosh, Ellsworth, Lisco, Antioch, Crescent Lake National Wildlife
Refuge, Dogtown Flats, Deer Lake, Britton Lake, Richardson Lake,
Miles Lake, Mumper, Wickson Lake, Diamond Lake, Herman Lake, Adams
Flats, Krause Lake, Sugar Loaf Hill, Rackett, Patterson Lake, and
Kennedy Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 250 between mile markers 1 and 22.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 96 and 122.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in North Platte.

&&

LAT...LON 4241 10220 4134 10218 4128 10261 4139 10261
      4140 10264 4174 10264 4177 10268 4200 10268
      4201 10270 4209 10270 4210 10274 4228 10275
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 246DEG 16KT 4205 10279 4145 10280

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NMJ