Near average temperatures and precipitation led to little long-term change in drought conditions.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FSD wrote it up.
Near average temperatures and precipitation led to little long-term change in drought conditions.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 31, 11:02 PM CST, 58 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1202 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wintry precipitation expected north of I-90 Wednesday night
into Thursday. A bigger threat for sleet and freezing rain
than snow. Winter Weather Advisory for Highway 14 corridor
and SD Highway 34/MN Highway 30.
- A much needed rainfall will move into the area Wednesday and
continue into Thursday morning. Much of the area will see a
half an inch to an inch of rain/total liquid precipitation.
- Isolated thunderstorm potential late Thursday night early
Friday morning in mainly northwest IA. Severe weather unlikely
but some small hail would be possible.
- Friday is a tricky day with the potential for freezing rain
and sleet. The better chances for snow should be mostly
northwest of the area. Enough of an icing threat that some
minor to moderate impacts will be possible.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Thermal profiles continue to fluctuate for the first wave of our
return to winter, with latest NBM and several CAMs coming in
3-5F warmer for highs on Wednesday than previous forecast. Will
begin the day with a fairly dry sub-cloud layer below 10kft AGL,
but as the wave approaches and lift increases, clouds will
thicken and precipitation coverage will likewise increase.
Easterly low level winds are not typically favorable for strong
boundary layer warming, especially when dynamic wet-bulb cooling
will also be working against extensive warming. Thus will stick
closer to the previous forecast for highs, ranging from 35-40F
for most areas north of I-90 to mid-upper 40s in northwest Iowa.
Locations which see precipitation in the morning will more likely
be very light snow, but with the dry layer to overcome, only
trace amounts should be seen. As precipitation increases in
coverage through the day, type should be more predominantly rain
with perhaps a very wet snow in our northern areas.
Wednesday night into Thursday continues to be the greatest period
of concern with regard to wintry weather impacts with freezing
rain and/or sleet remaining more likely across our northern two
tiers of counties than substantial snow. Given the latest data, a
little concerned about seeing icing expand into the Madison and
Flandreau areas, so expanded the Winter Weather Advisory into
Lake and Moody counties, but otherwise no headline changes at
this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Cool high pressure moves by to the north tonight which will allow
easterly flow at the surface to develop. With winds remaining at
about 5 to 15 mph through the night, temperatures should not drop
off significantly, falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s in most
locations.
Moisture aloft increases through the day on Wednesday while low
level moisture lags a bit. By afternoon the low level moisture
starts to creep into areas west of I-29. Upper level support moves
into the area by late Wednesday afternoon with some weak
destabilization which should lead to scattered showers. Given
expected surface temperatures, all rain is anticipated although some
snow would be possible north of I-90 and maybe a bit of a mix closer
to highway 14 towards sunset. At least through sunset amounts north
of I-90 will likely be limited by this lower level dry air as the
lift and precipitation slowly overcome it.
The strongest lift will be roughly 10 pm Wednesday night through 6
am Thursday morning. Weak instability south of I-90 aids the strong
lift as the upper level wave moves from central NE into southwest MN
during this time. The biggest challenge during this time will be
surface temperatures which will dictate the rain vs. freezing rain,
but also the warmest T aloft which will dictate freezing rain vs.
sleet. Currently much of southeast MN and nearby locations will see
the best chance for the warm layer aloft and surface temperatures
creeping down to 30-32 degrees. The latest Nam and HRRR both
indicating about 0.25" to 0.50" of freezing rain in these locations.
Given the warm ground temperatures, much of the affects may end up
on elevated surfaces, which would include power lines. While winds
are not excessive, gusts of 15 to 20 mph look likely. Given some
confidence that surface temperatures will remain just above 32 with
the potential for latent heat release with moderate rainfall and the
latest Nam and Consshort all indicating temperatures hovering
between 32 to 34 for much of the area most susceptible for icing.
Precipitation chances will linger through Thursday afternoon, but
anything that falls Thursday afternoon will be on the lighter side.
A break in activity is expected late Thursday afternoon into the
early overnight hours before the effects of the next wave spread
into the area. Late Thursday night, elevated instability (CAPE
values 500-1000 J/kg) moves into in northwest IA, far southeast SD
and northeast NE late Thursday night into Friday morning. While
severe weather is not expected, if that amount of instability does
come to fruition, some dime sized hail would be possible with the
freezing level around 9000 ft.
After the morning elevated convective push, the next trend to keep
an eye on will be dry slotting. The models are hinting that areas
near and east of I-29 may end up with little in the way of
saturation aloft through the afternoon and without much convective
help, these locations may remain mainly dry during this time. Will
keep the chance for precipitation in however as confidence on a
total dry slot shut down of precipitation is not there. The main
concern with this system will be the potential again for freezing
rain and sleet. Confidence definitely not high enough for any
headlines, especially given the Wednesday night/Thursday system, but
something to keep an eye on trends. Will also watch the trends of
some strong lift in central SD which would likely be mostly snow.
This would affect especially the Chamberlain and Huron locations.
Cold and windy on Saturday with a lingering chance for light snow.
Generally looking at highs in the 30s to lower 40s and wind chills
in the teens.
Northwest flow aloft remains in place Sunday through Tuesday with
near seasonal to below normal temperatures expected. The chances for
precipitation remain minimal during this time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026
VFR conditions will begin the period, but conditions will slowly
deteriorate after 12-14Z Wednesday as scattered light snow/rain
begins to develop. MVFR conditions begin to expand after 18-20Z
Wednesday afternoon as rain/snow becomes more widespread, with
ceilings lowering to IFR after sunset. Precipitation type looks
to be mainly rain through the afternoon/evening, except along
the Highway 14 corridor where there is a low (20-30%) chance of
a wintry mix after sunset. This would range from rain/snow at
KHON, to a potential for light icing from around KBKX eastward
toward KMML/KTKC.
North-northeast winds swing to the east late tonight with
occasional gusts 20-25kt after daybreak Wednesday through the
end of this TAF period..
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 6 PM CDT
Thursday for SDZ038>040-055-056.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 6 PM CDT
Thursday for MNZ071-072-080-081-097.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
UPDATE...JH
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...JHHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 357 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097- 098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-010900- Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee- Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson- Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory- Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook- Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton- Union- 357 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Continued dry and breezy conditions this afternoon will lead to elevated fire danger risk especially along the Missouri River Valley and northwestern IA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. A late-winter system will bring periods of rain, accumulating snowfall, and wintry mix to the region from Wednesday to Thursday. Snowfall accumulations will vary between 2-4 inches north of I-90 with the potential for a glaze of ice as well. Slightly higher ice accumulations will be possible across southwestern MN. Additional chances for precipitation will be possible from Friday to Saturday. However, some details are still uncertain. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Extreme (D3) drought conditions eased to severe (D2) drought early in the month.
Severe (D2) drought conditions eased briefly to moderate (D1) drought around mid-month before returning to severe (D2) late month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, April 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1332847, 1332848.