What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 31, 11:10 PM CST, 50 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- There is a threat of severe weather both this evening (mainly for large hail), and again on Thursday (mainly for damaging winds). A level 2 severe weather risk exists in both cases.
- A stalled front will bring an extended period of wet weather through midweek, with a 30 percent chance of seeing more than 2 inches of rain in an area focused from Beardstown east to Danville.
- A wind advisory may be needed for eastern Illinois Thursday, with a high likelihood of winds gusting over 40 mph.
- Frost and freeze conditions will be a threat Saturday night and especially Sunday night, which may cause some damage to sensitive vegetation.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 31, 11:10 PM CST, 50 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1210 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a threat of severe weather both this evening (mainly
for large hail), and again on Thursday (mainly for damaging
winds). A level 2 severe weather risk exists in both cases.
- A stalled front will bring an extended period of wet weather
through midweek, with a 30 percent chance of seeing more than
2 inches of rain in an area focused from Beardstown east to
Danville.
- A wind advisory may be needed for eastern Illinois Thursday,
with a high likelihood of winds gusting over 40 mph.
- Frost and freeze conditions will be a threat Saturday night
and especially Sunday night, which may cause some damage to
sensitive vegetation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Much of the earlier convection has moved out, aside from some
residual storms between Mattoon and Terre Haute. An area of
subsidence behind the storms resulted in mostly sunny conditions
west of I-55 by late morning, though some diurnal cumulus has
been filling in since then. Mesoscale analysis indicates some
capping in place in wake of the earlier convection, though this
should erode through the afternoon. On a larger scale, the cold
front extends from the northeast tip of Illinois to near Kansas
City early this afternoon.
Tonight through Thursday night:
The cold front is expected to stall somewhere between I-72 and
I-70 by late tonight, largely remaining in place until the upper
low over Nebraska causes a northward surge late Wednesday night.
HREF guidance shows precipitable water values being near the top
of seasonal climatology through the period, with probabilities
of seeing more than 2 inches of rain around 30% in an area
focused from Beardstown east to Danville. Currently not looking
at an excessive amount of rain at any given time, though
6-hourly amounts of a half to 3/4 inch are not out of the
question tonight and Wednesday morning. However, rain chances
will remain very high until the front surges northward, then
ease back until the trailing cold front arrives later Thursday.
In terms of the severe weather potential, the earlier Day1
outlook had expanded the level 2 (slight) risk to cover most
areas east of the Illinois River and north of I-70. HREF
guidance does show surface based CAPE's of 1000-1500 J/kg ahead
of the front by late afternoon. The HRRR, RRFS, and NAM-Nest are
all showing development along the front in the 5-6 pm time
frame, along with migration of storms in Missouri northeast
ahead of the boundary. Low level shear weakens some early in the
evening over central Illinois, though mid level lapse rates rise
back to around 7.5 C/km or so before diminishing late evening.
Large hail will be the primary severe weather risk. Looking
ahead to Thursday, the front should be arriving toward peak
heating, though the amount of residual cloud cover from earlier
convection remains in question. This severe weather threat
should be more of a wind issue, with more of an inverted-V
signature on forecast soundings.
Speaking of the wind, Thursday looks to be a rather windy day
ahead of the cold front. NAM and GFS soundings from eastern
Illinois suggest 50 knot winds around 900 mb mixing toward the
surface, supporting wind gusts 40-45 mph. NBM box-and-whiskers
plot for Mattoon suggests some potential for over 50 mph if a
longer period of mixing occurs. Will need to watch this time
frame for any potential advisories.
Friday through Tuesday:
While a period of dry conditions follows the front Thursday
night, more showers and thunderstorms arrive later Friday as a
deep upper low moves out of Wyoming into the Dakotas. By
Saturday evening, this low should be centered near the southwest
tip of Lake Superior. Various machine learning algorithms have
been suggesting some additional potential for strong to locally
severe storms Friday into Saturday, though timing of the cold
front passage with the latest set of synoptic models may
preclude the threat lingering into Saturday.
Going into the weekend, focus shifts toward a period of cool
weather, with Saturday and Sunday nights both seeing lows in the
lower to mid 30s. LREF probabilities of sub-freezing lows are
highest Sunday night (40-60%). The normal last freeze of the
season in central Illinois is generally in the April 11-20 range
per climatology, though spring growth has gotten an early start
due to the recent warm weather. Coordination with neighboring
offices will take place to determine whether or not to start
frost/freeze headlines, but the potential will be highlighted in
other products.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026
A slow moving cold front will become stalled out over central IL the
next 24 hours and be the focus for periods of showers and
thunderstorms as multiple disturbances track along it. MVFR to IFR
ceilings observed late tonight will continue to decrease, with
widespread IFR expected at all terminals by 09-12Z. Probabilities
are high (70-80%) for ceilings to remain below 1k feet through the
end of the TAF period. Northeast winds will veer to the east by
afternoon with sustained speeds between 10-20 kts and gusts
overnight up to 25 kt.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
KEY MESSAGES...Geelhart
DISCUSSION...Geelhart
AVIATION...NMA
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 31, 1:55 PM CST, 10 hours 5 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
255 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047-049-050-011100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-Schuyler-Mason-
Cass-Scott-Morgan-
255 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois, mainly near and west of the Illinois River.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early evening, with the
threat diminishing from north to south later tonight as a front
moves through the area. Some of the storms may be strong or locally
severe, with large hail the main threat.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Periods of showers and storms will continue into the first part of
the weekend. There is a 50 to 60 percent chance of exceeding 2
inches through the weekend, which may result in localized flooding
and rises along area waterways.
