What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Shreveport, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 19, 11:56 AM CST, 4 hours 34 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, particularly across the northwestern ArkLaTex. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats, and a spin-up tornado or two is not out of the question,
- Widespread rainfall will continue on a daily basis through the course of the next seven days, resulting in total accumulations of 4 to 7 inches.
- As soils become saturated from repeated rounds of rainfall, the risk of flash flooding will become a concern through late this week and into the weekend.
Area forecast discussion, May 19, 11:56 AM CST, 4 hours 34 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1256 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
and evening, particularly across the northwestern ArkLaTex.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats, and
a spin-up tornado or two is not out of the question,
- Widespread rainfall will continue on a daily basis through the
course of the next seven days, resulting in total
accumulations of 4 to 7 inches.
- As soils become saturated from repeated rounds of rainfall, the
risk of flash flooding will become a concern through late this
week and into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
An initial wave of showers and thunderstorms is pushing through
extreme southeast Oklahoma into southwest Arkansas at this hour,
along a boundary out ahead out the main cold front draped across
southern Oklahoma and north Texas. As the front pushes east and
south today, a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms will
develop further along the front's southern extent, advancing into
the ArkLaTex this afternoon into the evening. Damaging wind gusts
will be the principal hazard, along with large hail north. The
threat for tornadoes is comparably low, though a brief spin-up is
not out of the question altogether. Finally, training areas of heavy
rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas across the western ArkLaTex.
Today's wave of strong thunderstorms should run its course by late
this evening, diminishing in intensity as it makes southeastward
progress, but the rainfall will just be beginning, as the front
responsible for the storms slows its progress and becomes nearly
stationary, stalling near or along the I-20 corridor. A series of
weak upper level disturbances embedded in the southwest flow will
trek northeastward over the region through the remainder of the week
and into the weekend, tapping into the firehose of moisture which
will be aimed at the ArkLaTex throughout the course of this forecast
period. It bears mentioning that this does not mean a week's worth
of continuous rainfall, per se, but we do expect frequent enough
impulses to result in high confidence of at least daily rounds of
showers and a few rumbles of thunder.
The persistent nature of this set up is also elevating the potential
for flash flooding. The ArkLaTex is included in at least lower-end
risk flood outlooks through the remainder of the week. The most
recent accumulation forecast totals suggest at least 4 inches of
rain across the region, with the highest totals in the 5 to 7 inch
range. Bear in mind, these totals will be accumulated through the
course of the next 7 days, not in a single event, but as soils
become saturated with daily rainfall by late this week, it will not
take as much additional rain to result in flooding.
Reinforced by southerly flow, warm conditions will continue this
afternoon, before this wet pattern puts a dent in the well-above
average temperatures of the past few days. Highs will settle into
the low to middle 80s by late in the week, with lows in the 60s
throughout.
/26/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Ceilings have largely recovered to VFR early this afternoon and
will largely prevail through the rest of the afternoon and evening,
with the exception of temporary drops to MVFR (and possibly IFR)
within thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon ahead of the main line of thunderstorms
currently moving across SE Oklahoma. The main line of thunderstorms
will affect TAF sites later this afternoon and through the evening,
with gusty and erratic winds expected, vsby reductions, and very
heavy rainfall. Vsbys and ceilings will then fall area-wide in the
wake of storms overnight tonight before then struggling to improve
before the end of the TAF cycle at 20/18z. Winds this afternoon will
be breezy out of the S at 10-15kts with rather frequent gusts to 20-
30kts, then becoming more variable generally out of the E overnight
and Wednesday morning at under 10kts.
CK
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Spotter activation may be needed areawide through early this
evening. /26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 71 84 70 82 / 80 60 70 90
MLU 71 85 69 85 / 80 70 70 80
DEQ 66 81 65 77 / 40 50 60 70
TXK 68 84 67 81 / 50 50 60 80
ELD 68 83 66 81 / 70 70 60 90
TYR 69 82 68 79 / 80 70 60 90
GGG 69 83 69 81 / 80 70 60 80
LFK 72 85 71 83 / 70 90 60 90
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...23
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 19, 2:59 PM CST, 1 hour 31 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
359 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
LAZ001>003-010>012-TXZ138-151-153-192145-
De Soto LA-Shelby TX-Harrison TX-Bossier LA-Bienville LA-Red
River LA-Panola TX-Webster LA-Caddo LA-
359 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT CADDO...BOSSIER...NORTHWESTERN DE
SOTO...NORTHWESTERN RED RIVER...WEST CENTRAL BIENVILLE AND
SOUTHWESTERN WEBSTER PARISHES AND SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON...PANOLA AND
NORTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...
