Drought in Florida, April 1 to 30, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
725 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 718 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

    - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast
      beaches for much of the work week.

    - Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the
      Biscayne Bay & Atlantic waters over the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 113 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

05z RTMA & ACARS data this morning indicate that the axis of mid-
level ridging is now located directly over South Florida with a
substantial layer of dry air in the vertical column above 600mb and
an easily identifiable subsidence inversion on the 00z MFL sounding
earlier tonight. A continued tight pressure gradient across the
region has resulted in a continuation of breezy easterly flow and
the advection of low-topped isolated to scattered showers briskly
moving from east to west.Surface analysis of isobars indicates a
continued strengthening of surface ridging across the region as
pressure heights gradually increase and what is left of the decayed
frontal boundary slides to the southwest of the region. Mesoscale
models such as the HRRR, RRFS, and RAP all depict the continuation
of low end rain chances across the region over the course of today
even as the deeper atmospheric moisture slides west of the region
today as the surface ridge continues to build in from the northeast.
While mesoscale models don't depict a plethora of activity for the
remainder of today, it would be wise to not bet against a strong
easterly breeze over the instability laden waters of the nearby
Gulfstream to produce additional isolated to scattered shower
activity. Blended the NAMdng and CONSShort models together to better
account for rain chances (20-30%) with a foci of elevated rain
chances along the immediate east coast for the remainder of the
morning before the highest rain chances shift to the Gulf coast this
afternoon and evening. Accumulations will remain fairly light today
as the mid-level ridge overhead and dry air aloft acts to suppress
any vertical height to convection.

Aloft, the axis of mid-level ridging will advect into the western
Atlantic waters by Wednesday, gradually elongating and weakening in
intensity as 500mb pressure heights gradually decrease during the
day. At the surface, continued enhancement of surface ridging will
advect a drier airmass into the region from the northeast resulting
in a further reduction of rain chances during the day on Wednesday
while the persistent easterly breeze remains the status quo. Still
cannot rule out a few isolated showers given the mesoscale and
topographical setup in this flow regime but rain chances will remain
much lower than what we have seen over the past two days.

A temperature gradient will remain across the region both this
afternoon and once again on Wednesday with high temperatures in the
upper 70s to low 80s across the eastern half of the peninsula due to
the cooling aspects of the ocean breeze and the western half of the
peninsula peaking in the mid 80s. Overnight temperatures will be
inverse as the ocean breeze will keep warm and muggy conditons along
the east coast with low temps in the 70s whereas inland and western
locales will see low temperatures dip into the widespread 60s, even
low 60s across cool spots across inland southwestern Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 113 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A persistent easterly breeze will remain the norm throughout the
extended period as South Florida remains on the periphery of an
expansive area of high pressure situated across the majority of the
western Atlantic. Upstream, amplified mid-level troughing will
develop across the central United States and advect eastward on
Thursday into much of the southeastern United States. Interestingly,
a assortment of deterministic and ensemble model guidance continues
to depict this lobe of vorticity slowing across the northern Gulf
during the second half of the week and undergoing a messy evolution
(multiple mid-level impulses congealing?) into a cut-off low which
is then forecast to slowly transit across the region late this week
into the upcoming weekend. The latest deterministic and ensemble GFS
shows a more defined feature transiting directly overhead whereas
the European model guidance has a less defined feature and a more
southern trajectory during the upcoming weekend. It appears a more
active synoptic pattern may evolve late in the week into the
upcoming weekend as the combination of synoptic enhancement aloft
and increasing moisture advection at the surface from the east could
increase rain chances during this time frame.

High temperatures for the remainder of the week will be on a slow
moderating trend with lower 80s anticipated along the east coast and
mid to upper 80s across Southwest Florida each afternoon.
Temperatures this weekend will largely depend on the evolution of
the cut-off low and subsequent rain chances. With the easterly
breeze eventually lessening in strength during the upcoming weekend
into early next week , the temperature gradient across the region
will become far less defined as time progresses onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

VFR conditions for all sites throughout the period. Guidance still
continues to show a couple of showers may move across South
Florida in the next few hours, but confidence on whether these
rain showers may even materialize is low. Breezy easterly winds
will prevail throughout the area into tomorrow, with some stronger
gusts up to 20 kts during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic
waters through much of this week mainly due to a persistent strong
easterly breeze. Winds may decrease below Small Craft criteria at
times across the Atlantic waters although resurgence in wind
speeds back to criteria level remains in the forecast at this
time. Seas across the Atlantic waters will mainly remain in the
4-6 ft range for the remainder of the work week with wave heights
forecast to remain in the 2-4 ft range across the local Gulf
waters. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely
continue across our local Atlantic waters for much of the work
week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Dangerous rip currents will continue at all Atlantic beaches through
the remainder of the work week as strong onshore winds persist.
Always swim at a guarded beach and when in doubt, don't venture
out!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            70  80  71  81 /   0  10  20  40
West Kendall     65  83  67  84 /   0  10  10  30
Opa-Locka        69  82  70  83 /   0  10  20  40
Homestead        70  81  70  82 /   0   0  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  70  79  71  79 /   0  10  20  40
N Ft Lauderdale  70  79  70  79 /   0  10  20  50
Pembroke Pines   69  83  71  84 /   0  10  20  40
West Palm Beach  69  80  70  80 /   0  10  20  40
Boca Raton       69  79  70  80 /   0  10  20  50
Naples           66  85  67  85 /   0  10   0  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...Porcelli