Damaging Wind in Florida, May 11, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
733 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast
  this afternoon and evening, with activity pushing back towards
  the coast and offshore. This diurnal coverage will continue
  through early to mid-week.

- Some storms and may be strong to severe through this evening and
  again on Tuesday. Primary storm hazards are frequent lightning,
  strong to damaging winds, hail, and torrential downpours. A
  brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

- Temperatures become more seasonable into Tuesday and Wednesday
  before slowly increasing once again into late week into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Currently-Tonight...Forecast for the remainder of the afternoon and
into this evening remains on track. Scattered showers and storms
will develop with the inland moving sea breeze boundaries, with
strong to isolated severe storms possible, especially as boundary
collisions occur near to southeast of I-4 corridor. This activity
will shift east back toward the coast and offshore through the late
afternoon and into this evening. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of
severe weather continues across much of east central Florida for
this afternoon and evening. Main threats from storms will continue
to be strong to locally damaging winds up to 40-60 mph, coin-sized
hail, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. However, still
can't rule out a brief tornado as storms interact with the east
coast sea breeze.

Convection diminishes into this evening, with some lingering rain
chances (20-30%), and a slight chance for storms north of Orlando
overnight as a weak front pushes slowly southward toward central FL.
Remaining warm and humid tonight, with lows in the low to mid 70s
for much of the area.

Tuesday...Weak front moves gradually southward across the area
tomorrow, with a moist (PW 1.9-2.0") and unstable airmass in place.
Showers and storms will have an earlier start initially along the
front across northern portions of east central Florida into the
morning/early afternoon, with coverage increasing farther south and
inland through the remainder of the day. High rain chances (~70%)
forecast across the area, with showers and storms becoming scattered
to numerous. CAPE will be around 1000-2000 J/kg, with 0-6km bulk
shear values increasing to 35-45 knots, which should again help lead
to strong to isolated severe storm development. A Marginal Risk
(Level 1 of 5) for severe weather has been added to the Day 2
outlook. The main storm threats will again be frequent lightning
strikes, strong to locally damaging wind gusts up to 40-60 mph, coin-
sized hail and locally heavy rainfall, with a very low threat for a
brief tornado. The increase in cloud cover and higher convective
coverage will keep max temps closer to normal tomorrow, in the mid
to upper 80s.

Front will linger across central Florida into Tuesday night as it
continues a slow southward movement. Low level flow becomes onshore,
which will keep a chance for onshore moving showers and a few
storms, primarily along the coast overnight. Lows tomorrow night
will fall into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Weak front will
linger across the area Wednesday and either fade or gradually shift
south as a passing S/W develops an area of low pressure well
offshore. This low will then shift northeast, with high pressure
building down through the Southeast U.S. and offshore late week into
the weekend. Winds become a little more variable into Wednesday and
then become northwest Thursday, before eventually veering back
onshore into late week through the weekend. The east coast sea
breeze will form each afternoon, enhancing the winds to 10-15 mph.
Lingering moisture and instability will be slow to dissipate,
keeping higher rain chances (up to 60-70%) through Wednesday, with
shortwave energy aloft aiding convection. Rain chances then decrease
through late week to 20% southeast of I-4 on Thursday, with mostly
dry conditions forecast Friday. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms (20-30 percent) return Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures
remain closer to seasonal values on Wednesday (in the mid to upper
80s), but then steadily increase into the low 90s across the
interior into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Tonight-Tuesday...Scattered offshore moving storms, some which may
be strong to severe, will be the primary hazard to boaters through
this afternoon and evening. Additional isolated to scattered shower
and storm development is forecast overnight, mainly across the
offshore waters and north of the Cape as a weak front nears the area
late tonight. Outside of storms, winds and seas should remain
generally favorable tonight, with south-southeast winds this evening
becoming south-southwest overnight, and then west-northwest late,
near to north of the Cape. Wind speeds will remain less than 15
knots through tonight, with seas around 2 feet.

Boating conditions will then deteriorate into Tuesday as front
settles slowly southward across the waters, and winds quickly veer
onshore. Winds will become east-northeast and increase up to
15-20 knots over the offshore waters, north of Sebastian Inlet
into the afternoon. This will build seas up to 4-6 feet,
potentially up to 7 feet briefly over the offshore waters of
Volusia County through Tuesday night. High coverage of showers and
storms forecast across the waters with the front moving in, and
some strong to isolated severe storms will still be possible.