At 359 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of showers extending
from 8 miles south of Cotton Valley to 9 miles northeast of Tatum, or
extending from 12 miles northwest of Minden to 11 miles south of
Marshall, moving south at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Shreveport, Bossier City, Marshall, Carthage, Haughton, Greenwood,
Blanchard, Waskom, Benton, Stonewall, Cotton Valley, Beckville,
Doyline, Mooringsport, Belcher, Elysian Fields, Deberry, Fosters,
Eastwood and Scottsville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3255 9448 3288 9341 3220 9339 3206 9391
3193 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 2DEG 31KT 3270 9346 3251 9389 3238 9439
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
57Special weather statement, May 19, 3:44 PM CST, 46 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
444 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
LAZ001-002-192230-
Caddo LA-Bossier LA-
444 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CADDO AND
SOUTHWESTERN BOSSIER PARISHES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...
At 444 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shreveport, moving northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Shreveport, Bossier City, Fosters, Forbing, Barksdale Air Force
Base, Cross Lake, Ferguson, Red Chute and Bodcau.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3233 9381 3237 9395 3261 9384 3255 9357
3232 9369 3232 9372 3233 9373 3233 9374
3234 9374 3234 9380
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 205DEG 15KT 3241 9380
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
57Special weather statement, May 19, 3:46 PM CST, 44 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
446 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
TXZ152-165-166-192230-
Nacogdoches TX-San Augustine TX-Angelina TX-
446 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN
NACOGDOCHES...ANGELINA AND SOUTHERN SAN AUGUSTINE COUNTIES UNTIL 530
PM CDT...
At 446 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms extending from near Hudson to 14 miles south of Macune,
or extending from 7 miles west of Lufkin to 32 miles east of Lufkin,
moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Lufkin, Diboll, Hudson, Huntington, Etoile, Woden, Macune, Pollok,
Burke, Zavalla, Broaddus, Shawnee, Homer, Dolan, Redland, Clawson,
Central and Chinaquapin.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3158 9482 3140 9404 3137 9402 3134 9404
3130 9405 3125 9403 3110 9412 3107 9428
3105 9453 3107 9460 3110 9465 3109 9466
3113 9479 3118 9485 3123 9486 3126 9490
3128 9488 3130 9490 3133 9490 3134 9496
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 210DEG 33KT 3136 9483 3116 9463 3123 9420
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
23Special weather statement, May 19, 3:50 PM CST, 40 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
450 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
LAZ002>004-012-192230-
Claiborne LA-Webster LA-Bossier LA-Bienville LA-
450 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BOSSIER...
SOUTHERN CLAIBORNE...NORTHWESTERN BIENVILLE AND SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER
PARISHES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...
At 450 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from near Heflin to 6 miles southwest of
Ringgold, or extending from 10 miles south of Minden to 24 miles
southeast of Bossier City, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Ringgold, Sibley, Doyline, Dubberly, Heflin, Jamestown, Ogden,
Noles Landing, Lake Bistineau North, Plum Orchard Landing, Lake
Bistineau South, Ada and Sailes.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3224 9345 3242 9341 3251 9343 3266 9313
3249 9308 3231 9313 3224 9343
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 239DEG 16KT 3248 9331 3240 9329 3228 9337
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
57Special weather statement, May 19, 3:57 PM CST, 33 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
457 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
LAZ001-002-010-011-017-TXZ150>153-192245-
Rusk TX-De Soto LA-Shelby TX-Nacogdoches TX-Sabine LA-Red River
LA-Bossier LA-Panola TX-Caddo LA-
457 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN
NACOGDOCHES...PANOLA...SOUTHEASTERN RUSK AND SHELBY COUNTIES AND
SOUTHERN CADDO...SOUTHERN BOSSIER...DE SOTO...CENTRAL RED RIVER AND
NORTHWESTERN SABINE PARISHES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...
At 457 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 14 miles northwest of Coushatta to 6
miles northwest of Timpson, or extending from 17 miles northeast of
Mansfield to 15 miles southwest of Carthage, moving south at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Carthage, Center, Mansfield, Coushatta, Stonewall, Logansport,
Tenaha, Timpson, Garrison, Joaquin, Converse, Shelbyville,
Pinehill, Appleby, Huxley, South Mansfield, Gary City, Keachi,
Grand Cane and Edgefield.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3218 9464 3222 9401 3234 9345 3226 9341
3225 9341 3224 9343 3224 9339 3197 9324
3195 9324 3191 9335 3192 9336 3193 9335
3193 9338 3192 9338 3192 9340 3193 9342
3191 9344 3188 9344 3172 9388 3170 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 344DEG 16KT 3219 9347 3198 9389 3196 9447
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
57Special weather statement, May 19, 4:28 PM CST, 2 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
528 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
LAZ005-192300-
Lincoln LA-
528 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN LINCOLN PARISH UNTIL 6
PM CDT...
At 528 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Grambling, moving northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Ruston, Grambling, Dubach, Simsboro, Vienna, Mount Zion, Unionville
and Corinth.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3259 9288 3260 9287 3262 9287 3276 9278
3276 9275 3265 9254 3246 9271 3255 9288
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 212DEG 12KT 3255 9277
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
57