Ahead of a cold front Thursday afternoon and evening, there is a risk
of strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds, large hail, and a
few tornadoes are possible.
Cooler weather arrives early next week, and there is a 40 to 60
percent chance of temperatures below freezing Sunday night.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed through about 8 pm.
ILZ038-042>046-048-051>057-061-011100-
McLean-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Menard-Sangamon-
Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
255 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and east
central Illinois, generally from near the I-55 corridor east to the
Indiana border.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early evening, with the
threat diminishing from north to south later tonight as a front
moves through the area. Some of the storms may be strong or locally
severe, with large hail the main threat.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Periods of showers and storms will continue into the first part of
the weekend. There is a 50 to 60 percent chance of exceeding 2
inches through the weekend, which may result in localized flooding
and rises along area waterways.
Ahead of a cold front Thursday afternoon and evening, there is a risk
of strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds, large hail, and a
few tornadoes are possible. Also, windy conditions are likely ahead
of the storms Thursday, with gusts of 40 to 45 mph most likely near
and east of I-57.
Cooler weather arrives early next week, and there is a 40 to 60
percent chance of temperatures below freezing Sunday night.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed between 6 pm and midnight.
ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-011100-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
255 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Illinois.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this evening, and
will be most numerous near I-70. A few of the storms may produce
large hail.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Periods of showers and storms will continue into the first part of
the weekend. There is a 30 to 50 percent chance of exceeding 2
inches through the weekend.
Ahead of a cold front Thursday afternoon and evening, there is a
risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds and large
hail are most likely.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed after 8 pm.
Geelhart
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Mar 31, 9:36 PM CST, 2 hours 24 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1036 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
ILZ043-010400-
De Witt-
1036 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DE WITT COUNTY
THROUGH 1100 PM CDT...
At 1035 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kenney, or near Clinton, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Clinton, Kenney, Lane, and Weldon Springs State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 4005 8912 4011 8912 4019 8885 4006 8881
TIME...MOT...LOC 0335Z 256DEG 24KT 4008 8904
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
37Special weather statement, Mar 31, 10:06 PM CST, 1 hour 54 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1106 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
ILZ043-044-010430-
Piatt-De Witt-
1106 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN PIATT AND EAST CENTRAL
DE WITT COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 PM CDT...
At 1106 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Weldon, or 10 miles northwest of Monticello, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, De Land, Galesville, and Lodge.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 72 between mile markers 171 and 173.
Interstate 74 between mile markers 161 and 167.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 4010 8872 4019 8875 4028 8849 4009 8847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0406Z 256DEG 24KT 4014 8870
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
37Special weather statement, Mar 31, 10:10 PM CST, 1 hour 50 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1110 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
ILZ042-043-010430-
Logan-De Witt-
1110 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL LOGAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN DE WITT COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 PM CDT...
At 1110 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kenney, or 8 miles southwest of Clinton, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.
Locations impacted include...
Clinton, Wapella, Kenney, Hallsville, Weldon Springs State Park, and
Midland City.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 4006 8916 4013 8917 4022 8895 4006 8890
TIME...MOT...LOC 0410Z 256DEG 24KT 4010 8911
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH
37
Special weather statement, Mar 31, 10:27 PM CST, 1 hour 33 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1127 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
ILZ043-010445-
De Witt-
1127 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN DE WITT COUNTY
THROUGH 1145 PM CDT...
At 1127 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clinton, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Clinton, Wapella, and Hallsville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4012 8910 4019 8914 4028 8891 4014 8886
TIME...MOT...LOC 0427Z 254DEG 25KT 4016 8905
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
37Special weather statement, Mar 31, 10:39 PM CST, 1 hour 21 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1139 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
ILZ038-042-043-010500-
Logan-De Witt-McLean-
1139 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LOGAN...
NORTHWESTERN DE WITT AND SOUTHWESTERN MCLEAN COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT CDT...
At 1138 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Atlanta, or 12 miles northeast of Lincoln, moving northeast at 25
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Heyworth, Atlanta, McLean, and Shirley.
This includes Interstate 55 between mile markers 139 and 153.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4023 8920 4028 8927 4045 8910 4029 8893
TIME...MOT...LOC 0438Z 237DEG 23KT 4027 8919
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
37Special weather statement, Mar 31, 10:59 PM CST, 1 hour 1 minute before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1159 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
ILZ038-010515-
McLean-
1159 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL MCLEAN COUNTY
THROUGH 1215 AM CDT...
At 1159 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Heyworth, or 10 miles south of Bloomington, moving northeast at 30
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Le Roy, Heyworth, and Downs.
This includes Interstate 74 between mile markers 138 and 150.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4029 8906 4034 8909 4049 8885 4029 8872
TIME...MOT...LOC 0459Z 245DEG 26KT 4032 8901
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
37