Persistent drought created an environment ripe for wildfire through much of May. Sporadic thunderstorm activity produced lightning which ignited a few wildfires.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.
Persistent drought created an environment ripe for wildfire through much of May. Sporadic thunderstorm activity produced lightning which ignited a few wildfires.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 18, 12:18 PM EST, 1 hour 42 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
118 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026
...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 112 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026
- High risk of rip currents along the east coast of South
Florida will continue through at least Tuesday evening as
breezy easterly winds prevail.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly
across SW Florida again today. Low-end chance for an
isolated severe thunderstorm. Rain chances will remain
elevated over the next several days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 112 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026
Models and synoptic charts describe a relatively deep high pressure
ridge still dominating the SE CONUS and the northern portions of the
peninsula, while a weakening U/L low meanders around the Bahamas
just east of Florida. Morning convective activity on radar looked
very similar to the previous day with training of showers and
embedded thunderstorms focusing over east/central Broward, and
interior Miami-Dade counties, although rainfall rates have been
lower so far.
Convection is expected to continue to shift towards interior and
west coast areas through the rest of this afternoon and early
evening hours as the easterly flow keeps the Gulf breeze limited to
the immediate west coastline. Thermodyn parameters remain favorable
enough for possible strong to isolated severe cells to develop,
including max SBCAPE around 3000 j/kg, MFL and model sounding
PWATs close to 2", along with steep lapse rates through the late
afternoon hours. Best chances for the strongest updrafts will
again reside along collision boundaries, especially where the Gulf
breeze meets the easterly flow.
Similar scenario is expected on Tuesday, with the easterly flow
dominating the Gulf breeze and favoring convection on the western
half of SoFlo. However, slightly warmer temps aloft and hints of
possible mid-lvl drier air intrusion may result in weaker cells.
Nighttime lows should remain warm with mid-upper 70s near the
coasts, and low 70s inland. High temperatures for Tuesday will
again range from the mid-upper 80s in SE Florida, to low-mid 90s
over SW Florida.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1257 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026
Longwave ridging will be the dominant pattern aloft for the eastern
CONUS during the middle portion of the week. Florida will find
itself in between an H5 centroid to its west over the southern
Gulf and an H5 centroid to its east near Bermuda. Within the
overall ridging pattern, ensemble guidance is in pretty good
agreement of showing a cut off low meandering around the northern
Caribbean just east of the Bahamas. This area of low pressure will
provide increased forcing for storms over the Atlantic waters as
several lobes of vorticity advect westward near the vicinity of
the Florida coastline. Florida will remain under rich moisture
through the period, but some deeper pockets look to raise PWATs
to near 1.8 inches, which is within the 75th percentile for this
time of year. At the surface, winds will remain mostly easterly,
but wind speeds will be slightly weaker than in the beginning of
the week as pressure gradients relax across the eastern seaboard.
As a result of this predominant easterly flow, the Gulf breeze
won't be able to advance as far east. This will result in most
afternoon thunderstorm activity favoring interior and portions of
southwest Florida each day. Overall, PoPs will generally be in the
30% to 40% range across the peninsula each day, with higher 55%
to 65% PoPs along the sea breeze convergence zones. Main threats
will be frequent lightning, locally heavy downpours, and gusty
winds.
Despite the cutoff low nearby, 500 mb heights will actually be
between 586 to 589 dm across South Florida, which is near to
slightly above average for this time of year. This will in turn lead
to slightly above normal temperatures area wide, with high
temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. With moisture staying
steady throughout the week, heat indices will remain in the upper
90s and lower 100s through the period as well. Zooming into the
forecast a little bit, diurnal heating will drive most of these
high temperatures each afternoon. But, with increased chances of
showers moving onshore from the Gulfstream during the morning
(particularly for the middle part of the week), cloud cover and
rain may keep things cooler over certain spots during the day.
Conversely, increased cloud cover and rain during the nighttime
hours may suppress radiational cooling and keep things slightly
warmer overnight. For the most part, widespread Moderate HeatRisk
(level 2 of 4) is expected each day. However, long range ensembles
are indicating that pressure heights will increase slightly as
longwave ridging shifts east and the cut off low dissolves. This
will result in warmer temperatures for the weekend, with the NWS
Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk tool showing a 40 to 50 percent
chance of Major heat impacts for the east coast metro areas.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026
Periods of breezy/gusty easterly winds are still possible over
the Atl terminals through around 00Z, then remaining moderate
tonight. SHRA could still affect the Atl terminals through this
evening, but the best chances for periods of MVFR/IFR cig/vis will
happen at APF with thunderstorm activity developing along the
west coast. VFR should then prevail after 00-01Z tonight, with
another round of morning showers possible Tuesday, starting at the
Atl terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 119 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026
A moderate to fresh easterly breeze will remain established across
the local waters early this week. Scattered showers and storms will
be possible each day with extra activity expected for the Gulf
waters compared to the Atlantic waters. Periods of rough seas and
gustier winds are expected in and around thunderstorm activity.
Atlantic seas early this week are expected generally at 3-4 feet
with Gulf seas of 2 feet or less.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 119 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026
A high risk for rip currents continues for all of the Atlantic
beaches early this week as breezy onshore winds persist.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 78 87 77 88 / 30 40 20 20
West Kendall 75 89 74 89 / 30 50 10 30
Opa-Locka 77 88 77 89 / 30 40 20 20
Homestead 77 88 77 88 / 40 40 20 20
Fort Lauderdale 78 86 78 86 / 40 40 30 20
N Ft Lauderdale 77 85 77 86 / 40 30 20 20
Pembroke Pines 78 90 78 90 / 30 30 20 20
West Palm Beach 77 86 77 86 / 40 30 10 20
Boca Raton 78 86 78 86 / 40 30 20 20
Naples 74 92 74 92 / 20 90 10 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....NMP
AVIATION...17The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
Florida Forest Service reports that the Rifle Range Rd wildfire burned a total area of 650 acres in Collier County.
Florida Forest Service reported that the MM-44 wildfire in Broward County reached 1,200 acres in size from the morning of May 23rd until it was fully contained on the morning of May 26th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1344382, 1344379.