Wednesday-Saturday...Front gradually fades with scattered to
numerous showers and storms lingering through Wednesday, before rain
chances decrease late in the week into the weekend. Low pressure
develops well offshore and lifts northeast, with onshore winds
Wednesday becoming north-northwest into Thursday. Winds then
become onshore through late week into Saturday as high pressure
builds down into the Southeast United States and offshore. Wind
speeds remain below 15 knots and seas gradually decrease to 3-5
feet Wednesday, 2-4 feet Thursday and 2-3 feet Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 721 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Showers and a few storms, mainly from MLB southward are forecast
to linger over the next hour or two as they drift offshore from
the Treasure Coast. Then, drier conditions prevail through the
overnight hours, with variable winds 6 kts or less.

CAMs suggest an active afternoon on Tuesday, with widespread
coverage of showers and storms after 18Z. However, run to run
consistency leaves a bit to be desired. So, will need to monitor
with upcoming TAF packages. For now, have VCTS developing from
north to south from 17-19Z. TEMPOs will likely be needed at times
for VIS/CIG reductions in any stronger storms. Outside of
convection, E/ENE winds increase to 8-12 kts Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  83  70  84 /  30  70  50  60
MCO  74  86  70  86 /  20  70  40  60
MLB  75  84  73  84 /  50  70  50  60
VRB  74  86  73  85 /  50  70  60  70
LEE  73  85  69  86 /  20  70  40  60
SFB  73  86  69  87 /  20  70  40  70
ORL  74  86  70  86 /  20  70  40  60
FPR  74  86  73  85 /  50  70  60  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Wishard

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
514 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

FLZ154-159-112130-
Coastal St. Lucie FL-Coastal Indian River FL-
514 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY
THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

At 514 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
South Beach, or near Indrio, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Vero Beach, Vero Beach South, South Beach, Lakewood Park, and
Moorings Of Vero Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. On rare occasions they can briefly touch down, producing wind
gusts over 50 mph. If a funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and
report your sighting to the National Weather Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2753 8039 2763 8040 2766 8033 2751 8026
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 261DEG 12KT 2757 8034

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Kelly

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
651 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

FLZ053-547-112315-
Osceola FL-Inland Southern Brevard FL-
651 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWEST BREVARD AND EAST
CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

At 650 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Palm Bay, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Palm Bay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. On rare occasions they can briefly touch down, producing wind
gusts over 50 mph. If a funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and
report your sighting to the National Weather Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2791 8067 2782 8078 2784 8103 2808 8074
      2802 8065 2801 8064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 297DEG 7KT 2796 8080

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Kelly

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
743 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

FLZ254-547-647-120015-
Inland Indian River FL-Inland Southern Brevard FL-
Mainland Southern Brevard FL-
743 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN INDIAN RIVER AND
SOUTH CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

At 743 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Blue Cypress Lake, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Palm Bay, Fellsmere, Barefoot Bay, Blue Cypress Lake, and Micco.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2782 8054 2782 8055 2779 8055 2764 8061
      2777 8087 2793 8078 2791 8050
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 291DEG 10KT 2783 8074

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
808 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

FLZ154-254-547-647-747-120100-
Southern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-Inland Indian River FL-
Coastal Indian River FL-Inland Southern Brevard FL-
Mainland Southern Brevard FL-
808 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT INDIAN RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN
BREVARD COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

At 808 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fellsmere, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Palm Bay, Sebastian, Fellsmere, Sebastian Highlands, and Roseland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2756 8062 2756 8069 2774 8088 2782 8088
      2793 8074 2789 8043 2783 8040
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 293DEG 16KT 2779 8065

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
911 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

FLZ154-159-259-120200-
Coastal St. Lucie FL-Inland St. Lucie FL-Coastal Indian River FL-
911 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ST. LUCIE AND
SOUTHEASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...

At 911 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lakewood Park, or near Indrio, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Pierce, Vero Beach South, Fort Pierce Inlet, White City, and
Indrio.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2740 8025 2727 8042 2750 8059 2756 8053
      2756 8048 2757 8049 2759 8050 2762 8046
      2762 8031 2744 8023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 310DEG 14KT 2752 8046

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Schaper