Tornado in Minnesota, May 27, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
159 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
  this afternoon. While severe weather is not expected,
  lightning and occasionally strong wind gust up to 40-45 mph
  are possible.

- After warmer temperatures through Thursday, conditions will
  cool towards more seasonal temperatures over the weekend with
  low to moderate precipitation chances (30-70%) concentrated
  along and west of the James River Valley.

- Low chances (<=30%) for rain will persist through the first
  half of next week. However, severe storm chances continue to
  look low over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Beginning to see some CU develop early this afternoon. This CU field
looks to mature just a little bit more to produce weak
thundershowers across the area over the next few hours. With weak
instability in place (~500 J/kg) and deep layer shear values on the
order of 10-15 knots, severe weather is not expected. With dry low
levels and high LCLs, DCAPE values will be high, near 1,000 J/kg.
Thus, gusty winds are possible with any weak storm that forms. The
strongest gusts could reach up to 40-45 mph. Lightning is also
possible as well which could impact outdoor events. The good news is
that these weak storms will be diurnally driven so they will quickly
dissipate by sundown. Low temperatures will remain on the warm side,
only falling down to the low to mid 60s.

The omega block pattern will persist through Thursday, with broad,
weak southeast flow persisting across the area. This will keep high
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Dew points will remain in
the 50s which will result in lower humidity values across the area.
There could be a few showers though moisture quality is a bit
uncertain. Thus, have left the forecast dry for Thursday afternoon
and evening. Winds will strengthen out of the south east with gusts
up to about 30 mph. With dry conditions in place, there could be
locally elevated fire danger in locations that received little to no
rain recently. Otherwise, low temperatures will remain warm, only
falling down to the upper 50s to low 60s.

Friday looks to be another dry day for the majority of the area.
High temperatures will begin to cool this day with highs warming to
the 80s to up to about 90F. Breezy southerly winds will persist
though the strongest winds will take place west of I-29 and
especially west of the James River as the surface pressure gradient
will be tighter in this area. Gusts up to 20-35 mph is expected with
isolated gusts potentially reaching up to about 40 mph. A closed low
that is spinning over the western CONUS will begin to push
eastwards. This trough will not make it fully to the forecast area
but begin to brush up against the area Friday evening. This could
result in some showery activity along and west of the James River
though chances for rain are low (<=30%) at this time.

Chances for rain will only increase for Saturday and Sunday as the
trough edges closer to the area. The highest chances for rain will
come Saturday night as a warm air advection (WAA) strengthens aloft
in tandem with weak shortwaves rotating around the base of the upper
trough. The ensembles show a 40-70% chance for rainfall amounts to
exceed a tenth of an inch for this period of time, highest along and
west of the James River. Chances for rain will decrease for the day
on Sunday, down to a 30-50% chance for exceeding the same amount of
rain. Some instability looks to be in place, signaling the
potential for thunderstorms though shear values remain weak,
precluding severe storm chances. With rain chances hanging around
for the weekend, high temperatures will be a bit cooler, only
warming to the 80s.

The omega block pattern looks to persist through the first half of
next week. High temperatures will remain on the warm side in the
80s. While forcing for ascent will be weak, the ensembles continue
to show a <=30% chance for rainfall amounts to exceed a tenth of an
inch, signaling low end chances for rain during this period of
time. With the ridge axis centered over or near the forecast area,
wind shear looks to remain weak. While thunderstorms will be
possible, severe weather chances look to remain low at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Light and variable
winds begin the period but will turn weakly westerly over the next
few hours. A few weak showers are beginning to push into KHON but
lightning is not expected with these weak showers. However,
additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop later
this afternoon. Confidence is highest in storm occurring around KFSD
and thus have added a PROB30 group to KFSD's TAF. These showers and
storms will dissipate this evening, leaving quiet conditions for the
rest of the evening and overnight hours. Winds will turn to out of
the southeast to end the TAF period tomorrow morning.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Meyers
AVIATION...Meyers

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
330 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-280830-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
330 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

After a few lingering showers this morning east of I-29. Additional
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
ahead of a cold front. While severe weather is not expected, an
occasionally strong wind gust up to 45 mph will be possible

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

While the severe weather risk is low, additional shower and
thunderstorm chances are expected over the weekend mainly along and
west of the James River Valley.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.