Damaging Wind in Delaware, May 27, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
631 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for the 12z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Unsettled today with scattered showers and thunderstorms,
with a low chance for severe thunderstorms over Delmarva later
this afternoon.

2. Drier and more seasonable conditions return for the end of
the week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled today with scattered showers and
thunderstorms, with a low chance for severe thunderstorms over
Delmarva later this afternoon.

Some showers are moving through this morning as an area of low
pressure rides along a stalled boundary planted just to the
south of the area. One final day of unsettled weather is
expected before a cold front moving in from the northwest sweeps
in and high pressure moves in behind the front.

For this morning, scattered showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms will continue to move through. Bulk of the
precipitation is concentration south of I-78 and that should
remain the case through the rest of the morning. Not expecting
any severe weather this round of showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

For this afternoon though, the story changes a little bit. An
incoming trough and associated cold front at the surface could
trigger another round of thunderstorms. Strongest forcing will
be in the vicinity of the stalled boundary which will be to our
south and west. Higher instability and shear will also be
displaced from our region. However, over towards Maryland, more
favorable conditions exist for the development of some clusters
of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. The CAMs for
this afternoon do indicate that these clusters could cross the
Chesapeake and move into Delmarva later this afternoon,
potentially bringing some damaging wind gusts. SPC maintains a
Slight Risk (2/5) that clips the Eastern Shore and southern
Delaware, with a majority of the Eastern Shore and Delaware in a
Marginal Risk (1/5). This is about right as the bigger threat
for severe weather will be to our south and west, but some
storms could make it into the southern part of the area. For New
Jersey and Pennsylvania, things should be more tranquil this
afternoon, though cannot rule out a few showers or isolated
thunderstorms as the cold front moves in from the northwest. Not
expecting any severe weather today north of the Mason-Dixon
line.

Rainfall amounts in our area will range from a few hundredths
over northern NJ or the Poconos to around a half inch or even
more if thunderstorms move over any certain area over Delmarva.
Not expecting any flooding concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier and more seasonable conditions return for
the end of the week into the weekend.

High pressure moves in for the end of the week as an Omega Block
sets up over the central CONUS. High pressure will remain in
control through at least Sunday with dry conditions expected.
Some guidance is hinting at an upper level low swinging down for
the start of next week, which could bring some unsettled
weather, but confidence is low in the forecast beyond Sunday.

Temperatures through the extended look to be near or even a
little below normal for late May/early June. It still should be
a pleasant start to meteorological summer though.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...MVFR/IFR to start for most locations (the exception
being KABE where it should stay VFR) as showers move in. Have
removed thunder from the TAFs as morning radar does not show
much in terms of thunderstorms. Cannot rule it out completely
but felt the threat was low enough to remove from the TAFs.
Showers move out by 14z-17z with stratus departing not long
after. Primarily VFR conditions expected for the afternoon and
evening as further showers and thunderstorms should stay off to
the south. Winds start out of the southwest around 5 kt and
increase to around 10 kt later this morning more out of the
west. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR as a dry cold front moves through, resulting in
winds going more northwesterly between 02z-05z, around 5-10 kt.
High confidence.

Thursday...VFR. Northwest winds around 10 kt with gusts near 20
kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday Night through Sunday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions expected through tonight. Winds will be
southwesterly for today, shifting to a northwesterly direction
for tonight as a cold front passes, with a speed of around 10 kt.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected for today,
especially south of Little Egg Inlet on the ocean and within
Delaware Bay.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...No marine headlines expected. Slight
chance (15-20%) of needing an SCA on Saturday Night as seas
could near 5 feet.

Rip Currents...

The next two days will feature offshore winds, a medium period 7
to 8 second swell, and breaking waves of around 2 feet. This
will result in a LOW risk for the development of rip currents
for both today and Thursday.

Ocean temperatures are mainly in the 50s to low 60s. These cold
water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical
incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hoeflich
AVIATION...Hoeflich
MARINE...Hoeflich

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
505 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

MDZ012-015-019-020-280915-
Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
505 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Hoeflich